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Come back to the 5 & Dime, Jimmy G

What if Stafford is out?

Matthew Stafford is missing time at Rams camp due to back soreness. Stafford is 37 years old and the offense fell apart when he missed half of the 2022 season, so it's something to factor into one's rankings. Somewhat.

NFL analyst Peter Schrager isn't concerned at this point. "I don't think there is a great level of concern as far as Matthew Stafford being ready for Week 1," he said. "I think the Rams are just being ultra cautious." NFL watchers are aware that Sean McVay is the king of being ultra cautious. He doesn't play anyone in the preseason, and he didn't play anyone in Week 18 last year even with a chance to impact playoff seeding.

When Stafford missed time in 2022, the Rams were not prepared for his absence. The only other quarterbacks they had initially were Bryce Perkins (1 start) and John Wolford (3 starts). If you haven't heard of either player, it's because neither one has appeared in an NFL game (even as a backup) since those fill-in starts three years ago. The Rams ended up adding Baker Mayfield, he finished out the season, and parlayed it into his current strong play for Tampa Bay the last two years.

Los Angeles' current backup, should Stafford miss time, is Handsome Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo the last two years has played six full games for the Raiders and one full game for the Rams, in a meaningless finale last year. I think those are worth looking at to see how he might fare if called upon to start.

In those seven games, he averaged 220 passing yards and threw 9 TDs (1.3 per week). Not great (that's why the Raiders moved on from him quickly). But the counter argument is he sure did well running Sean McVay's offense last year, throwing for 334 yards and 2 TDs in that Week 18 game against Seattle.

GAROPPOLO SINCE LEAVING SAN FRANCISCO
YearOppPassRunTDIntSk
2023at Den.20011210
2023at Buf.1851120
2023Pit.3247234
2023G.B.2084113
2023N.E.1624110
2023at Det.12612016
2024Sea.3345213
Average22061.31.42.3

I included Jimmy's sack and interception to figures to highlight that if he does make starts, I'll be interested in the defenses facing him. He averaged 1.4 interceptions and 2.3 sacks in those seven games.

It's a small sample set, but I think it's fair to split the difference between the modest numbers he put up with the Raiders and the huge numbers he put up in his single start for the Rams.

No question the offense would miss Stafford; there's a reason why Jimmy G is a journeyman backup. But at least the potential is there for Garoppolo to fare better than the Perkins and Wolfords of the world. If it starts to look like Stafford will miss time, I tend to think that Puka Nacua and Davante Adams will be fine. Not as good, but I won't regret my investments in them thus far.

--Andy Richardson

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