I’ve had a few guys asking about looking ahead for matchups with defenses in Weeks 15 and 16. Others are miffed we don’t do the Redrafter in December.
But Redrafter becomes an iffy product at this time of the year, with a lot of teams caring about now only, others worried only about Week 15 and some including Week 17. Spending two thirds of Monday working on the Redrafter takes away from the quality of the regular Weekly. I think you’ll notice the difference in today’s issue – there’s a little more in depth look, for example, at defenses.
Anyway, let me offer this as a peace offering.
Check out the below chart. It contains no “analysis”. It does not factor in, for example, that the Rams are getting a lot more sacks now than they were in the first half of the season. And it doesn’t include that if Johnny Manziel gets plugged into Cleveland’s lineup in Week 15 or 16, the sacks and interceptions will start flowing.
But it’s a start.
What I did was this. I took the average defensive points scored by each team (using 6 points for TDs on takeaways or kick returns, 2 for takeaways and 1 for each sack) and averaged them against each remaining team that will be played. Then I ranked them 1 thru 32 each week.
Houston, for example, has a choice matchup this week against Jacksonville, so they’re the No. 1 team for Week 14. (This is what the numbers tell us, and we’ve also got the Texans at No. 1 on our board this week). Reading across the board, Houston projects to be 4th in Week 15, 15th in Week 16 (when it has a lesser matchup) and back up to 2nd in Week 17 when it gets the Jaguars again. For the four weeks, Houston projects to score 8.6 fantasy points per week, the 2nd-highest total of any defense.
These aren’t official rankings. The numbers haven’t been worked to account for injuries and who’s hot and whatnot. They’re just what should happen if everyone keeps playing just like they’ve been playing. But they’re a rough draft start.
| DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Pts |
| 1. | Philadelphia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9.8 |
| 2. | Houston | 1 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 8.6 |
| 3. | Green Bay | 7 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 7.6 |
| 4. | Arizona | 14 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 7.6 |
| 5. | St. Louis | 3 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 7.3 |
| 6. | Buffalo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 7.2 |
| 7. | Minnesota | 4 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 7.1 |
| 8. | NY Giants | 17 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 7.0 |
| 9. | Tennessee | 12 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 7.0 |
| 10. | New England | 18 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 7.0 |
| 11. | Dallas | 11 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 6.9 |
| 12. | Detroit | 6 | 14 | 9 | 24 | 6.8 |
| 13. | Miami | 24 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 6.7 |
| 14. | Seattle | 10 | 13 | 29 | 3 | 6.7 |
| 15. | Indianapolis | 22 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 6.7 |
| 16. | Washington | 5 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 6.7 |
| 17. | Baltimore | 21 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 6.5 |
| 18. | Chicago | 9 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 6.4 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay | 25 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 6.3 |
| 20. | Atlanta | 27 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 6.3 |
| 21. | Jacksonville | 20 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 6.2 |
| 22. | Cleveland | 16 | 25 | 8 | 29 | 6.2 |
| 23. | San Francisco | 8 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 6.1 |
| 24. | New Orleans | 15 | 22 | 27 | 17 | 6.1 |
| 25. | Pittsburgh | 23 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 6.1 |
| 26. | Denver | 19 | 28 | 25 | 12 | 6.1 |
| 27. | Carolina | 26 | 9 | 28 | 23 | 5.9 |
| 28. | Kansas City | 31 | 18 | 24 | 28 | 5.5 |
| 29. | NY Jets | 30 | 27 | 32 | 30 | 4.8 |
| 30. | Cincinnati | 28 | 30 | 31 | 27 | 4.8 |
| 31. | San Diego | 32 | 32 | 20 | 31 | 4.6 |
| 32. | Oakland | 29 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 4.3 |
Some might not like the idea of includes touchdowns and special teams. Those can involve a lot of luck.
So here’s an alternate take: The same numbers, except minus the touchdowns. So teams don’t get a big bonus for facing the Rams (who have allowed 9 TDs on returns). And Philadelphia (with 10 TDs) isn’t a shoo-in to be the top team.
Looking at the numbers, however, Philadelphia is way up there anyway. That’s without them even getting credit for those 10 touchdowns.
On this one, I’m using the scoring system of 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for each sack.
| DEFENSES (Sacks and Takeaways) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | Pts |
| 1. | Houston | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 6.6 |
| 2. | Philadelphia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6.5 |
| 3. | Buffalo | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 6.0 |
| 4. | Green Bay | 11 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 5.9 |
| 5. | Tennessee | 6 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 5.9 |
| 6. | NY Giants | 7 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 5.8 |
| 7. | Indianapolis | 22 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 5.7 |
| 8. | Minnesota | 4 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 5.7 |
| 9. | Baltimore | 15 | 1 | 19 | 23 | 5.6 |
| 10. | St. Louis | 2 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 5.6 |
| 11. | Detroit | 3 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 5.6 |
| 12. | Dallas | 13 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 5.5 |
| 13. | New England | 23 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 5.5 |
| 14. | Chicago | 8 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 5.5 |
| 15. | Washington | 14 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 5.5 |
| 16. | Arizona | 18 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 5.5 |
| 17. | Miami | 24 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 5.4 |
| 18. | Jacksonville | 21 | 26 | 7 | 18 | 5.4 |
| 19. | Cleveland | 12 | 23 | 8 | 26 | 5.3 |
| 20. | Tampa Bay | 17 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 5.2 |
| 21. | Denver | 20 | 25 | 23 | 10 | 5.2 |
| 22. | San Francisco | 5 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 5.2 |
| 23. | New Orleans | 19 | 20 | 26 | 12 | 5.2 |
| 24. | Carolina | 25 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 5.1 |
| 25. | Atlanta | 28 | 17 | 20 | 8 | 5.1 |
| 26. | Seattle | 16 | 18 | 29 | 15 | 5.1 |
| 27. | Kansas City | 31 | 21 | 21 | 29 | 4.6 |
| 28. | NY Jets | 27 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 4.4 |
| 29. | Cincinnati | 26 | 30 | 31 | 24 | 4.4 |
| 30. | Pittsburgh | 30 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 4.3 |
| 31. | San Diego | 32 | 32 | 24 | 30 | 3.9 |
| 32. | Oakland | 29 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 3.6 |
Again, these numbers aren’t gospel. This might be kind of a voodoo math deal.
But it’s a starting point for the discussion, in which you start trying to hone in on defenses that could help in Weeks 15 and beyond.
—Ian Allan