Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Is Thomas Rawls a viable goal-line runner? When do you quit on a struggling player? And making the tough starter decisions in a variety of championship games.
Question 1
As a Thomas Rawls owner in a basic scoring league, the recent flap about Richard Sherman's criticism of the Seahawks play calling reminded me that Rawls is not a sure-thing to get the Hawks' goal-line carries. The Seahawks don't have a bruising short-yardage back (e.g. a Blount or Gillislee), but do have a below-average O-line and a creative QB in Wilson. Hence, I'm not sure I can fault Darrell Bevell's play-calling at the goal-line. In the Russell Wilson era, are Bevell and the Seahawks poor at converting short yardage plays? I know that Wilson has not been a statistically effective red-zone QB, so maybe this dovetails with that tendency?
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
This may surprise you, but Wilson actually hasn’t been very good around the goal line. Statistically, anyway. When it’s fourth-and-goal from the 5-yard line in final seconds of a playoff game, with the team needing a touchdown to win, I can’t think of 10 quarterbacks I would rather have than Wilson. But strictly off the numbers, he hasn’t been great in that part of the field. So far this year, he’s completed 9 of 24 passes inside the 10, with 7 TDs. In the 2015 season, he was similar – 10 of 27, with 9 TDs. That’s kind of what he is. Totaling up those numbers, he’s completed 37 percent. Including 2 sacks, he’s successfully put the ball in the end zone on 30 percent of his plays. So where were we? Yes, you’ve got Rawls. I think he’s been coming on, and he’s a good back. You definitely start him this week at home against Arizona. And in Week 17, they’re playing against the worst run defense in the league (San Francisco); assuming their going in with pistols loaded, you would love to start him in that one as well.
Question 2
I had DeSean Jackson in one of my leagues and stuck with him until about week 10. Finally, after many weeks of nothing, I dropped him. Since then, he has been very good. My question is how do you know when to pull the plug on a player (not just Jackson, but any player who is under-performing)?
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Avon Park, FL)
You can beat yourself up over being too quick to give up on a player. I released Jay Ajayi in a league this year after he didn’t even fly with the team to their Week 1 game. But there’s a value in being aggressive and quick. That is, the more common mistake is to be too slow to pounce on emerging players, and to be too slow to give up on players who simply aren’t doing what they’ve done in the past. If you’re aggressive on the waiver wire, that means you’re more likely to wind up with players like Ty Montgomery and Robert Kelley. And if you’re going to aggressively go after players like that every week, the downside is that when you look back are all the players you’ve cycled through at the end of the year, you’ll find that you’ve also quit too early on a few. In most leagues I think this is OK – I think you’ll come out ahead when being more aggressive. But when making roster adjustments, we should ask ourselves about the potential for the player to rebound. In the case of DeSean Jackson, we saw in the preseason that he was very much in shape and capable of getting deep for big plays like he has in previous years.
Question 3
Thanks for another great year of analysis and insight ... you rock! I am in our championship game for Week 16 and have some tough situations. Do I start Brady (already clinched home field) or Dak Prescott? David Johnson (Cards eliminated from playoffs), do I play him or sub in some one else? My other starter is McCoy but also have Crowell, Riddick, and Henry that I could sub in. My league does not allow Free Agent pickups once playoffs start. My gut says stick with your studs and what got you to where you are. What say you?
Fabrizio Danova (West Hills, CA)
I’m not concerned about the Patriots, Cardinals or Cowboys resting players this week. I would love to start Brady. With Johnson, I think he’ll probably get the ball even more than usual – I think they’re trying to get him some numbers. He could become the first player to go over 100 total yards in every game of the season, and a outside chance he could go over 1,000 yards as both a runner and receiver.
Question 4
Championship Game this week. Who do I start Matt Ryan at Carolina or Ben Roethlisberger at home against Ravens?
ROCCO CALAMUSA (Vestavia, AL)
They’re both fine, but I like Roethlisberger. I like the way he plays at home. Baltimore apparently will be without its best cornerback, Jimmy Smith. I have not, however, looked into the weather yet. If the forecast is iffy, that could scare me into going with Ryan.
Question 5
PPR league, 6 hundy on the line. I'm starting OBJ but then choose 2 WR between A Cooper, M Crabtree or D Thomas. I'm actually thinking of dropping one to pick up Cameron Meredith. What would you do? Secondly, go with D Walker or Cam Brate at TE? Serious business needs your serious consideration!
Jaime Fewer ()
I am not even thinking about Meredith. He’s not one of my top 45 wide receivers this week. The other three are all in my top 20. Crabtree isn’t as reliable for catches and yards, so he’s the guy I would leave out. With the tight ends, I’ve got Walker and Brate right next to each other in my top 6. Almost interchangeable, so you can start either one – and no reason to second-guess yourself if you happen to be wrong. I would go with Brate, but just as comfortable with Walker.
Question 6
Championship week and a starter question. I'm definitely starting Malcolm Mitchell and Doug Baldwin. I'm kind of stuck on who to use between Hogan and Smith Sr. I was leaning Hogan, but could really see Steve Smith bringing something extra to what essentially is a playoff game. Pretty close in the rankings although in reading the Baltimore capsule I know you think the odds of him scoring a TD are low where as Hogan has to basically score a TD to provide enough value, I think. What's your opinion Ian?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
If you’re playing for catches and yards, then Smith is the safe choice. But I would go with Hogan. That’s an awfully nice matchup for the Patriots, I think they’ll win that game big, and I think he’s one of the four core pass catchers in that offense (pretty similar to Mitchell, Edelman and Bennett).
Question 7
Somehow I have returned to the Championship game despite losing both A.J. Green and Melvin Gordon down the stretch. Assuming they both suit up this weekend, how much faith do you have in them? Can they be trusted this holiday season in the most important game of the year?
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
Gordon’s not playing. That’s a major downer, with the Chargers playing one of the worst run defenses in the league. Green is at Houston, which is a less-than-ideal matchup, but I don’t know that you have a more qualified player to plug into that spot. I would not be interested in instead going with somebody like Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb or Robby Anderson.
Question 8
Championship week for me in two leagues, so thanks as always. Two lineup decisions I'm on the fence about. Moncrief? would u trust him over ginn/lockett or hogan in non PPR? Not great choices. J.Hill / Yeldon / or Crowell PPR ?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
With Moncrief, you would be playing for a touchdown catch rather than yards. I think he’s averaged only 45 yards in his complete games this year. Lockett has been coming on. With the running backs, I would probably play Yeldon, trying to tap into him catching more passes.