Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Dynasty-league rankings for kickers and defenses. Championship game advice. The risk and reward of injury prone players.

Question 1

Thank you for the recent dynasty TE & WR rankings. I look forward to those for QBs and RBs, and would love to see at least a top ten list for Defenses and Kickers. The end of one season is the best time to get a jump on the next in keeper leagues!

JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)

With kickers, I don’t think it makes much sense to look far beyond 2017. In typical fantasy leagues, there will only be 12-20 kickers on rosters, so if you have a problem at this position, it shouldn’t be long before you’re able to solve it. Looking at my top 10 dynasty kickers, for example, I see a couple who wouldn’t have been on anybody’s rosters in July of last year – Caleb Sturgis and Wil Lutz. So best, I think, to make the priority to be who will help right now. The dynasty kicker list should be similar to the 2017 list. So I’ve got some ancient fossils in the teens – Vinatieri, Bryant, Janikowski. Logically, all of those guys should probably even be a few spots higher. Three elite-type kickers, I think, that merit being selected before the run on kickers at the end of a draft – Tucker, Bailey, Gostkowski. If I were in a dynasty league, I would want one of those three. And if not one of those three, then I would attempt to cobble something together on the cheap.

For defenses, I don’t have a lot of great ideas. I suppose it would make sense to look at the average age of each starting 11 or the ages and contract situations of the key half-dozen guys. But I’m not going to do that. Instead, I just pulled up the most current 2016 season projections that I have on file. Andy Richardson has final say on the defensive numbers, and he put together his last rankings at the end of November. I looked at those, and then made some adjustments based on a George Bushian “gut feel” for what might happen in 2017. The Giants and Ravens seem to be good long-term foundations in place; I moved them up. J.J. Watt will be back, so I moved Houston way up. Jacksonville has collected a ton of young players who seem to be coming along nicely, so they got moved way up. But it’s very much a rough draft kind of a list. (On the numbers you see, that’s not what I’m expecting for 2017 or beyond – it’s what Andy predicted about a month ago.)

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Question 2

With the season winding down (I won my championship, thanks in part to you) I wonder what you look at with the season behind you that makes you wonder how you missed something. Possibly, up-seasons from McCoy, Blount or down-seasons from Demaryius Thomas, Carson Palmer or injuries from Adrian Peterson, C.J. Anderson, Rob Gronkowski?

Yaesha Newman ()

Injuries are part of the game. They need to be factored in. Nobody can claim to be unlikely or surprised that Peterson or Gronkowski got hurt. It would have been more surprising to see those guys play 16 games. For the 2016 season, I tended to play things conservatively with the injury risk guys. That ended up working well with Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson. It was so-so with Gronkowski, Tyler Eifert and Kelvin Benjamin, who all had some good games at times. It didn’t work with Jordy Nelson, who had a great year.

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Question 3

Great year of fantasy advice both with the magazine and on the podcast with Justin. My league is old and we still play our championship in week 17. TD-heavy league with some yardage bonuses at 100 yards. I managed to eek into the title game thanks to your advice and seek some guidance once again. I have LeVeon Bell and Pittsburgh just locked up the division. Will they use him against the Browns ? Or should I roll with Jeremy Hill or Derrick Henry? I also have Devonta Freeman who may have similar usage problems. At WR, I have Cooks (Brees at QB) so I'll probably stick with him but then I have Moncrief, Kelvin Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman. Went Inman last week and it almost cost me dearly. Who is most likely to score a TD out of those 3? Thanks again for a great year and I look forward to the magazine again this summer.

Benjamin MacLeod (Manchester, NH)

Bell isn’t going to play. Hill is a good touchdown scorer but doesn’t tend to play well against Baltimore, which is really good against the run. With Henry, he’s decent and they’ve been using him more in goal-line situations, but they’ve got another good running back there. Hill is crappy, but at least you know if they get the ball on the 1- or 2-yard line they’ll hand it to him. Titans more likely to score a rushing touchdown, but they can use either Henry or Murray there. (And I don’t see them as a super likely touchdown run team either.) If it was my team, I would be looking to add some juice off the waiver wire. Jacquizz Rodgers, Fitzgerald Toussaint and Darren Sproles would be the first guys I’d be bringing in for tryouts. I’d probably start one of those guys with Freeman. With the pass catchers, I haven’t heard anything that leads be to believe any of those guys will be rested or pulled because of the game lacking in meaning. So I’d be going with the best two, and I think they’re Cooks and Benjamin. (Moncrief is hurt; he’s not playing).

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Question 4

Don't quit on my yet, Ian. I'm in a points league and it’s for the full 17 weeks. I have a slim 33-point lead. Need your thoughts. Eli Manning, DeMarco Murray, David Johnson, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Sammy Watkins, Michael Bennett and Sebastian Janikowski are my eight starters. Which, if any, do you see getting limited game play in week 17? I'm already thinking of picking up a kicker to replace Janikowski as Carr is out and they play Denver. Any thoughts you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

Rick Cwik (Lemont, IL)

I would release Janikowski. I’m sure there at least a half dozen kickers on the waiver wire who’ll outperform him this week. The Giants say they’re going to play their regulars, but I would be looking at quarterbacks. I think you can probably find one on the waiver wire who’ll be better than Manning. Even if he plays the whole game, I would think there might be some out there who would be just as good. With Watkins, you have the double whammy. He’s got the foot injury, so there’s some potential (I think) they’ll hold him out. And they’re also starting EJ Manuel, who’s never seemed to have the necessary vision, touch and accuracy to be an NFL quarterback. So I would be looking at other possibilities at wide receiver. The other guys, I think should all be fine. Good luck closing it out.

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Question 5

Hey Ian, been a subscriber for 20 years, and many thanks for the best analysis out there! Despite a quite depressing season overall (5 leagues, only made playoffs in 1) I am in the championship in one of my big-money leagues! Two-week final, and I'm sitting on a 2-point lead at the half. Most of my roster decisions are pretty straightforward (QB Rodgers (no brainer), RBs Freeman, Draughn, and Blue (bench McFadden), WRs J.J. Nelson and Adam Thielen (bench Crabtree), TE Olsen (bench Henry), K Tucker), but it's D/ST that I have a dilemma. We get points for keeping the other team's score down, as well as the usual categories. My 2 choices are within .2 pts of each other in the custom rankings: Bucs vs. Panthers, or Packers at Lions. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the pros & cons of each. Thanks again for all your work this year!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

I expect the Packers will win their game. So if they get ahead by double-digit points in the second half, the Lions could start pressing, leading to some interceptions and sacks. But my gut tells me the safer choice are the Bucs, who’ve played pretty well in their recent home games (specifically the Seattle game). The game doesn’t mean much to either of those teams, but I don’t have any concerns about the Bucs coasting to the finish – I think they’ll want to play hard and close the season on a high note. Good luck in your game.

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