Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Do offenses get a lift from interim coaches? Dynasty prospects for 2017. Is it time to bench Drew Brees? And a peek behind the Fantasy Index stat projection curtain.
Question 1
With the firing of Jeff Fisher, I was wondering about the success rate of the first game for an interim head coach.
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
Last year all three of the teams going to interim coaches scored 34-plus points and won their games. That’s pretty remarkable, considering all three of those coaches were fired because those were bad teams that were losing a lot of games. But the larger body of evidence indicates that when you have one of these lesser teams, it continues to struggle and lose games even after switching coaches. Of the last 26 other teams to change coaches in this century, they’ve averaged 15 points in that first game, with a 6-20 win-loss record.
| TEAMS IN FIRST GAME WITH INTERIM COACH | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Opponent | Score |
| 2000 | Detroit | Atlanta | W 13-10 |
| 2000 | Arizona | New Orleans | L 10-21 |
| 2000 | Cincinnati | Miami | L 16-31 |
| 2000 | Washington | at Dallas | L 13-32 |
| 2001 | Minnesota | at Baltimore | L 3-19 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | at Indianapolis | L 7-38 |
| 2004 | Cleveland | New England | L 15-42 |
| 2004 | Miami | at Seattle | L 17-24 |
| 2005 | Detroit | at Dallas | L 7-20 |
| 2005 | St. Louis | at Indianapolis | L 28-45 |
| 2007 | Atlanta | at Tampa Bay | L 3-37 |
| 2008 | St. Louis | at Washington | W 19-17 |
| 2008 | Oakland | at New Orleans | L 3-34 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | Seattle | L 13-34 |
| 2009 | Buffalo | at Jacksonville | L 15-18 |
| 2010 | Dallas | at NY Giants | W 33-20 |
| 2010 | Minnesota | at Washington | W 17-13 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | Arizona | W 38-7 |
| 2010 | Denver | at Arizona | L 13-43 |
| 2011 | Kansas City | Green Bay | W 19-14 |
| 2011 | Miami | at Buffalo | W 30-23 |
| 2011 | Jacksonville | San Diego | L 14-38 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | at Denver | L 14-34 |
| 2013 | Houston | at Indianapolis | L 3-25 |
| 2014 | Oakland | San Diego | L 28-31 |
| 2015 | Miami | at Tennessee | W 38-10 |
| 2015 | Tennessee | at New Orleans | W 34-28 |
| 2015 | Philadelphia | at NY Giants | W 35-30 |
| 2016 | Los Angeles | at Seattle | L 3-24 |
Question 2
Even though I'm still alive in the playoffs, I'm also looking to score one for the future. PPR long term keeper league. Any of these WRs worth picking up for the next 3-5 years? E.Rodgers, B.Perriman, T.Lockett, C.Hogan, T.Sharpe, A.Theilen, R. Anderson.
JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)
Tyler Lockett, in these last few weeks, has started to play more like everyone thought he would. He was affected by a knee injury earlier in the year – he wasn’t as explosive and they were limiting his playing time. He’s back now. Against Carolina, he had 40-plus yard plays as a runner, receiver and kick returner. He went for 130 yards and a touchdown last night. He’s for a real – would be a top-30 receiver in a dynasty draft, I think. Chris Hogan merits consideration. He’s delivering what the Patriots thought he would. At 28, he’s a smart veteran who’s picked up that offense, giving them a nice vertical threat. The Patriots have lots of other pass catchers, of course. But gives get hurt. If Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman (or both) miss half of last year, what would you think of Hogan? They’ve got Malcolm Mitchell, who’s exceeding expectations, but that’s a great offense, with lots of stats to go around. Hogan should be on a roster. And Breshad Perriman is coming on. He’s made an impressive catch in about four of their last five games. I believe he’ll be starting next year.
Question 3
What to do with Brees and Ingram this week in a semifinal? I know a few weeks back Kirk Cousins did pretty well against this defense, but they're ranked very high against the run. Also, the Saints haven't been good the past few weeks, they're on the road and their offense is barely ok. Are these guys sits, or something you just wouldn't do?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I am comfortable sitting Ingram. The Saints put up huge rushing numbers in two blowouts against really bad teams, running for 457 yards and 4 TDs against the 49ers and Rams. But otherwise they’re averaging only 74 rushing yards, with 7 TDs in 12 games. Here they’re facing an Arizona defense that’s good against the run – 9th. I don’t see the Saints putting up good rushing numbers, they’re also splitting the work between Ingram and Tim Hightower. It’s also not a great situation for Drew Brees. This is a tough defense, and one that plays better at home, where it has allowed only 9 TDs in seven games (that’s not 9 TD passes but 9 total offensive touchdowns). Brees tends to look a lot more mortal on the road, especially in his last two at Carolina and Tampa Bay. So as I push around the numbers, Brees grades out as a pretty average quarterback. But he is still Drew Brees, however, with that capability to put up 330 yards and 3 TDs against anybody. He had the monster game in an adverse situation at Arrowhead earlier in the year. So I would be nervous about starting a lesser quarterback in his place. My initial run-through indicates Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor and Trevor Siemian will all be better than Brees this week. With all of those guys, however, I would be carefully looking at the weather and mulling whether it would be worth risking the possibility that Brees might put together one of his monster games. Unlike all of those guys, Brees won’t have to contend with any weather issues.
Question 4
Can you explain why Todd Gurley is ranked as the number 9 running back, yet in the narrative you have no confidence in him?
michael schwartz (Berkeley, IL)
This question came in last Saturday, so it’s out of date now (I do the Mailbag on Friday mornings) but I’m going to answer it anyway, since the larger question comes up regularly. With all of these players, the process is to spend about 40-50 minutes on each offense. You look at what it’s done, especially recently and giving weight to who it was playing. And you look at what has been allowed by the defense on the other side. In general, I decide on how many touchdowns the offense will score, and how many yards it will generate rushing and receiving. With the touchdowns, then I’ve got to look at those and decide on a pass-run mix. Last week with the Rams, for example, I expected the offense to score just a little over 2 TDs. They tend to score about twice as many touchdowns on passes and Atlanta’s defense is similar, so I had them at 1.41 TD passes and .62 TD runs. And I decided on 232 passing yards and 92 rushing yards. Those numbers were a little larger than what you would normally expect out of the Rams, but they were playing against a defense that’s given up a lot of yards and points. And they were at home. At that point, those big-picture stats get divided up amongst their players. With Gurley, he’s about all they have at running back (and their quarterback doesn’t run) so he was projecting to account for about 80-85 percent of those rushing yards and touchdowns. That clocked out to 74 rushing yards, with a 52 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. You mentioned his PPR rating. It was higher than his other two grades because he’s also been catching a lot of balls; he’s gone over 25 receiving yards six times. For that game, we had him at 26 receiving yards, with a 10 percent chance of catching a touchdown. He’s not a big touchdown catcher, of course, but I think if they played that game 10 times, he’d catch a touchdown in one of them. (Gurley wasn’t much of a factor in the passing game last night, held under 10 yards for the four time in six games, so it looks like it’s time to lower expectations there.) Anyway, that gives you an idea of how we settle on numbers of any given player. Separately from that, we generate a written statement about the player and how he might perform. Those are written without the benefit of knowing exactly where the player will stack up relative to the players on the other 31 teams, so sometimes the writing and the player ranking don’t seem to fit quite right. For those, feel free to write in and ask for clarification (but if sending in a mailbag request, try to get it in by Friday morning).
Question 5
I've been fortunate to make it to round 2 in all 3 of my leagues. Got some tough lineup choices in one league in particular. I need to pick 3 between Bell, Blount, Crowell, and Powell. I think that one really comes down to a choice between Crowell and Powell, both of who appear to be worthy starters this week. This will be Powell's first start with the Forte injury and I've been riding the ups and downs of Crowell all season. For WR's, I also need to pick 3 between Pryor, Snead, Gabriel and Jeffery who I just picked up. Gabriel seems to be the no brainer. I've been using Pryor most weeks but RGIII worries me as does the possibility of starting two Cleveland players in a critical playoff matchup. Snead has been extremely inconsistent. Jeffery seems interesting but you have him WAY down on the Weekly which scares me a bit. Hogan is another option on the free agent list, but he scares me too with the number of targets Brady has, even with Gronk out.
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
With the running backs, I think it’s Powell. Both running backs get to face struggling run defense, but Powell has a better cast around him. The Jets have run the ball pretty well in a lot of their recent games. He’ll also be more productive catching passes. With the wide receivers, Snead and Gabriel would start. I don’t think Pryor or Jeffery is good enough to put in starting lineup in Week 15. I’d rather see you go to the waiver wire, picking up Hogan or perhaps someone else.
Question 6
Looking ahead at week 16, who do you like better on defense: St. Louis (vs. SF) or San Diego (@ CLE)?
Timothy Lynch (New York, NY)
They both look really good. Right now I would ride with San Diego. That’s odd to say, with the Chargers playing without both of their starting cornerbacks. But they’ve done a really nice job getting takeaways this year (tied for first after Week 14). And Cleveland has allowed more sacks than anybody. With San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick takes a lot of sacks but doesn’t turn it over much.
Question 7
Need your help man. In a tough spot this week. Brady vs. Luck or Flacco off waivers and then two of these guys: Ajayi, Blount and Tevin Coleman.
CHRISTOPHER TONELLA (Saint Louis, MO)
Denver’s defense is really tough. It’s allowed more than one touchdown pass only twice in its last 16 games. But Brady is good enough that I think gets the nod over Luck and Flacco. I carefully worked through all of those games and matchups, and Brady’s projection comes in well ahead of those guys. Working with a depleted receiving corps, he was able to throw 3 TDs in that stadium late last year. With the running backs, I don’t see a big difference between the three. If it’s a PPR league, Blount is the one who sit. If it’s TD-only, Ajayi is on the bench. If it’s standard, Blount just gets edged out.
Question 8
.5 PPR Flex Jeffery or Forsett
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
I’ve got those guys really close on my board. Slight edge to Jeffery, but I haven’t factored in the weather yet. We’re inside 48 hours now, so I will go back and check the forecasts for all 15 games. If they’re still thinking it’s going to be about 1-2 degrees in Chicago on Sunday, I will be lowering their passing projection.
Question 9
I can start 3 of these receivers in a standard scoring format which 3 are my best plays? Watkins, DeSean Jackson, Tyrell Williams, Tate, Edelman, Jeffery, and Gabriel.
Jason Howes (Stewartville, MN)
Looks like you’ll have to leave some good players on the bench. I would be using Gabriel, Williams and Jackson.
Question 10
I was going to go with Rishard Matthews @ flex, but I could go with Rashad Jennings. 0.4 points separates them in the custom rankings, so I'd love to hear your expert opinion on my dilemma.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I’m not a big fan of either guy. With Matthews, he doesn’t catch a lot of balls, making him touchdown dependent. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Tennessee’s passing game this week. I think they’ll try to mash things out. If the weather is suspect, that will make things even harder for him. With Jennings, he potentially could get better as the conditions get worse. But they keep using him a little less each week. I saw Paul Perkins pop a couple of runs on Sunday night where I thought we might be seeing a changing of the guard at that position.