I’m not ready yet to say the Patriots will win. Atlanta has the ability to trade punches with anybody (I’ll take a closer look at the Falcons tomorrow). But New England’s offense sure looks good. It should pile up plenty of yards and points in what should be one of the higher scoring Super Bowls. The over-under is set at 59 points, a total that’s been reached only three times in the last 20 years.

The Falcons led the league in scoring in the regular season, but the Patriots have been almost as productive. Since Tom Brady returned, their offense has scored 49 touchdowns in 14 games – just 3 fewer than Atlanta. And New England’s defense has allowed over 9 fewer points per game. The Falcons have faced more good offenses (including multiple games against Green Bay and New Orleans), but it’s not as if the Patriots have been competing in the Big East Conference. Setting aside the Falcons and Patriots themselves, Atlanta has played seven games against the top-10 other offenses; New England has played six (two each against Pittsburgh and Buffalo).

Atlanta doesn’t have a great defense. It came on some late in the year (most notably giving up only 19-21 points in wins against Arizona, Seattle and Green Bay). But all of those games were at home. In the regular season, only seven defenses allowed more yards than the Falcons, and only five allowed more points.

The Atlanta defense is orchestrated by Dan Quinn, and as Bill Belichick points out, they’re using a lot of the same concepts that Quinn employed two years ago, when he was the coordinator in Seattle. The Patriots were able to figure out that defense (which was definitely better) for much of Super Bowl XLIX, winning 28-24. This might be the same kind of game, only even higher scoring.

QUARTERBACK:

Tom Brady is 39, but not really slowing down at all. He’s averaged 302 passing yards in his 14 starts, with 33 TDs – multiple touchdowns in 11 of those 14 starts. In his last Super Bowl he faced a better defense put together by this same man and was the MVP, with 328 yards and 4 TDs.

In the regular season, the Falcons allowed more passing yards than all but four teams, along with 31 TD passes – not very good. On this front, the only solace is that the Falcons are better now than they were in September/October, even with their top cornerback (Desmond Trufant) out. They’ve learned how to play together. In their first nine games they allowed an average of 304 passing yards, with 23 TD passes. In their last nine games, they’ve allowed an average of 252 yards, with 13 TDs. Three big-time passers in there (Rodgers, Brees, Palmer), along with Newton and Wilson.

The Patriots are going without Rob Gronkowski, of course, but that hasn’t slowed them down much. Brady threw 3 TDs in each of his last two regular-season games. He passed for 287 yards and 2 TDs against Houston, who frustrated him for a while, but he was back up to 384 yards and 3 TDs against the Steelers.

Good chance he’ll throw for about 300 yards and 3 TDs. Since he’s returned from his suspension, the Patriots have scored just over twice as many touchdowns passing as rushing. Atlanta’s defense has been similar, with 36 TDs allowed on passes versus 15 on runs. So if we’re to assume New England’s offense scores 4 TDs (which might be too conservative), that would give Brady a really good chance of throwing 3 TDs.

RUNNING BACK:

It looks like a slightly below-average situation for the running game. The Falcons have been pretty solid against the run. Not great, but solid. They got mauled for 208 yards and 2 TDs at Philadelphia, but that was a long time ago. They’ve allowed an average of 94 rushing yards in their last 14 other games. They gave up 11 rushing touchdowns in those 14 games, which is below-average, but had they allowed 94 yards for the full regular season, they would have ranked 8th in run defense. It’s worth mentioning they recently lost defensive end Adrian Clayborn, who was one of their reliable big bodies up front.

So we see this as a typical kind of situation for LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. The Patriots have struggled to run it in their last two games, but the Texans and Steelers are better against the run than this group. New England ranked 7th in rushing in the regular season. With Brady starting, they’ve averaged 106 rushing yards, with 16 TDs in those 14 games. So for an initial estimate, you’re looking at something along the lines of 100-105 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Blount and Lewis have been a one-two punch recently. In the last five games, Blount has 11 more carries, while Lewis has run for 37 more yards. (Lewis has averaged 49 rushing yards in those games, versus 42 for Blount). Unlike Blount, Lewis has some ability in the passing game; he’s caught 2 passes in four of his last five games. Blount has caught only 2 passes in his last 11 games.

So in this kind of a game, probably the leader of the two making a run at perhaps 60 rushing yards, with the other guy going for about 40. Factoring in receiving yards, Lewis should finish with more total yards. They prefer Blount at the goal line; including the postseason, he’s scored 19 of their 21 rushing touchdowns. If the Patriots score a rushing touchdown in this game (and they probably will) that should be enough to lift Blount over Lewis in most scoring formats.

Fumbles could be a factor. Lewis was a lot better than Blount in the Houston game. He’s faster and more elusive, and he has the ability to create mismatches in the passing game. Recall that the last time the Patriots beat a Dan Quinn defense, it was with Shane Vereen catching a game-high 11 passes. Lewis scored 3 TDs in that Texans game (including a kickoff return). But he also fumbled twice in that game, and Belichick hates fumblers. He was grumbling about those fumbles that week, and then Lewis got only 6 carries against the Steelers. Blount, on the other hand, has fumbled only 3 times in his last 38 games.

The undercard back here is James White, and considering how Vereen was utilized against the Seahawks two years ago, White has some sneaky value. He doesn’t carry the ball much, but they bring him in for a few plays, and few linebackers can cover him. Even during this recent five-game stretch (where they’ve been rotating Blount and Lewis), White has still caught 14 passes and 2 TDs. He’s caught 6 of Brady’s 33 TD passes, while 6 of the 36 TD passes allowed by the Falcons have gone to running backs. That’s a combined 17 percent between the two teams – about one out of every 5 or 6 TD passes. So if you figure Brady’s throwing 3 TDs, that gives White something along the lines of a 30-40 percent chance of catching a touchdown, making him an excellent value if you’re in some kind of game where you need to hit on a lesser player to separate from a bunch of other entries.

WIDE RECEIVER:

As discussed in the Brady section, the matchup looks healthy enough for the passing game, with the expectation of something around 300 yards and 3 TDs. Some of that will be accounted for by backs and tight ends, but there could be enough left for both Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan to be productive.

Edelman has long filled a safety blanket role in this offense. They’ll get the ball in his hands, and he’s on top of his game right now. He’s averaged 7.3 catches and 100 yards in his last 10 games. In a PPR format, there’s definitely the possibility he’ll outperform Julio Jones. But Edelman isn’t a great scorer. Brady has thrown 33 touchdowns this year, and Edelman has caught only 4 of them. He’s also caught a 2-point conversion, but truth is they’re not using him a ton down in the red zone.

With Hogan, you get a little more scoring potential. He’s caught 5 TDs in his last 10 games, including 2 against the Steelers. But he isn’t as heavily involved. He’s caught only 36 passes in his last 10 games, fewer than half as many as Edelman. Those are going for more downfield damage (18.2 yards per catch), but it’s added up to only 66 yards per game.

I’m putting a favorable grade on Hogan because I like that he’s come on. A ways back it seemed like Malcom Mitchell was developing into a key cog in this offense, but he got hurt and might have hit the rookie wall. Mitchell has caught only 5 passes for 48 yards in his last three games, and it doesn’t seem like they’re counting on him much now. Hogan, meanwhile, has come up pretty big in his last two, with 4 catches for 95 yards against Houston, then 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs against the Steelers. Relative to where everyone will be picked, he might be the best of the pass catchers this week – a cheaper option who might outperform both Jones and Edelman.

Mitchell should be their No. 3 receiver. After missing a couple of games, he was healthy for the AFC Championship, so they plugged him into that role (leaving Michael Floyd inactive). Mitchell had that nice little burst a ways back, when he caught 3 TDs in three games and went over 80 yards in two of them. But that was over two months ago. He caught 1 pass for 5 yards against Pittsburgh on 4 targets. Unlikely that he suddenly comes up big now.

TIGHT END:

The Falcons don’t really use their tight ends, so Martellus Bennett easily grades out as the best player at this position. If I had the choice of Bennett and either of the two quarterbacks, I would take that rather than first choice of the quarterbacks plus Atlanta’s tight end. And I’d do the same with the running backs. But Bennett has nonetheless been remarkably disappointing, considering his talent. He’s had good seasons in the past with the Giants and Bears, and he’s gone over 100 yards in three games this year, along with a 3-TD game at Cleveland.

But the Patriots simply haven’t used him enough. Since Gronkowski got hurt – creating the potential for truly elite numbers – Bennett has caught only 23 passes for 233 yards and 3 TDs in nine games. That’s only 26 yards per game, and he’s caught only 3 of the team’s 21 TD passes since the Gronk injury.

Injuries could be a contributing factor. With shoulder and ankle injuries, Bennett has been questionable most weeks on the injury report. But he’s healthy enough that he’s been playing, and other than a knee tweak that sidelined him for a few plays against Houston, he’s seemed to be healthy enough. It looks like they’ve just got other ideas with the offense, and he’s not that big a part of what they’re trying to do.

The matchup looks good enough. Of the 36 TD passes allowed by the Falcons, 10 have been caught by tight ends. But tough to logically pencil in Bennett for anything more than about 3 catches and 40 yards, with perhaps a 20 percent chance of catching any given touchdown (that’s a blending of him having caught 14 percent of Brady’s last 21 TDs, and the Falcons allowing 27 percent of their TD passes to this position).

KICKER:

Stephen Gostkowski has had an off year. He’s missed 4 extra points; he didn’t miss any in the regular season last year. And he’s missed 5 field goals – 2 more than last year. But with kickers, it’s less about the player than the offense around him, and the Patriots have been picking up recently.

Gostkowski scored only 69 points in his first 10 games, which is slightly below the league average. But he’s scored 80 points in his last eight, with fewer than 9 points in only one of those weeks. Here he’s in an appealing enough matchup. He’ll face a defense that allowed 18 more kicking points than the Patriots in the regular season. So Gostkowski grades out as the better of the two kicking options.

DEFENSE:

Neither looks great, but New England looks slightly more likely to maybe do something on defense or special teams. Both teams have similar, average pass rushes (they both finished with 34 sacks in the regular season). But the Falcons allowed 13 more in the regular season, almost one more per week, so give the Patriots the edge there.

And give New England the slight edge in interceptions. They’ve picked off 17 passes in 18 games, 2 more than the Falcons, and Tom Brady has been a little more careful with the ball. Matt Ryan has thrown only 7 interceptions in 17 games, but that’s almost twice as many as the Patriots. It’s probably only about 50-50 that either defense comes up with a pick, but if one does, it probably will be the Patriots.

For fumbles, maybe you give Atlanta a slight edge. With problems on special teams, New England fumbled 19 more times than the Falcons in the regular season, losing 8 (versus only 4 for Atlanta). But both defenses have recovered 11 fumbles in 18 games, and we’re talking about fumbles, which is a lesser category involving a lot of luck. The Patriots have a stronger pass rush grade, so there’s more potential there for the quarterback to maybe have the ball knocked out.

Neither team is likely to score on a defensive play. Atlanta scored 5 such TDs in the regular season, but all were against teams that turn it over a lot more than New England – Rams (twice), Chargers, Panthers and Saints. New England didn’t score any of those touchdowns in the regular season but also didn’t allow any. Matt Ryan has had 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns in 18 games; he’s a little more likely than Tom Brady to maybe slip up. But these guys are very solid. Including the postseason, Ryan has thrown 3 pick-six balls in his last 34 games; Brady has thrown 2 in his last 34.

Neither team is likely to score on a kick return, but in the unlikely event it occurs, it’s more likely to be the Patriots. Dion Lewis, after all, scored on a kickoff return in the opening playoff game. But New England otherwise hasn’t scored on a kickoff or punt return in the last two years, while the Falcons haven’t allowed any kick return touchdowns in 34 games under Dan Quinn.

Attaching numbers to these opinions I get the projections shown below. This is standard scoring, with 6 points for touchdowns, 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards and 1 for every 20 passing yards. On the chart, I’ve combined all touchdowns (pass, run, rec and return) in one column.