The Patriots have won three more games, and their defense has allowed a lot fewer yards and points. They’re a 3-point favorite. But none of that necessarily means Atlanta can’t do its thing and win. It will be a surprise if they don’t score in at least the mid-20s.

History tells us that the Super Bowl is a different kind of game. Strange things happen, and nobody really knows what’s going to happen. In each of the last five years, the underdog has won the game. In only four of the last 20 has the favorite both won and covered. And the team with the better defense has won only half the time.

Atlanta averaged a league-high 34 points per game, and this is a battle-tested offense. It’s seemingly benefitted recently from some dome-field advantage, but the Falcons have shown they can do it away from home. They had a poor outing at Philadelphia, but they scored 24 and 23 points on the road against Denver and Seattle. They scored 33-plus points in each of their other five road games (Oakland, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Carolina). Overall, the offense has scored 68 touchdowns in 18 games – almost 4 per week.

So while the Patriots led the league in scoring defense, I expect these teams will come to the center of the ring and start trading punches. Both teams might score in the 30s, and both offenses are in the mix to score 4-plus touchdowns. The over-under is sitting at 59 points, the highest ever, and I think that looks appropriate (though I’ll concede that it’s been over 50 only four times in this century, and the total has been short every time).

To me, this game looks like a shootout that could go other way. Probably fair to call New England the favorite, but Atlanta looks like the smarter choice if you get to go into the fight with the extra 3 points in your back pocket.

QUARTERBACK:

The quarterbacks look like interchangeable parts this week. Very little difference between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. They’re both really good, but hard to say with any conviction which one will be better.

For running production, call it a wash. They’re pocket passers, who are looking to get the ball in the hands of other people. Brady has a stronger history of scoring on sneaks, but he’s actually only scored a touchdown on his own in one of the past four regular seasons. Ryan hasn’t scored in his last 80 regular season games but went off script to run one in on his own in the last game. Ryan averaged 4 more rushing yards in the regular season.

They both tend to pile up big passing numbers. Ryan has averaged 315 passing yards, with 45 TDs – 2.5 per game. Brady is within 5 percent of those totals (302 per game, with 33 TDs in four fewer games). If you buy into the belief that New England’s defense is better, it would make sense to slot Brady a little higher. The Patriots allowed 29 fewer passing yards per game in the regular season, with 10 fewer touchdown passes. But Atlanta’s defense got better late in the year and faced far more quality quarterbacks (most notably Brees twice, Carr and Rivers). During the regular season, Atlanta’s opponents (in 256 combined games) passed for over 6,100 more yards, with 92 more TD passes.

Through scheduling quirks, the Patriots have played only five opponents ranking in the top 20 in passing, and none in the top half dozen. Carson Palmer went for 271 yards and 2 TDs. Russell Wilson went for 348 and 3 TDs. And Ben Roethlisberger went for 314 and a touchdown last week, with another 2 TDs dropped. Those are the three top-10 quarterbacks they’ve seen. I’m leaving out Landry Jones (281 and a touchdown) because he was filling in. Joe Flacco went for 324 yards and 2 TDs (Ravens were 11th in passing), and Andy Dalton went for 254 and a touchdown (Bengals ranked 13th).

That’s it. And none of those guys have been anywhere near as good as Ryan. So I believe he’ll be just fine. Probably 300-plus yards, and 3 TDs more likely than just 2. I wouldn’t rush to select Brady before him. The losing quarterback in this game could very easily finish with more passing yards, given the way games tend to flow.

Note that both of these offenses tend to score in the same way. With Brady at quarterback, the Patriots have scored just over twice as many touchdowns passing as rushing (33-16 in 14 games). The Falcons have scored 45 passing and 23 rushing touchdowns in 18 games.

RUNNING BACK:

The Patriots are really strong against the run. Only two teams allowed fewer rushing yards in the regular season. And with the way New England plays defense, they tend to force opponents to pass in the red zone. They allowed only 6 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, 2 fewer than any other team. And they allowed only 6 and 8 rushing touchdowns the previous two seasons – that’s just the way they’re wired.

But the Falcons have a heck of a one-two punch at running back. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 2,482 yards and 24 TDs in the regular season. That’s 155 yards and 1.5 TDs per game.

As much as the Patriots would like to perhaps stack the line of scrimmage or key on these guys, that’s not really possible. The Falcons have the big-time passing offense, which must be respected, and with them using two backs, they’ve also got fresh legs in there. New England has some big bodies that can clog the middle, but the Falcons have the flexibility, speed and talent to attack in different areas.

The Falcons have played other good run defenses. They’ve played eight games, in fact, against teams that ranked in the top 10 against the run, and put up truly poor numbers in only one of those games (52 yards at Seattle). They scored rushing touchdowns in all of the other games, and averaged 104 rushing yards overall.

RUSHING VS. TOP-10 DEFENSES
Opponent	Yards	TD
Carolina	90	1
at Seattle	52	0
San Diego	130	1
Green Bay	90	1
Arizona	116	3
at Carolina	152	1
Seattle	99	1
Green Bay	101	2
Average	104	1.25

So for a guestimate, I’ll go with about 105 yards and a touchdown. That’s lower than the usual production (the Falcons averaged 121 rushing yards in the regular season, with 20 TD runs in those 16 games).

That’s not an off-the-chart rushing projection, but keep in mind these backs are also heavily involved in the passing game. They’ve combined for 99 catches, 1,062 receiving yards and 7 TD receptions. That’s an additional 59 yards per game, with a touchdown catch in almost half of their games. If the Patriots have success slowing down the running game or decide to try to blanket Julio Jones, the Falcons likely will respond by using these guys even more on pass plays.

As for splitting up the stats between these guys, we’ll give a slight edge to Freeman. He’s more experienced, and he’s better and more knowledgeable in the passing game (both blocking and receiving). Coleman is faster and more explosive (he really ran hard against Seattle), but Freeman is the more seasoned veteran.

Freeman has been a little better recently. Setting aside September and October, which was a long time ago, and forget about when Coleman was out with a hamstring injury. Look at how they’re playing right now. Freeman has averaged 62 rushing and 45 receiving yards in his last seven games, with 8 TDs. Coleman has averaged 52 rushing and 21 receiving yards in those same seven games, with 6 TDs. So in the seven most recent games, Freeman has averaged 35 more total yards, with 2 more touchdowns. That’s mostly been in the passing game, where he’s averaged almost 2 more catches per game.

I can’t guarantee Freeman will be better. Coleman has been more productive in two of those last seven games. But Freeman statistically has outperformed him by a 59-41 percent margin (using standard scoring), and I’ll slot them as such.

WIDE RECEIVER:

As discussed in the quarterback section, I think the situation looks fine for the passing game. The Patriots finished a little above average in pass defense in the regular season, and they did so despite playing the league’s most passer friendly schedule. Matt Ryan should go for 300-plus yards and 2-3 TDs, and that puts all of their pass catchers in line for their usual kind of production.

No reason to be scared away from starting Julio Jones. The Patriots would like to take him away, and no doubt they’ll try, but that’s really hard to do. And while New England has the sterling defensive reputation and some clever guys in the secondary, today’s NFL is very much tilted in favor of offenses.

In New England’s last 16 games against 1,000-yard receivers, for example, those receivers combined to catch 93 passes for 1,150 yards and 10 TDs. That’s a 16-game season’s worth of games by a group that’s mostly not as good as Jones.

1,000-YARD RECEIVERS VS. NEW ENGLAND
Year	Player	No	Yards	TD	Points
2015	at Brandon Marshall	8	115	2	23.5
2015	at Eric Decker	3	47	1	10.7
2015	at Jarvis Landry	6	72	0	7.2
2015	at DeMaryius Thomas	2	12	0	1.2
2015	at Emmanuel Sanders	5	62	0	6.2
2016	Larry Fitzgerald	8	81	2	20.1
2016	Jarvis Landry	10	137	0	13.7
2016	at Terrelle Pryor	5	48	0	4.8
2016	at Antonio Brown	7	106	0	10.6
2016	Doug Baldwin	6	59	3	23.9
2016	Kenny Britt	2	67	1	12.7
2016	Mike Wallace	5	52	0	5.2
2016	at Demaryius Thomas	7	91	0	9.1
2016	at Emmanuel Sanders	3	48	0	4.8
2016	at Jarvis Landry	9	76	1	13.6
2016	Antonio Brown	7	77	0	7.7

Jones has been missing some practice time with a toe injury, but he’ll play. He doesn’t seem to be physically limited, and he’s been on top of his game recently, with 14 catches for 235 yards and 3 TDs against the Seahawks and Packers. Jones has averaged 103 yards in his 16 games, and they might be using him more in the red zone now that the stakes are higher. He’s caught half of their 6 TD passes in the postseason. In the regular season, he caught only 6 of their 33 touchdown passes in the 14 games he played.

I am putting a modest grade on Taylor Gabriel. He’s tailed off recently, with just 9 catches for 110 yards in his last three games, with no touchdowns. He averaged 65 yards in his previous seven games, with 7 TDs. He’s too dependent on hitting on a long touchdown, and the Patriots don’t tend to give up those kind of plays. They allowed only 5 passes of 40-plus yards in the regular season, 2nd-fewest in the league. I will concede that Will Fuller and Sammie Coates have dropped long balls against them in their last two games, but unlikely that Gabriel comes up big.

I’m not a big fan of Mohamed Sanu; he’s too slow and limited. But I will grant that he’s been coming on recently. Three weeks in a row he’s caught a touchdown, and three weeks in a row he’s caught 4-5 passes. Sanu caught 4-plus passes in only nine of his previous 13 games, with just 2 TDs. He’s working mostly underneath, averaging about 11 yards per catch, but makes sense to put him down for 3-4 catches, and he’s been on the rise as a scorer. With his limited downfield ability, he doesn’t grade out as highly as New England’s top 2 wide receivers.

Justin Hardy and Aldrick Robinson should get on the field for a few plays, but unlikely that either makes much of an impact. Hardy has caught only 2 TDs since September, and both came when one of the regulars was sitting out. When Jones-Sanu-Gabriel have been in the lineup, Hardy has caught only 7 passes in his last eight games, with no touchdowns. Robinson is really fast, but they haven’t tried to tap into that speed much. He’s caught only 4 passes in those eight games, with one touchdown (late in the Kansas City game, after Jones left with an injury).

TIGHT END:

The Falcons don’t use their tight ends much. They drafted Austin Hooper in the third round, and maybe he someday develops into a top-10 pass-catching tight end. But it hasn’t happened yet. He’s caught only 8 passes and one touchdown in his last seven games. He’s picked up just a little in the postseason, with receptions of 8, 10 and 15 yards, but if I were setting the over-under on a prop bet, I would go with about 11 yards.

Their other Stanford tight end, Levine Toilolo, plays more because he’s a better blocker. But Toilolo has notoriously iffy hands, as underscored by his red-zone drop against the Packers. Best thing he has going for him is that because he’s essentially an extra offensive tackle, he’s sometimes left completely uncovered on those rare occasions when he starts lumbering downfield. He caught a 46-yard touchdown against a busted coverage in Seattle, and a 32-yard score at Tampa Bay. But ultimately, he’s caught only 10 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown in his last 10 games.

KICKER:

I’m slotting Matt Bryant just behind Stephen Gostkowski. That’s out of respect for the Patriots being favored and playing well recently. New England allowed 18 fewer kicking points in the regular season.

But not much difference between these kickers. Bryant can certainly get it done. He led the league in kicking points in the regular season, averaging just under 10 per game.

DEFENSE:

I don’t have high expectations for either of the defenses. Neither offense turns it over much.

I am putting Atlanta a little lower because Tom Brady has been unusually good at avoiding sacks and interceptions. He’s thrown only 4 interceptions (though 2 have come in the postseason), and he’s taken only 19 sacks – almost one fewer per game than Matt Ryan. Both the Falcons and Patriots had 34 sacks in the regular season, but Atlanta is essentially a one-man gang. Vic Beasley leads them with 15.5 sacks, but the only other player with more than 3 is Adrian Clayborn (4.5), and he’s injured.

The Falcons also don’t have their No. 1 cornerback, Desmond Trufant, though the secondary actually got a lot better after he got hurt – they have better chemistry now.

Atlanta’ defense scored 5 TDs in the regular season, but all came against teams that turn it over a lot more than New England. Brady doesn’t throw interceptions and LeGarrette Blount hasn’t fumbled in 16 straight games, so how are the Falcons supposed to score one of those touchdowns? The Patriots haven’t allowed a touchdown on a return all year.

The Falcons have Eric Weems handling punt and kickoff returns, but he’s mostly a hands guy. He hasn’t scored on a return in any of the last six seasons, with 86 punt returns and 76 kickoff returns in that span.

SUPER BOWL CHEAT SHEET

Combining with my New England conclusions from yesterday, I get a board that looks like the following. This is standard scoring, with 6 for touchdowns (run-rec-ret), 4 for TD passes, 1 for every 10 run/rec yards and 1 for every 20 passing yards. The board includes no attempt to “weight” players. That is, I see Ryan and Brady as pretty much interchangeable, but I have them in the top 2 slots. If you were going with some kind of one-on-one mini draft, with guys limited to one player at each position, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and even Martellus Bennett would make more sense than the quarterbacks, since they offer more statistical pop than the No. 2 option at their position.

SUPER BOWL PLAYER PROJECTIONS
Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	Tot	TD	Pts
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	302	0	7	309	2.85	27.4
QB	NE	Tom Brady	297	0	4	301	2.81	26.7
WR	ATL	Julio Jones	0	95	0	95	.74	14.0
RB	ATL	Devonta Freeman	0	37	51	88	.86	13.9
WR	NE	Julian Edelman	0	85	3	88	.49	11.8
WR	NE	Chris Hogan	0	74	0	74	.69	11.6
RB	NE	LeGarrette Blount	0	3	50	53	.88	10.6
RB	ATL	Tevin Coleman	0	23	44	67	.62	10.4
PK	NE	Stephen Gostkowski	0	0	0	0	.00	8.7
RB	NE	Dion Lewis	0	19	42	61	.40	8.5
PK	ATL	Matt Bryant	0	0	0	0	.00	8.3
WR	ATL	Mohamed Sanu	0	46	0	46	.51	7.7
WR	ATL	Taylor Gabriel	0	41	1	42	.47	7.0
TE	NE	Martellus Bennett	0	36	0	36	.53	6.8
RB	NE	James White	0	27	4	31	.38	5.4
ST	NE	Patriots D-ST	0	0	0	0	.11	5.0
WR	NE	Malcolm Mitchell	0	30	0	30	.25	4.5
ST	ATL	Falcons D-ST	0	0	0	0	.08	3.8
TE	ATL	Levine Toilolo	0	19	0	19	.20	3.1
TE	ATL	Austin Hooper	0	13	0	13	.14	2.1
WR	ATL	Justin Hardy	0	13	0	13	.09	1.9
WR	NE	Danny Amendola	0	12	0	12	.09	1.7
RB	ATL	Patrick DiMarco	0	7	0	8	.12	1.5
RB	NE	James Develin	0	6	0	6	.09	1.2
WR	ATL	Aldrick Robinson	0	7	0	7	.07	1.1
TE	NE	Matt Lengel	0	3	0	3	.06	.6
TE	ATL	Joshua Perkins	0	3	0	3	.03	.5
WR	NE	Michael Floyd	0	3	0	3	.03	.5
QB	ATL	Matt Schaub	3	0	0	3	.03	.3
QB	NE	Jimmy Garoppolo	3	0	0	3	.03	.3
WR	ATL	Nick Williams	0	1	0	1	.01	.2
RB	NE	Brandon Bolden	0	1	0	1	.01	.1
WR	ATL	Eric Weems	0	0	0	0	.01	.1
RB	NE	D.J. Foster	0	0	0	0	.00	.1
RB	ATL	Terron Ward	0	0	0	0	.00	.0
TE	ATL	D.J. Tialavea	0	0	0	0	.00	.0
WR	NE	Matthew Slater	0	0	0	0	.00	.0

—Ian Allan