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Fantasy Football Index publisher Ian Allan answers your questions about fantasy football. Click here to submit a question.

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Mailbag for November 7, 2019

Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Ronald Jones now an elite running back? How can somebody score 4 TDs one week and none the next? Shutdown corners, high-scoring rookies, declining Todd Gurley and more.

Question 1

I was looking at the Redrafter and it has Ronald Jones ranked 12th for running backs and Robert Woods 16th for wide receivers. I currently have Kamara, Lindsay, Mixon, and Henderson at running back and Thomas, Adams and Emmanuel Sanders at wide receiver. This is a 16-team league and we’re allowed to keep 4. Should I move Mixon in a deal to get Jones and Woods or stand pat with what I have? Don’t think Mixon will do much this year and want to make a run for the championship. Would like to here your thoughts.

BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)

If we’re drafting guys today, I definitely want Jones before three of your running backs (Lindsay, Mixon, Henderson). Tampa Bay has changed its backfield. The time-share with Peyton Barber is over. It’s Jones’ gig now, and he’s going to be on the field 80-plus percent of the time in all of their remaining games. So far the Jones-Barber tag-team has averaged 82 rushing and 20 receiving yards, with 6 TDs. That’s production that’s been split. Now, the vast majority of those stats are going to flow through Jones. Definitely a guy who could help you lift the trophy this year. The decision-making gets harder if you try to analyze long term, factoring in what might happen in 2020 and beyond. Darrell Henderson should develop into the top back for the Rams, and Mixon could still have some top-10 seasons in him. But for 2019, I want Jones. With Robert Woods, the bar is lowered considerably. He’s ranked 16th, but if he was ranked 26th, I don’t think anybody would ask about it. If the Rams lay an egg on Sunday, he may be 36th or even 46th in a week or two. He’s not having a great year. He’s caught one touchdown, and he’s on pace for just under 1,000 yards. The Rams might be missing Brandin Cooks for a bunch of games, which could hurt him. Thus far they’ve been heavily using Cooper Kupp in the red zone. With the Woods grade, it’s influenced by the nice work he’s done the last two years, rather than so much what he’s been doing recently.

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Question 2

After their monster performances with 4 touchdowns, Marvin Jones and Tevin Coleman put up dud games. How have other 4-TD players done in their next game?

Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)

Aaron Jones also scored 4 touchdowns in a game this year, and he also didn’t score at all the next week. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Especially with pass catchers. Since 2000, there have been seven games with a wide receiver catching 4 touchdowns. Those guys in their next games combined (in seven games) to cach only 31 passes for 423 yards and 3 TDs.

WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 4 TD (next game)
PlayerYearOppRunRecTD
Joe Horn, N.O.2003at Jac.2390
Marcus Robinson, Bal.2003S.F.2711
Terrell Owens, Dall.2007NYJ6651
Randy Moss, N.E.2007Phi.5430
Eric Decker, Den.2013Ten.81171
Marvin Jones, Cin.2013at Mia.4660
Marvin Jones, Det.2019NYG4220

The hit rate is better with running backs, but not as good as you would expect. Since 2000, there have been 42 games with running backs scoring 4 TDs. Only 11 of those 42 scored multiple touchdowns again the next week. Slightly over half (24 of 42) at least scored in their next game, but 18 didn’t get in the end zone.

RUNNING BACKS WITH 4 TDs (next game)
PlayerYearOppRunRecTD
Fred Taylor, Jac.2000Ten.104221
Marshall Faulk, St.L.2000at T.B.79534
Marshall Faulk, St.L.2000at N.O.220413
Marshall Faulk, St.L.2000Was.33881
Mike Anderson, Den.2000Sea.13102
Marshall Faulk, St.L.2001Atl.168581
Clinton Portis, Den.2002at Oak.5251
Marshall Faulk, St.L.2002at Ariz.178581
Priest Holmes, K.C.2002Jac.84320
Shaun Alexander, Sea.2002S.F.96251
Clinton Portis, Den.2003Clev.13962
Derrick Blaylock, K.C.2004Ind.18190
Priest Holmes, K.C.2004Ind.143823
T.J. Duckett, Atl.2004at Sea.52110
Willis McGahee, Buff.2004at Mia.9140
LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2005Buff.67221
Shaun Alexander, Sea.2005at Was.9841
Shaun Alexander, Sea.2005Dall.6100
Joseph Addai, Ind.2006at Ten.56110
LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2006at Den.105744
LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2006Oak.10952
LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2006at K.C.66721
Larry Johnson, K.C.2006at St.L.17201
Reggie Bush, N.O.2006at Dall.371251
Steven Jackson, St.L.2006last game------
Jamal Lewis, Cle.2007at Pitt.3580
LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.2007Hou.9010
Brian Westbrook, Phil.2008at NYG131722
DeAngelo Williams, Car.2008T.B.18662
DeAngelo Williams, Car.2008at N.O.17800
Michael Turner, Atl.2008at S.D.12000
Ronnie Brown, Mia.2008S.D.12581
Darren McFadden, Oak.2010Sea.111240
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.2011at Atl.11210
Doug Martin, T.B.2012S.D.68510
Jamaal Charles, K.C.2013Ind.106381
Jonas Gray, N.E.2014Det.000
Marshawn Lynch, Sea.2014at K.C.12410
Danny Woodhead, S.D.2015at Oak.55530
Todd Gurley, LAR2017at Ten.1181582
Derrick Henry, Ten.2018at NYG17002
Aaron Jones, G.B.2019Det.47130
Tevin Coleman, S.F.2019at Ariz.23130

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Question 3

What 2 RBs to start and why? Montgomery vs DET. Gurley vs PIT. Singletary vs CLE. I’m leaning toward Montgomery & Singletary but Gurley was my #1 pick and its killing me to go against him. But I'm not liking the fact that he may share the ball with Brown & Henderson. This is probably do or die week for me to make the playoffs.

DAVID MARCUS (Glenmoore, PA)

I think you’ve got it scoped out correctly. You made a mistake two months ago by using your first-round pick on Gurley. I don’t think you compound that by making more bad decisions now. It’s over. Gurley isn’t an elite running back anymore. It’s time to let the young guys take over.

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Question 4

Scrambling for a RB waiver pick this week. Kareem Hunt or Damien Williams seem to be my best choices.

Matthew Dolan (Walnut Creek, CA)

I’m not a big Hunt fan. I expect he’ll get a few change-of-pace touches, but I consider him to be more of a handcuff. If you take Hunt, I don’t think he’s playing for you unless Nick Chubb gets hurt, and we’re getting late in the game. The odds of getting some production go way up with Williams. He’s been battling for playing time with LeSean McCoy, and Williams seems to be winning that battle right now – played a lot more in the Vikings game.

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Question 5

League host sites typically show how a given team rates against each position (i.e. #24 vs QB). For the WR position, I'd love to know which teams excel (or don't excel) vs. WR1s & WR2s (for teams with a fairly defined WR1/WR2). Who have been the true shutdown corners thus far? Which #2 corners are teams picking on, with success?

Holmes McQueen ()

It’s hard for cornerbacks to shut down anyone nowadays, the way the game is structured. Even the best ones can get torched. Had you asked me a month ago, for example, I might have identified Patrick Peterson and Xavier Rhodes as two of the guys who should be avoided. But Peterson had a rough night last Thursday against the 49ers, and Rhodes has been giving up a lot of plays. Right now, I’d say there are only two who really get might attention. Stephon Gillmore in New England, and Jalen Ramsey with the Rams. Those are the two where I start getting worried about how many looks my No. 1 receiver might get if he’s playing against them. The Patriots have allowed only one touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Buffalo is sitting at 2. The Bears and Cowboys have allowed 4 TD passes to wide receivers.

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Question 6

An owner in our league (10 teams) waived Josh Jacobs last week (any comment you’re thinking is probably appropriate) and the rest of the league is salivating for a chance to get him this week. We have a silent bid process for FAs and a set budget of money for the year to bid on free agents. Where do you rate Jacobs for "rest of the year" and what percent of your entire budget would you bid on him? Thanks for any help!

BILL PETERS (Roselle, IL)

I would be willing to bid all of my available dollars, if necessary. I like what the Raiders are doing with their running game. They’ve run for at least 155 yards in five of their last six games. They’ve put together a good offensive line, they’re looking to pound the ball, and Jacobs is their guy. I think he might be a top-5 back the rest of the way. If a player of that caliber is available on the waiver wire, I think you do whatever it takes to get him.

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Question 7

Here is a trivia question for you: <b>Raider rookies:</b> The Raiders are getting impressive contributions from their rookie class, with a franchise-record four TDs in last week’s win over Detroit. Josh Jacobs is leading the way with 740 yards rushing and 6 TDs, while tight end Foster Moreau has added 3 TD catches and receiver Hunter Renfrow has 2. The 11 TDs from rookies are five more than the next-highest team, Washington, and tied for the most through eight games since which NFL team had 16 in 1983?

Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)

I was not aware of this. I haven’t double-checked the answer, but 1983 is a huge hint. There was a certain upright runner who piled up a lot of yards and touchdowns that year. According to the search tools at Pro Football Reference there have been 71 rookies in the Super Bowl era who have scored at least 10 touchdowns.

ROOKIES WITH 10 TOUCHDOWNS
PlayerYearTmTD
Franco Harris1972PIT11
Jon Keyworth1974DEN10
Don Woods1974SDG10
Stan Fritts1975CIN10
Sammy White1976MIN10
Tony Dorsett1977DAL13
Earl Campbell1978HOU13
John Jefferson1978SDG13
Ottis Anderson1979STL10
Billy Sims1980DET16
Curtis Dickey1980BAL13
Joe Cribbs1980BUF12
George Rogers1981NOR13
Billy Jackson1981KAN11
Marcus Allen1982RAI14
Eric Dickerson1983RAM20
Curt Warner1983SEA14
Roger Craig1983SFO12
Louis Lipps1984PIT11
Daryl Turner1984SEA10
Ron Davenport1985MIA13
Kevin Mack1985CLE10
Tim Spencer1985SDG10
Herschel Walker1986DAL14
Ickey Woods1988CIN15
Barry Sanders1989DET14
Eric Metcalf1989CLE10
Emmitt Smith1990DAL11
Ricky Watters1992SFO11
Marshall Faulk1994IND12
Curtis Martin1995NWE15
Rashaan Salaam1995CHI10
Karim Abdul-Jabbar1996MIA11
Eddie Kennison1996STL11
Corey Dillon1997CIN10
Fred Taylor1998JAX17
Randy Moss1998MIN17
Robert Edwards1998NWE12
Edgerrin James1999IND17
Mike Anderson2000DEN15
Dominic Rhodes2001IND10
LaDainian Tomlinson2001SDG10
Clinton Portis2002DEN17
Willis McGahee2004BUF13
Maurice Jones-Drew2006JAX16
Adrian Peterson2007MIN13
Matt Forte2008CHI12
Tim Hightower2008ARI10
Jonathan Stewart2008CAR10
Steve Slaton2008HOU10
Chris Johnson2008TEN10
Mike Williams2010TAM11
Rob Gronkowski2010NWE10
Cam Newton2011CAR14
Alfred Morris2012WAS13
Trent Richardson2012CLE12
Doug Martin2012TAM12
Eddie Lacy2013GNB11
Odell Beckham2014NYG12
Mike Evans2014TAM12
David Johnson2015ARI13
Todd Gurley2015STL10
Ezekiel Elliott2016DAL16
Tyreek Hill2016KAN12
Alvin Kamara2017NOR14
Kareem Hunt2017KAN11
Leonard Fournette2017JAX10
Saquon Barkley2018NYG15
Calvin Ridley2018ATL10
Nick Chubb2018CLE10
Phillip Lindsay2018DEN10

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Question 8

I'm trying to decide between Ridley, Freeman and Sanders. I can pick two. It looks like Sanders is the #1 guy in SF, and with Sanu gone, I figure that puts Ridley at #2 on a pass oriented offense (or #3 behind Jones and Hooper).I have Ryan for a QB so when Atlanta has a good day, I have a good day. What do you think?

David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)

I think it’s week to week with those guys. You play the matchups. I like Sanders this week, considering Seattle’s struggles against the pass. In general, I will rank Freeman higher than Ridley. As a running back, he’ll get more touches. They’re on the road this week against a good run defense (New Orleans) but Freeman isn’t only a runner but also catches dumpoff balls.

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Question 9

2 potential Trades - ROS which side would you rather be one for each one? Adams & Hooper for M.Thomas & Ertz. Adams, Hooper, L.Murray for Lockett, Kelce, Mixon. Thanks in advance for your opinion!

Todd Washburn (Pleasant Prairie, WI)

I would take the second half in each trade. On trade No. 1, Thomas looks a lot better than Adams, so there’s no need to get into weighing Hooper vs. Ertz. Similarly, in the second trade, Lockett is definitely better than Adams, and the other parts of that trade might also be stronger. I would take Mixon over Murray (figuring there’s some chance Cincinnati’s running game comes on some) and I’ve still got Kelce over Hooper.

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