Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. James Robinson's long-term value. The new committee backfield in Indianapolis. Trading Antonio Gibson in a dynasty league for short-term QB help. And more.
Question 1
How do we view the Indy backfield moving forward? Is Wilkins the best start out of the 3?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
It’s a one-two punch backfield now, I think. They’ve been trying to get Jonathan Taylor going all year, and they haven’t quite been able to get him over the hump. He ran for 101 yards in a Week 2 game against the Vikings, but he needed 26 carries to get there (and that was a bad defense at the time). Taylor has finished with fewer than 70 rushing yards in all of his other games. He’s averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. He’s a big, fast guy, but he just doesn’t seem to have the confidence and command of the offense to hit the holes as decisively as he should. And they’ve got a completely immobile quarterback working out of the shotgun on most plays, which is probably a contributing factor. Taylor carried only 11 times for 22 times at Detroit, picking up some kind of ankle injury. Jordan Wilkins, meanwhile, came off the bench in that game and gave them their best tailback play of the season, carrying 20 times for 89 yards. He doesn’t have the same dynamic talent, but he’s got a better idea of what he’s doing – he’s been around for a few years. So going forward, I would expect we’ll continue to see Taylor starting (when healthy) but with Wilkins getting more carries off the bench. It could be a “hot hand” backfield. And Nyheim Hines will play as well, but he’s in a different class; he’s their third-down back – he’s their James White.
Question 2
What are James Robinson’s prospects moving forward? If Minshew is replaced, how might this impact Robinson’s performance since game script is always a factor? Since he is the primary runner, playing from behind with a backup QB makes it worse? Also, would you keep him for 2021 hoping he gets to play with a top rookie QB such as Lawrence or Fields? Will be interesting to see if JAX drafts a RB as there is little competition currently and most teams prefer a RBBC approach.
Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)
What’s going on with Minshew, I don’t think affects Robinson much at all. They’re starting Jake Luton this week; if he flops, they’ll go back to Minshew very quickly. But I saw a blurb go by that some in Jacksonville hope or think that the offense might be better without Minshew; Luton, the theory goes, has a stronger arm, so there will be more ability to drive the ball downfield. (Or, a cynic might say, Jacksonville is hoping to lose games in the second half of the season, giving it a better chance of drafting a Burrow-Herbert type quarterback next spring.) When they show up for camp in 2021, there will definitely be another notable running back. As it stands now, if you take away the 32 starters at that position, the Jaguars have by far the worst running back situation in the league – they don’t seem to have anyone who could step in and adequately play in a starting role. Whether that free agent signing or second-, third- or fourth-round draft pick is able to beat out Robinson remains to be seen. Robinson has been effective this year; he plays hard, and he’s both a runner and a receiver. Most likely, I would think, they’ll have a one-two punch of running backs in 2021, and Robinson will be the more effective of the two. There were 15 running backs selected in the first four rounds of the 2020 draft, and Robinson seems to be a much better player than almost all of those guys.
Question 3
I need a QB – only have Dalton and Prescott. It's a keeper league – Gibson is scoring this year, and will be good next year (IMHO). Can trade Gibson for Roethlisberger or Mayfield, or can roll with Dalton and pick up Darnold (14 team league and not much left). Can trade Kelley for Foles, but what does that really get me?
GEORGE TSAKATARAS (Wilmington, DE)
I agree that Gibson looks good. He seems to be picking up the position effectively, and that’s a coaching staff that knows how to feature a running back (they gave Christian McCaffrey plenty of touches last year). But you are going to need a quarterback, and Roethlisberger looks pretty good as a short-term solution. Darnold isn’t going to do it for you. The only other option (which I’m not crazy about) would be to pick up Foles in the less-painful trade and hope his numbers are helped along by Chicago’s schedule. I posted a blurb on the website the other day. The Bears have by far the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Their next seven games are against teams that are currently allow over 29 points per game (that’s 2 points higher than anyone else). Those games are against defenses that so far have allowed an average of 276 passing yards and 2.2 TD passes per game.
Question 4
I have the following RBs: Hunt, Gordon, Edmonds and Gibson. Would it be better to have Edmonds and Gordon? Or Edmonds and Drake? Trying to see if I should be trading a guy or so to get the other half of the RB tandem or am I better off the way I am.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
In general, I’m a fan of pairing running backs. If I’ve got James Conner, I definitely want Benny Snell. If I’ve got Aaron Jones, I want Jamaal Williams. If that No. 2 back has the ability to come in and perform, I want him. In your case, Kenyan Drake would be the logical back to add. I think Chase Edmonds is going to be the best running back in Arizona for the rest of the season, but that’s subject to developments. If Edmonds goes out and lays an egg on Sunday, that will affect how they view Drake when he comes back in a week or two. While Drake has underperformed this year, he would be a nice guy for you to have around, allowing you to sew up that backfield. At the same time, you would be a little nervous about getting rid of Melvin Gordon. Your other running backs – Hunt, Gibson – aren’t rock-solid starters. There could be weeks you would prefer to use Gordon (especially if Phillip Lindsay misses any more games). I could go either way on this one.
Question 5
I've been discussing trades to upgrade at QB. I've been starting Roethlisberger and Stafford, but have been offered a deal for Tannehill. I'd be giving up JuJu. The league is a half-point ppr. I'm getting CMC back to join Conner and J. Taylor, and have A.J. Brown, Fuller and Hopkins as my starting WRs. It seems to me that Ben and Matt are pretty similar in production; do you think the Tannehill's playoff schedule suggests enough of an upgrade to justify giving up the depth that JuJu provides down the stretch (I'd have to sub in Beasley or Gallup should I lose someone to injury)?
Randy Jackson (Lone Tree, CO)
I got out the schedule and looked at the December games. Tannehill has nice matchups in Weeks 13-15, but I don’t see him in those games as necessarily an upgrade over what you would otherwise start. I think Tannehill in Week 13 (vs. Cleveland) will be ranked above Stafford (at Chicago) and Roethlisberger (vs. Washington), but the other weeks look like a crapshoot. I would be inclined to hang onto JuJu Smith-Schuster, retaining some depth for your receiver and flex spots. (You definitely don’t want to get to the point where you’re putting Michael Gallup on the field.)