Dynasty Leagues

November 14, 2020

Long-term QB rankings

Long-term prospects for the rookie QBs

Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa go head-to-head on Sunday, and that’s a notable matchup: two quarterbacks who could be notable players at the position for years. Herbert has been ripping it up for two months, while Tagovailoa comes off his first big game as a pro.

If we shift the attention from 2020 and look more long-term, Herbert looks like the stronger choice right now, given what he’s been able to do in a half season as a starter. Tagovailoa may have been selected one pick earlier in the draft in April, but I think most NFL teams and fantasy GMs right now would prefer Herbert if given that choice.

Herbert has been good enough, in fact, that I wonder how many would select him before even the third of the high-profile rookie quarterbacks. Joe Burrow has more than met expectations for the Bengals, but I think Herbert has been a little more impressive. I would be torn between those quarterbacks.

If I were walking into a dynasty draft today, I would be locked in on Patrick Mahomes as the top quarterback on the board. (I think pretty much everyone would.). It’s after him that the decisions get trickier. Russell Wilson has been awesome this year, but Deshaun Watson is really good and is seven years younger. Kyler Murray is a dynamic pass-run threat in his second year, but I don’t know how long his playing style is sustainable.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both in their third year, and they’ve both put up some great numbers, but I think Herbert and Burrow can be compared to those guys (as long-term prospects). There’s also Aaron Rodgers, but he’s 36, which has to decrease his value somewhat – these are long-term rankings.

The list here is put together by hand. Basically, I’m just going through the thing over and over and trying to make it feel right, balancing how good the guys are right now versus what they might be doing in 3-5 years. Assume standard scoring and a 12-team league, with fantasy franchises holding the rights to players indefinitely.

With dynasty leagues, I hit a different position each Saturday. Last week it was wide receivers. Next week it will be running backs. To see the previous versions, use the “past issues” links on the right side of the page.

DYNASTY QUARTERBACKS
Rk	Tm	Player	Age	Prev
1.	KC	Patrick Mahomes	25	1
2.	HOU	Deshaun Watson	25	2
3.	SEA	Russell Wilson	31	3
4.	ARI	Kyler Murray	23	8
5.	LAC	• Justin Herbert	23	7
6.	CIN	• Joe Burrow	22	6
7.	BUF	Josh Allen	24	5
8.	BAL	Lamar Jackson	23	4
9.	GB	Aaron Rodgers	36	9
10.	LAR	Jared Goff	26	11
11.	DAL	Dak Prescott	27	13
12.	DET	Matthew Stafford	32	10
13.	PHI	Carson Wentz	27	14
14.	LV	Derek Carr	29	17
15.	MIA	• Tua Tagovailoa	22	18
16.	NYG	Daniel Jones	23	19
17.	CLE	Baker Mayfield	25	16
18.	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	32	21
19.	MIN	Kirk Cousins	32	20
20.	ATL	Matt Ryan	35	25
21.	NE	Cam Newton	31	12
22.	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	38	22
23.	TB	Tom Brady	43	23
24.	NO	Drew Brees	41	26
25.	CAR	Teddy Bridgewater	28	24
26.	DEN	Drew Lock	24	28
27.	NO	Taysom Hill	30	31
28.	NYJ	Sam Darnold	23	29
29.	JAC	Gardner Minshew	25	15
30.	CHI	Nick Foles	31	30
31.	SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	29	32
32.	GB	• Jordan Love	22	33
33.	IND	Philip Rivers	38	36
34.	JAC	• Jake Luton	24	--
35.	DAL	Andy Dalton	33	27
36.	WAS	Dwayne Haskins	23	37
37.	IND	Jacoby Brissett	27	38
38.	MIA	Ryan Fitzpatrick	38	34
39.	CLE	Case Keenum	32	43
40.	WAS	Kyle Allen	24	35
41.	NO	Jameis Winston	26	40
42.	PHI	• Jalen Hurts	22	42
43.	SF	Nick Mullens	25	49
44.	NE	Jarrett Stidham	24	46
45.	WAS	Alex Smith	36	--
46.	CHI	Mitchell Trubisky	26	41
47.	LAC	Tyrod Taylor	31	44
48.	NYJ	Joe Flacco	35	48
49.	DEN	Brett Rypien	24	--
50.	KC	Chad Henne	35	47

—Ian Allan

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