The 49ers look like they’re going to select a quarterback in the upcoming draft. They’ve made a power move up to the No. 3 pick overall, trading away three first-round picks. With that kind of price tag, it’s looking certain the 49ers will choose a quarterback.
Miami originally held the No. 3 pick (picked up in a trade with Houston) but moved down to 12th, also picking up first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, and a 2022 third-round pick. The Dolphins then moved back up to 6th by trading that first round pick to Philadelphia. In exchange for moving down from 6th to 12th, the Eagles captured Miami’s 2022 pick. The Eagles-Dolphins trade also included a couple of middle-round picks.
Trevor Lawrence will be the first pick of the draft. After him, four other quarterbacks look like candidates to possibly be selected in the top 10: Zach Wilson (pictured), Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. If the 49ers like one of those quarterbacks a lot more than the others, they’re not saying which one it is.
The various reports circulating around in recent weeks suggest Wilson most likely will be No. 2 overall pick. That probably would leave the 49ers choosing either Fields or Lance. Probably Fields.
If the 49ers were to choose Lance, that would increase the odds of Jimmy Garoppolo sticking around for another season. Lance played his college ball at a smaller school (North Dakota State) and also hardly played last year. If the 49ers were to choose one of the other quarterbacks, that would make them more likely to jettison Garoppolo.
The conventional thinking is that Lawrence will be the most productive of the rookie quarterbacks, and he indeed looks like possibly the best rookie quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. But history indicates there’s a decent chance one of these other quarterbacks might finish with better numbers (in the short term, anyway).
In the last nine years, only twice has the first quarterback chosen finished with the best numbers (among rookie QBs) in his first year. Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, have been good enough No. 1 overall picks the last two years, but Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert in their first year averaged better per-game numbers.
On this endeavor, I’m using per-game production for standard scoring. And for a quarterback to qualify for consideration, he much have started at least half of the season. (Deshaun Watson, for example, put up great numbers early in 2017 but suffered a season-ending knee injury in October.)
Not sure if it will be Fields, Lance or somebody else, but the 49ers have a nice offense in place, with a good running game, a good system, and a great group of pass catchers (Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk).
In the chart below, the players in bold were the first quarterbacks chosen in the draft the year they came out.
| BEST ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS EACH YEAR | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pt/G | Rk |
| 2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 15 | 195 | .73 | 9 | .40 | 16.0 | 20 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 162 | .56 | 18 | .19 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13 | 207 | .92 | 8 | .15 | 15.8 | 20 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13 | 188 | 1.15 | 11 | .08 | 15.6 | 24 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 15 | 125 | .60 | 3 | .00 | 8.9 | 32 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 13 | 159 | .85 | 41 | .54 | 18.8 | 9 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 9 | 170 | .78 | 5 | .00 | 12.2 | 29 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 215 | 1.00 | 7 | .06 | 15.9 | 21 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 227 | 1.30 | 11 | .20 | 19.0 | 14 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Wash. | 15 | 213 | 1.33 | 54 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 197 | 1.10 | 19 | .20 | 17.7 | 25 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 231 | 1.17 | 15 | .08 | 18.6 | 21 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 235 | 1.58 | 21 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 229 | 1.44 | 18 | .38 | 21.2 | 17 |
| 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9 | 204 | 1.00 | 30 | .22 | 18.8 | 17 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271 | 2.08 | 10 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 251 | 2.00 | 23 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 289 | 2.07 | 16 | .33 | 26.5 | 4 |
—Ian Allan