Re-stacking the board - Overall projections for remaining 3 weeks of the playoffs

Some out there, I am told, are starting their fantasy playoff competitions now. That solves the issue of some teams having byes, and there were a bunch of clunker games in a less-than-super Wild Card Weekend. With that in mind, let me take a moment to take a stab at an overall board.

Up front, let me point out that these are initial, ball-park estimates. We’re just getting into looking at each of this week’s four games in detail. We’re writing those up today, and they’ll be published tomorrow. But I’ve done some preliminary toying around with the numbers, adjusting for how guys played in the wild-card games.

Cam Akers, for example, has been moved up to No. 1 among the Los Angeles running backs. I thought he looked really good last night. Sony Michel started that game, but Akers played more and played more impressively. Hard to believe he underwent surgery on a torn Achilles tendon half a year ago.

Key on this kind of project is deciding on which teams will make it to the Super Bowl. Two teams will play in three games, and the players from those teams should tend to finish with more cumulative stats. By my estimation (and I think any sportsbook would agree) the Packers are the favorites to win this thing, followed by Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay.

In deciding on the game totals, I started by forecasting each of the upcoming four games. Green Bay, I’m figuring, has about an 85 percent chance of beating San Francisco, so I moved the Packers to 1.85 games and the 49ers to 1.15 games. Similarly, I’m giving Tampa Bay a 60 percent chance of winning this week, so the Bucs move to 1.60 games, with the Rams at 1.40.

For the conference championship games, I divided them up between each of the four teams. On the NFC side, I gave Green Bay 60 percent of that last game (moving them from 1.85 to 2.45 games), Tampa Bay 25 percent and Los Angeles 15 percent. San Francisco isn’t such a wild outlier that it should get none of that remaining game, so I gave them a 1 in 25 chance of winning that championship game (that’s .04), then shave a little off the other teams to make the numbers square up.

Ultimately, I ended up with a projected number of games for each team, then multiplied those against the kind of production I would expect from each player per week.

By my math, Aaron Rodgers should be the No. 1 player chosen, followed by Davante Adams (using PPR scoring). The next three picks would be the other notable quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Tom Brady.

On the chart below, I’m showing the top 100 field players. The stats are of the per-game variety, but the final column (PPR points) shows those stats multiplied by the expected number of games.

PLAYOFFS: EXPECTED REMAINING PRODUCTION
Rk	Pod	Tm	Player	G	Pass	TDP	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
1	QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	2.44	275	2.50	0	6	.10	60.8
2	WR	GB	Davante Adams	2.44	0	.00	100	0	.86	56.1
3	QB	KC	Patrick Mahomes	2.00	297	2.18	0	17	.15	52.3
4	QB	BUF	Josh Allen	1.85	272	1.90	0	46	.36	51.6
5	QB	TB	Tom Brady	1.83	285	2.00	0	3	.12	42.6
6	RB	GB	Aaron Jones	2.44	0	.00	24	55	.75	38.0
7	QB	CIN	Joe Burrow	1.55	272	1.98	0	7	.09	35.3
8	QB	LAR	Matthew Stafford	1.54	267	2.02	0	2	.02	33.5
9	WR	LAR	Cooper Kupp	1.54	0	.00	97	1	.66	32.5
10	WR	KC	Tyreek Hill	2.00	0	.00	66	4	.59	32.4
11	TE	KC	Travis Kelce	2.00	1	.01	68	0	.61	32.0
12	QB	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	1.60	223	1.26	0	15	.35	31.6
13	RB	BUF	Devin Singletary	1.85	0	.00	22	68	.68	31.1
14	WR	BUF	Stefon Diggs	1.85	0	.00	72	0	.48	29.3
15	WR	TB	Mike Evans	1.83	0	.00	69	0	.63	28.8
16	RB	GB	AJ Dillon	2.44	0	.00	17	48	.55	28.7
17	WR	CIN	JaMarr Chase	1.55	0	.00	83	2	.73	27.4
18	RB	CIN	Joe Mixon	1.55	0	.00	21	71	.89	26.8
19	TE	TB	Rob Gronkowski	1.83	0	.00	66	0	.48	26.5
20	WR	GB	Allen Lazard	2.44	0	.00	44	0	.43	25.9
21	RB	TB	Leonard Fournette	1.83	0	.00	20	55	.59	25.7
22	WR	SF	Deebo Samuel	1.19	0	.00	57	43	.95	23.5
23	RB	KC	Jerick McKinnon	2.00	0	.00	24	35	.47	23.3
24	WR	CIN	Tee Higgins	1.55	0	.00	72	0	.38	22.3
25	QB	SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	1.19	252	1.39	0	1	.07	22.3
26	WR	KC	Mecole Hardman	2.00	0	.00	46	4	.27	20.7
27	WR	TEN	A.J. Brown	1.60	0	.00	61	1	.35	20.4
28	RB	TEN	Derrick Henry	1.60	0	.00	9	67	.62	19.9
29	TE	BUF	Dawson Knox	1.85	0	.00	41	0	.42	18.9
30	WR	LAR	Odell Beckham	1.54	0	.00	49	2	.52	18.8
31	WR	KC	Byron Pringle	2.00	0	.00	43	0	.29	18.5
32	PK	GB	Mason Crosby	2.44	0	.00	0	0	.00	17.8
33	WR	BUF	Gabriel Davis	1.85	0	.00	44	0	.38	17.7
34	RB	SF	Elijah Mitchell	1.19	0	.00	13	81	.63	17.7
35	WR	GB	M. Valdes-Scantling	2.44	0	.00	33	0	.30	17.6
36	TE	LAR	Tyler Higbee	1.54	0	.00	43	0	.37	17.2
37	RB	LAR	Cam Akers	1.54	0	.00	16	48	.43	17.1
38	WR	CIN	Tyler Boyd	1.55	0	.00	49	1	.30	16.6
39	WR	BUF	Isaiah McKenzie	1.85	0	.00	31	5	.19	15.3
40	PK	KC	Harrison Butker	2.00	0	.00	0	0	.00	15.1
41	WR	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	1.19	0	.00	61	1	.34	15.1
42	WR	LAR	Van Jefferson	1.54	0	.00	43	1	.34	14.3
43	RB	TB	Giovani Bernard	1.83	0	.00	17	19	.21	14.2
44	WR	TEN	Julio Jones	1.60	0	.00	43	0	.23	13.9
45	PK	TB	Ryan Succop	1.83	0	.00	0	0	.00	13.6
46	PK	BUF	Tyler Bass	1.85	0	.00	0	0	.00	13.6
47	TE	GB	Josiah Deguara	2.44	0	.00	19	0	.18	12.7
48	WR	TEN	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1.60	0	.00	36	0	.19	12.5
49	TE	SF	George Kittle	1.19	0	.00	50	0	.30	12.5
50	RB	LAR	Sony Michel	1.54	0	.00	8	40	.33	12.5
51	TE	CIN	C.J. Uzomah	1.55	0	.00	33	0	.35	12.4
52	RB	KC	Darrel Williams	2.00	0	.00	15	16	.24	12.3
53	RB	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2.00	0	.00	9	23	.27	12.2
54	TE	TEN	Anthony Firkser	1.60	0	.00	29	0	.15	11.9
55	PK	CIN	Evan McPherson	1.55	0	.00	0	0	.00	11.8
56	PK	LAR	Matt Gay	1.54	0	.00	0	0	.00	11.3
57	PK	TEN	Randy Bullock	1.60	0	.00	0	0	.00	11.3
58	WR	BUF	Cole Beasley	1.85	0	.00	25	0	.13	11.3
59	TE	GB	Marcedes Lewis	2.44	0	.00	17	0	.15	10.7
60	WR	BUF	Emmanuel Sanders	1.85	0	.00	29	0	.15	10.6
61	WR	TB	Tyler Johnson	1.83	0	.00	26	0	.12	10.4
62	WR	TB	Cyril Grayson	1.83	0	.00	29	0	.16	10.2
63	WR	SF	Jauan Jennings	1.19	0	.00	36	0	.27	10.2
64	RB	TB	KeShawn Vaughn	1.83	0	.00	6	24	.22	9.5
65	TE	TB	Cameron Brate	1.83	0	.00	17	0	.23	9.2
66	WR	KC	Demarcus Robinson	2.00	0	.00	18	0	.15	8.7
67	WR	TB	Breshad Perriman	1.83	0	.00	23	0	.14	8.6
68	RB	TEN	Dontrell Hilliard	1.60	0	.00	9	21	.18	8.3
69	RB	TEN	D'Onta Foreman	1.60	0	.00	7	25	.20	8.3
70	PK	SF	Robbie Gould	1.19	0	.00	0	0	.00	8.2
71	TE	TEN	Geoff Swaim	1.60	0	.00	14	0	.13	6.4
72	WR	GB	Randall Cobb	2.44	0	.00	11	0	.08	6.0
73	RB	BUF	Zack Moss	1.85	0	.00	7	9	.10	5.5
74	RB	CIN	Samaje Perine	1.55	0	.00	8	9	.09	5.3
75	WR	GB	Equanimeous St. Brown	2.44	0	.00	8	1	.05	4.8
76	RB	SF	Kyle Juszczyk	1.19	0	.00	14	1	.08	4.1
77	WR	TEN	Chester Rogers	1.60	0	.00	9	0	.07	3.5
78	WR	TB	Scotty Miller	1.83	0	.00	7	1	.04	2.9
79	RB	SF	JaMycal Hasty	1.19	0	.00	8	3	.03	2.8
80	TE	KC	Blake Bell	2.00	0	.00	5	0	.04	2.4
81	RB	KC	Derrick Gore	2.00	0	.00	1	5	.06	2.3
82	RB	CIN	Chris Evans	1.55	0	.00	4	4	.02	2.0
83	RB	KC	Michael Burton	2.00	0	.00	2	1	.05	1.9
84	TE	GB	Tyler Davis	2.44	0	.00	3	0	.03	1.8
85	WR	LAR	Ben Skowronek	1.54	0	.00	5	0	.02	1.7
86	WR	SF	Trent Sherfield	1.19	0	.00	8	0	.04	1.7
87	TE	BUF	Reggie Gilliam	1.85	0	.00	2	1	.06	1.6
88	WR	TEN	Racey McMath	1.60	0	.00	5	0	.03	1.6
89	TE	LAR	Kendall Blanton	1.54	0	.00	4	0	.01	1.4
90	RB	TB	Ronald Jones	1.83	0	.00	1	3	.02	1.4
91	WR	TB	Justin Watson	1.83	0	.00	3	0	.02	1.2
92	TE	CIN	Drew Sample	1.55	0	.00	3	0	.03	1.1
93	TE	SF	Charlie Woerner	1.19	0	.00	4	0	.02	1.0
94	TE	TEN	Tommy Hudson	1.60	0	.00	2	0	.03	1.0
95	TE	KC	Noah Gray	2.00	0	.00	2	0	.01	1.0
96	TE	TB	O.J. Howard	1.83	0	.00	2	0	.01	.8
97	WR	TB	Jaelon Darden	1.83	0	.00	1	0	.04	.8
98	WR	SF	Travis Benjamin	1.19	0	.00	3	0	.03	.8
99	RB	TEN	Khari Blasingame	1.60	0	.00	1	1	.03	.8
100	RB	SF	Jeff Wilson	1.19	0	.00	1	3	.02	.7

—Ian Allan

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