I’m throwing another prop bet on the pile: Joe Mixon under 60.5 rushing yards. The Bengals don’t run the ball all that well, and the Rams have been playing really well defensively.
Mixon has finished with fewer than 60 rushing yards in six of his last eight games. He’s also finished under 3.4 yards per carry in half of those games – getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage often.
Also note if we set aside September (Cincy’s first four games) he’s accounted for only 68 percent of his team’s rushing production. So for him to get up to 60-plus rushing yards, you would really need the Bengals as a team to run for about 89 yards (then you take away the Burrow scrambles, end-arounds to Chase and Higgins and change-of-pace carries by Perine and you would be left with about 60 yards for Mixon). I think that is setting the bar too high.
Mixon’s game logs appear below. In bold are the weeks where Mixon fell short of 60 rushing yards. I left out the Week 18 game at Cleveland, because Mixon didn’t play (and nor did a bunch of the team’s regulars).
|JOE MIXON GAME LOGS|
|at CHI||L 17-20||20||69||3.5||0||69||100%|
|at PIT||W 24-10||18||90||5.0||0||96||94%|
|at DET||W 34-11||18||94||5.2||0||142||66%|
|at BAL||W 41-17||12||59||4.9||1||111||53%|
|at NYJ||L 31-34||14||33||2.4||1||41||80%|
|at LVR||W 32-13||30||123||4.1||2||159||77%|
|at DEN||W 15-10||17||58||3.4||0||113||51%|
|at TEN||W 19-16||14||54||3.9||1||65||83%|
|at KAN||W 27-24||21||88||4.2||0||116||76%|
The Rams, meanwhile, have been playing really well on defense. They completely shut down Arizona in their first playoff game. They’ve won each of their last two games by 3 points, but I felt both of those games, under slightly different circumstances, perhaps should have been won by double-digit scores – their defense was very solid in both of them. The 49ers run the ball a lot better than the Bengals but finished with only 50 rushing yards last week.
For Mixon to have a good chance of running for 60-plus yards, you would want the Bengals to run for close to 90 yards. Yet the Rams have allowed more than 80 in only three of their last nine games. One of those was against the 49ers (who run the ball well), and another was at Arizona (with Kyler Murray getting most of the yards on scrambles).
|RAMS RUSHING DEFENSE|
|at IND||W 27-24||26||109||4.2||0|
|at SEA||W 26-17||25||92||3.7||0|
|at NYG||W 38-11||18||60||3.3||1|
|at HOU||W 38-22||14||44||3.1||1|
|at SF||L 10-31||44||156||3.6||1|
|at GB||L 28-36||32||92||2.9||1|
|at ARI||W 30-23||22||103||4.7||2|
|at MIN||W 30-23||22||66||3.0||1|
|at BAL||W 20-19||32||165||5.2||0|
|at TAM||W 30-27||14||51||3.6||2|
Rams have played 20 games. Only six running backs have gone for 60-plus yards against them. Half of those games were blowout losses, which isn’t happening. One of them came way back in Week 1, when the Rams were still getting things dialed in. Elijah Mitchell did it twice, but the 49ers can really run it.
I can’t guarantee Mixon won’t hit 60. There is a chance/probability component. Maybe he pops a couple of 10-20 yarders on draws with the Bengals trailing in the fourth quarter. Maybe Aaron Donald leaves the game in the first quarter with a sprained knee. But in my opinion, Mixon will be beating the odds if he runs for 60-plus yards.
In the chart below, I’ve got in bold the games where the Rams allowed a running back to run for 60-plus yards.
|RUNNING BACKS AGAINST RAMS|
|1||David Montgomery||CHI||L 14-34||16||108||6.8||1|
|1||Damien Williams||CHI||L 14-34||6||12||2.0||0|
|2||Jonathan Taylor||IND||L 24-27||15||51||3.4||0|
|2||Marlon Mack||IND||L 24-27||5||16||3.2||0|
|2||Nyheim Hines||IND||L 24-27||1||5||5.0||0|
|3||Ronald Jones II||TB||L 24-34||5||11||2.2||0|
|3||Leonard Fournette||TB||L 24-34||4||8||2.0||0|
|4||Chase Edmonds||ARI||W 37-20||12||120||10.0||0|
|4||James Conner||ARI||W 37-20||18||50||2.8||2|
|5||Alex Collins||SEA||L 17-26||15||47||3.1||0|
|5||DeeJay Dallas||SEA||L 17-26||4||7||1.8||0|
|5||Travis Homer||SEA||L 17-26||1||5||5.0||0|
|6||Devontae Booker||NYG||L 11-38||12||41||3.4||0|
|6||Elijhaa Penny||NYG||L 11-38||3||15||5.0||1|
|7||Jamaal Williams||DET||L 19-28||12||57||4.8||0|
|7||D'Andre Swift||DET||L 19-28||13||48||3.7||0|
|8||Rex Burkhead||HOU||L 22-38||4||21||5.3||1|
|8||Scottie Phillips||HOU||L 22-38||5||11||2.2||0|
|8||Phillip Lindsay||HOU||L 22-38||3||8||2.7||0|
|8||David Johnson||HOU||L 22-38||2||4||2.0||0|
|9||D'Onta Foreman||TEN||W 28-16||5||29||5.8||0|
|9||Jeremy McNichols||TEN||W 28-16||7||24||3.4||0|
|9||Adrian Peterson||TEN||W 28-16||10||21||2.1||1|
|10||Elijah Mitchell||SF||W 31-10||27||91||3.4||0|
|10||Jeff Wilson||SF||W 31-10||10||28||2.8||0|
|12||AJ Dillon||GB||W 36-28||20||69||3.5||0|
|12||Aaron Jones||GB||W 36-28||10||23||2.3||0|
|13||Carlos Hyde||JAX||L 7-37||9||24||2.7||1|
|13||James Robinson||JAX||L 7-37||8||24||3.0||0|
|14||James Conner||ARI||L 23-30||13||31||2.4||2|
|15||DeeJay Dallas||SEA||L 10-20||8||41||5.1||1|
|15||Rashaad Penny||SEA||L 10-20||11||39||3.6||0|
|16||Alexander Mattison||MIN||L 23-30||13||41||3.2||1|
|16||Kene Nwangwu||MIN||L 23-30||5||8||1.6||0|
|17||Devonta Freeman||BAL||L 19-20||14||76||5.4||0|
|17||Latavius Murray||BAL||L 19-20||11||31||2.8||0|
|18||Elijah Mitchell||SF||W 27-24||21||85||4.1||0|
|18||Jamycal Hasty||SF||W 27-24||1||4||4.0||0|
|19||Chase Edmonds||ARI||L 11-34||8||28||3.5||0|
|19||James Conner||ARI||L 11-34||4||19||4.8||1|
|19||Eno Benjamin||ARI||L 11-34||4||8||2.0||0|
|20||Leonard Fournette||TAM||L 27-30||13||51||3.9||2|
|21||Elijah Mitchell||SF||L 17-20||11||20||1.8||0|