I’m throwing another prop bet on the pile: Joe Mixon under 60.5 rushing yards. The Bengals don’t run the ball all that well, and the Rams have been playing really well defensively.

Mixon has finished with fewer than 60 rushing yards in six of his last eight games. He’s also finished under 3.4 yards per carry in half of those games – getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage often.

Also note if we set aside September (Cincy’s first four games) he’s accounted for only 68 percent of his team’s rushing production. So for him to get up to 60-plus rushing yards, you would really need the Bengals as a team to run for about 89 yards (then you take away the Burrow scrambles, end-arounds to Chase and Higgins and change-of-pace carries by Perine and you would be left with about 60 yards for Mixon). I think that is setting the bar too high.

Mixon’s game logs appear below. In bold are the weeks where Mixon fell short of 60 rushing yards. I left out the Week 18 game at Cleveland, because Mixon didn’t play (and nor did a bunch of the team’s regulars).

MINW 27-24291274.4114985%
at CHIL 17-2020693.5069100%
at PITW 24-1018905.009694%
JAXW 24-2116674.217886%
GBL 22-2510333.3110332%
at DETW 34-1118945.2014266%
at BALW 41-1712594.9111153%
at NYJL 31-3414332.414180%
CLEL 16-4113644.928575%
at LVRW 32-13301234.1215977%
PITW 41-10281655.9219883%
LACL 22-4119542.819656%
SFL 23-2618583.208667%
at DENW 15-1017583.4011351%
BALW 41-2118653.617784%
KANW 34-3112463.806077%
LVRW 26-1917482.807961%
at TENW 19-1614543.916583%
at KANW 27-2421884.2011676%

The Rams, meanwhile, have been playing really well on defense. They completely shut down Arizona in their first playoff game. They’ve won each of their last two games by 3 points, but I felt both of those games, under slightly different circumstances, perhaps should have been won by double-digit scores – their defense was very solid in both of them. The 49ers run the ball a lot better than the Bengals but finished with only 50 rushing yards last week.

For Mixon to have a good chance of running for 60-plus yards, you would want the Bengals to run for close to 90 yards. Yet the Rams have allowed more than 80 in only three of their last nine games. One of those was against the 49ers (who run the ball well), and another was at Arizona (with Kyler Murray getting most of the yards on scrambles).

CHIW 34-14261345.22
at INDW 27-24261094.20
TAMW 34-2413352.72
ARIL 20-37402165.42
at SEAW 26-1725923.70
at NYGW 38-1118603.31
DETW 28-19281374.90
at HOUW 38-2214443.11
TENL 16-2826692.72
at SFL 10-31441563.61
at GBL 28-3632922.91
JAXW 37-725612.41
at ARIW 30-23221034.72
SEAW 20-1019804.21
at MINW 30-2322663.01
at BALW 20-19321655.20
SFL 24-27311354.41
ARIW 34-1118613.41
at TAMW 30-2714513.62
SFW 20-1720502.50

Rams have played 20 games. Only six running backs have gone for 60-plus yards against them. Half of those games were blowout losses, which isn’t happening. One of them came way back in Week 1, when the Rams were still getting things dialed in. Elijah Mitchell did it twice, but the 49ers can really run it.

I can’t guarantee Mixon won’t hit 60. There is a chance/probability component. Maybe he pops a couple of 10-20 yarders on draws with the Bengals trailing in the fourth quarter. Maybe Aaron Donald leaves the game in the first quarter with a sprained knee. But in my opinion, Mixon will be beating the odds if he runs for 60-plus yards.

In the chart below, I’ve got in bold the games where the Rams allowed a running back to run for 60-plus yards.

1David MontgomeryCHIL 14-34161086.81
1Damien WilliamsCHIL 14-346122.00
2Jonathan TaylorINDL 24-2715513.40
2Marlon MackINDL 24-275163.20
2Nyheim HinesINDL 24-27155.00
3Ronald Jones IITBL 24-345112.20
3Leonard FournetteTBL 24-34482.00
4Chase EdmondsARIW 37-201212010.00
4James ConnerARIW 37-2018502.82
5Alex CollinsSEAL 17-2615473.10
5DeeJay DallasSEAL 17-26471.80
5Travis HomerSEAL 17-26155.00
6Devontae BookerNYGL 11-3812413.40
6Elijhaa PennyNYGL 11-383155.01
7Jamaal WilliamsDETL 19-2812574.80
7D'Andre SwiftDETL 19-2813483.70
8Rex BurkheadHOUL 22-384215.31
8Scottie PhillipsHOUL 22-385112.20
8Phillip LindsayHOUL 22-38382.70
8David JohnsonHOUL 22-38242.00
9D'Onta ForemanTENW 28-165295.80
9Jeremy McNicholsTENW 28-167243.40
9Adrian PetersonTENW 28-1610212.11
10Elijah MitchellSFW 31-1027913.40
10Jeff WilsonSFW 31-1010282.80
12AJ DillonGBW 36-2820693.50
12Aaron JonesGBW 36-2810232.30
13Carlos HydeJAXL 7-379242.71
13James RobinsonJAXL 7-378243.00
14James ConnerARIL 23-3013312.42
15DeeJay DallasSEAL 10-208415.11
15Rashaad PennySEAL 10-2011393.60
16Alexander MattisonMINL 23-3013413.21
16Kene NwangwuMINL 23-30581.60
17Devonta FreemanBALL 19-2014765.40
17Latavius MurrayBALL 19-2011312.80
18Elijah MitchellSFW 27-2421854.10
18Jamycal HastySFW 27-24144.00
19Chase EdmondsARIL 11-348283.50
19James ConnerARIL 11-344194.81
19Eno BenjaminARIL 11-34482.00
20Leonard FournetteTAML 27-3013513.92
21Elijah MitchellSFL 17-2011201.80

—Ian Allan