A story in the Charlotte Observer over the weekend said that Carolina has first-round grades on three college quarterbacks: Malik Willis (pictured), Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral. With Carolina picking 6th overall and in desperate need of a quarterback, we can say with some confidence that one of those guys will be a Panther a month from today.
Earlier in the week, Panthers GM Scott Fitterer had said that Sam Darnold was "in the lead" for the starting quarterback job. That's essentially meaningless since the only other quarterback currently on the roster is P.J. Walker, and no way the Panthers open the season with Walker (2 TDs and 8 interceptions in his career) behind center. Carolina will be drafting a quarterback in the first round, and that quarterback will be starting most of the season, if not right away.
When first-round quarterbacks don't start most of their rookie seasons, as was the case with Trey Lance for San Francisco last year, it's increasingly rare -- anomalous, you could say. Over the last 15 years there have been 49 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Thirty-five (nearly three-quarters) started more than half of their rookie season. Forty of them (82 percent) started at least 5 games. That includes Deshaun Watson, who failed to start half the season simply because of getting hurt.
In the table, sorted by rookie year starts, 2021's first-rounders are in bold. Four of five started at least 10 games. That's the likely outcome for whoever Carolina drafts.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE SEASONS (2006-PRESENT) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 15 | 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 352 | 521 | 3801 | 22 | 13 |
| 1 | 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 359 | 602 | 3641 | 12 | 17 |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 349 | 542 | 3722 | 20 | 12 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 14 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 15 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 13 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 17 |
| 1 | 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 15 |
| 3 | 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 11 |
| 18 | 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 12 |
| 6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 4336 | 31 | 10 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 5 |
| 22 | 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 20 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 11 |
| 2 | 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 2334 | 9 | 11 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 310 | 486 | 3725 | 27 | 14 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 2865 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 217 | 393 | 2278 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 184 | 357 | 2199 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 284 | 459 | 3027 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 10 |
| 32 | 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 169 | 320 | 2074 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 214 | 377 | 2547 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 159 | 270 | 1870 | 7 | 10 |
| 1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 264 | 404 | 2688 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 13 |
| 1 | 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 186 | 290 | 1814 | 11 | 5 |
| 17 | 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 119 | 203 | 1365 | 7 | 7 |
| 32 | 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 99 | 170 | 1201 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 19 | 8 |
| 11 | 2006 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 5 | 81 | 137 | 1001 | 9 | 5 |
| 25 | 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 3 | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 41 | 71 | 603 | 5 | 2 |
| 26 | 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 2 | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 1 |
| 22 | 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 2 | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 2007 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 1 | 36 | 66 | 373 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | 2007 | Brady Quinn, Cle. | 0 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | 2020 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Daunting company for Lance. Patrick Mahomes might be the game's best quarterback. Six of the other seven first-rounders to start 3 or fewer games as rookies were out of the league very quickly: Tebow, Lynch, Manziel, Russell, Locker, Quinn. Green Bay giving Aaron Rodgers a multi-year deal augurs poorly for Jordan Love ever amounting to anything. Not much middle ground between star and bust from those guys the last 15 years. Seems like Lance will either hit it big, or, you know.
Draft scuttlebutt to this point seems to have Willis being selected earliest, but there's a lot of misinformation out this time of year. The year Darnold was selected, for example, the Browns were connected to him, Josh Rosen and Josh Allen before ultimately selecting Baker Mayfield. But Willis looks the most interesting from a fantasy perspective, having run for 1,822 yards and 27 TDs his last two seasons at Liberty. If he's the Panthers pick, he'll be a viable -- potentially dynamic -- quarterback in fantasy leagues right away.
--Andy Richardson