If you've heard about Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, you've probably heard about his freakishly small hands that will require the team that drafts him to alter all the door handles at its facility so he'll be able to open them. What you may not have heard is that he'll be the first quarterback drafted, no later than 6th overall.
Draft talking heads will try to obscure this reality, talking about Liberty's Malik Willis or perhaps Mississippi's Matt Corral. They're also among the top quarterbacks coming out of college this year, and they'll likely be selected in the first round of the draft.
(Aside, I see where NFL.com's Bucky Brooks has released a mock draft with no quarterbacks picked in round 1. High comedy. If he's looking to get noticed, it worked, but all publicity is not, in fact, good publicity.)
To me Pickett looks like the clear best bet to be a future franchise quarterback, 8 5/8-inch hand size or no, and I think he'll look that way to Carolina's decision-makers, too. They don't have the time or luxury to work with a quarterback who's going to need a lot of development, ala Willis. They need someone ready to start quickly. That's Pickett.
With COVID wiping out a lot of students and schools' 2020 seasons, Pickett was able to return for a fifth college season in 2021. He used that extra opportunity and development to turn in a breakout campaign, throwing for 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns. It was one of the best final years of college by a top quarterback prospect in the last 20 years, and it helped him finish 3rd in the Heisman voting.
The below table is sorted by passing yards from first-round picks in their final year of college. Included are six quarterbacks who will or may be selected in the first round a month from now.
FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, FIRST-ROUND QBS (2002-PRESENT) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | School | Com | Att | P Yds | TDP | Int |
2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow | Louisiana State | 402 | 527 | 5671 | 60 | 6 |
2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | Texas Tech | 388 | 591 | 5052 | 41 | 10 |
2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | Ohio State | 373 | 533 | 4831 | 50 | 8 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State | 408 | 564 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | California | 341 | 529 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 285 | 404 | 4627 | 43 | 6 |
2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 388 | 579 | 4593 | 41 | 17 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Boston College | 388 | 654 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
2021 | 15 | Mac Jones | Alabama | 311 | 402 | 4500 | 41 | 4 |
2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | North Carolina State | 348 | 483 | 4491 | 34 | 7 |
2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Miami (Ohio) | 342 | 495 | 4486 | 37 | 10 |
2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 304 | 445 | 4454 | 42 | 4 |
2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 260 | 377 | 4361 | 42 | 7 |
2022 | ? | Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 334 | 497 | 4319 | 42 | 7 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 291 | 406 | 4293 | 37 | 6 |
2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | Marshall | 331 | 491 | 4268 | 30 | 10 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | Delaware | 331 | 521 | 4263 | 23 | 5 |
2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold | Southern California | 303 | 480 | 4143 | 26 | 13 |
2022 | ? | Carson Strong | Nevada | 366 | 522 | 4175 | 36 | 8 |
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | 300 | 429 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington | Marshall | 292 | 433 | 4006 | 38 | 12 |
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | 303 | 427 | 3970 | 31 | 4 |
2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | 305 | 467 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Southern California | 283 | 431 | 3815 | 28 | 8 |
2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch | Memphis | 296 | 443 | 3776 | 28 | 4 |
2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen | UCLA | 283 | 452 | 3756 | 26 | 10 |
2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | North Carolina | 304 | 447 | 3748 | 30 | 6 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Texas A&M | 327 | 531 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
2021 | 2 | Zach Wilson | Brigham Young | 247 | 336 | 3692 | 33 | 3 |
1999 | 11 | Daunte Culpepper | Central Florida | 296 | 402 | 3690 | 28 | 7 |
2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | 254 | 430 | 3660 | 27 | 10 |
1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | Washington State | 210 | 375 | 3637 | 33 | 10 |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Central Florida | 259 | 382 | 3581 | 25 | 9 |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Stanford | 288 | 404 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
2020 | 6 | Justin Herbert | Oregon | 286 | 428 | 3471 | 32 | 6 |
2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | Notre Dame | 289 | 467 | 3426 | 37 | 7 |
2020 | 26 | Jordan Love | Utah State | 293 | 473 | 3402 | 20 | 17 |
2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman | Florida | 287 | 503 | 3402 | 22 | 17 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | Florida State | 263 | 387 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
2022 | ? | Matt Corral | Mississippi | 262 | 386 | 3349 | 20 | 5 |
2022 | ? | Desmond Ridder | Cincinnati | 251 | 387 | 3334 | 30 | 8 |
1999 | 3 | Akili Smith | Oregon | 191 | 325 | 3307 | 30 | 7 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Southern California | 241 | 366 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Missouri | 301 | 475 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | 231 | 334 | 3153 | 24 | 9 |
1999 | 12 | Cade McNown | UCLA | 188 | 323 | 3130 | 23 | 10 |
2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | Tulane | 251 | 422 | 3077 | 33 | 14 |
2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | Vanderbilt | 273 | 462 | 3073 | 21 | 9 |
2022 | ? | Sam Howell | North Carolina | 217 | 347 | 3056 | 24 | 9 |
2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Texas | 212 | 325 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | Kansas State | 224 | 382 | 2945 | 20 | 8 |
2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | Tulane | 256 | 449 | 2935 | 22 | 13 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | Florida | 213 | 314 | 2895 | 21 | 5 |
2022 | ? | Malik Willis | Liberty | 207 | 339 | 2857 | 27 | 12 |
2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | Alabama | 180 | 252 | 2840 | 33 | 3 |
2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller | California | 225 | 421 | 2815 | 28 | 10 |
2021 | 3 | Trey Lance | North Dakota State | 192 | 287 | 2786 | 28 | 0 |
2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | Auburn | 188 | 270 | 2700 | 20 | 7 |
2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones | Duke | 237 | 392 | 2674 | 22 | 9 |
2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | California | 209 | 316 | 2566 | 24 | 8 |
College production isn't everything, as shown by the presence of Dwayne Haskins and Brandon Weeden near the top of this list, and Aaron Rodgers near the bottom. But a lot of the better recent quarterbacks do wind up near the top, including Joe Burrow (who Pickett is often compared to, and not just for his hand size) and Patrick Mahomes. And a lot of busts or at least questionable guys near the bottom -- Freeman, Ramsey, Tebow, Campbell.
I talked about Willis earlier in the week, noting that if he hits he could have the most fantasy upside, due to his potential as a runner. Pickett will run a little, having carried in 20 TDs on the ground in his career, but he's not going to be the kind of dual threat Willis is.
But if we're talking about which quarterback is the likeliest to be a Day 1 starter, and emerge as a solid NFL passer, I'm giving the edge to Pickett. Carolina is either taking him at No. 6, or they're moving up (or somebody else is looking to jump ahead of them). Pretty confident he'll be the top quarterback selected.
--Andy Richardson