If you've heard about Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, you've probably heard about his freakishly small hands that will require the team that drafts him to alter all the door handles at its facility so he'll be able to open them. What you may not have heard is that he'll be the first quarterback drafted, no later than 6th overall.

Draft talking heads will try to obscure this reality, talking about Liberty's Malik Willis or perhaps Mississippi's Matt Corral. They're also among the top quarterbacks coming out of college this year, and they'll likely be selected in the first round of the draft.

(Aside, I see where NFL.com's Bucky Brooks has released a mock draft with no quarterbacks picked in round 1. High comedy. If he's looking to get noticed, it worked, but all publicity is not, in fact, good publicity.)

To me Pickett looks like the clear best bet to be a future franchise quarterback, 8 5/8-inch hand size or no, and I think he'll look that way to Carolina's decision-makers, too. They don't have the time or luxury to work with a quarterback who's going to need a lot of development, ala Willis. They need someone ready to start quickly. That's Pickett.

With COVID wiping out a lot of students and schools' 2020 seasons, Pickett was able to return for a fifth college season in 2021. He used that extra opportunity and development to turn in a breakout campaign, throwing for 4,319 yards and 42 touchdowns. It was one of the best final years of college by a top quarterback prospect in the last 20 years, and it helped him finish 3rd in the Heisman voting.

The below table is sorted by passing yards from first-round picks in their final year of college. Included are six quarterbacks who will or may be selected in the first round a month from now.

FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, FIRST-ROUND QBS (2002-PRESENT)
YearPkPlayerSchoolComAttP YdsTDPInt
20201Joe BurrowLouisiana State4025275671606
201710Patrick MahomesTexas Tech38859150524110
201915Dwayne HaskinsOhio State3735334831508
201222Brandon WeedenOklahoma State40856447273713
20161Jared GoffCalifornia34152947194313
20181Baker MayfieldOklahoma2854044627436
201712Deshaun WatsonClemson38857945934117
20083Matt RyanBoston College38865445073119
202115Mac JonesAlabama3114024500414
20044Philip RiversNorth Carolina State3484834491347
200411Ben RoethlisbergerMiami (Ohio)34249544863710
20152Marcus MariotaOregon3044454454424
20191Kyler MurrayOklahoma2603774361427
2022?Kenny PickettPittsburgh3344974319427
20122Robert Griffin IIIBaylor2914064293376
20037Byron LeftwichMarshall 33149142683010
200818Joe FlaccoDelaware3315214263235
20183Sam DarnoldSouthern California30348041432613
2022?Carson StrongNevada3665224175368
201422Johnny ManzielTexas A&M30042941143713
200018Chad PenningtonMarshall29243340063812
201432Teddy BridgewaterLouisville3034273970314
20151Jameis WinstonFlorida State30546739072518
200610Matt LeinartSouthern California2834313815288
201626Paxton LynchMemphis2964433776284
201810Josh RosenUCLA28345237562610
20172Mitchell TrubiskyNorth Carolina3044473748306
20128Ryan TannehillTexas A&M32753137442915
20212Zach WilsonBrigham Young2473363692333
199911Daunte CulpepperCentral Florida2964023690287
201832Lamar JacksonLouisville25443036602710
19982Ryan LeafWashington State21037536373310
20143Blake BortlesCentral Florida2593823581259
20121Andrew LuckStanford28840435173710
20206Justin HerbertOregon2864283471326
200722Brady QuinnNotre Dame2894673426377
202026Jordan LoveUtah State29347334022017
200322Rex GrossmanFlorida 28750334022217
201316EJ ManuelFlorida State 26338733972310
2022?Matt CorralMississippi2623863349205
2022?Desmond RidderCincinnati2513873334308
19993Akili SmithOregon1913253307307
20095Mark SanchezSouthern California24136632073410
201110Blaine GabbertMissouri3014753186169
20211Trevor LawrenceClemson2313343153249
199912Cade McNownUCLA18832331302310
200422J.P. LosmanTulane25142230773314
200611Jay CutlerVanderbilt2734623073219
2022?Sam HowellNorth Carolina2173473056249
20063Vince YoungTexas21232530362610
200917Josh FreemanKansas State2243822945208
200232Patrick RamseyTulane25644929352213
201025Tim TebowFlorida2133142895215
2022?Malik WillisLiberty20733928572712
20205Tua TagovailoaAlabama1802522840333
200319Kyle BollerCalifornia22542128152810
20213Trey LanceNorth Dakota State1922872786280
200525Jason CampbellAuburn1882702700207
20196Daniel JonesDuke2373922674229
200524Aaron RodgersCalifornia2093162566248

College production isn't everything, as shown by the presence of Dwayne Haskins and Brandon Weeden near the top of this list, and Aaron Rodgers near the bottom. But a lot of the better recent quarterbacks do wind up near the top, including Joe Burrow (who Pickett is often compared to, and not just for his hand size) and Patrick Mahomes. And a lot of busts or at least questionable guys near the bottom -- Freeman, Ramsey, Tebow, Campbell.

I talked about Willis earlier in the week, noting that if he hits he could have the most fantasy upside, due to his potential as a runner. Pickett will run a little, having carried in 20 TDs on the ground in his career, but he's not going to be the kind of dual threat Willis is.

But if we're talking about which quarterback is the likeliest to be a Day 1 starter, and emerge as a solid NFL passer, I'm giving the edge to Pickett. Carolina is either taking him at No. 6, or they're moving up (or somebody else is looking to jump ahead of them). Pretty confident he'll be the top quarterback selected.

--Andy Richardson