I find Kyle Pitts and Cole Kmet to be interesting tight ends. Both caught a ton of passes last year, but with only one touchdown between them. What are the chances of them again being lightly used in the red zone in 2022?
I don’t consider them to be interchangeable players. With Pitts, he was drafted with the hope he might develop into another Travis Kelce or Darren Waller. He had some big games as a rookie, finishing with 68 catches for 1,026 yards to go along with his one touchdown. In general, he seems to be on schedule, with a reasonable chance he’s a top-5 tight end in many of the upcoming seasons.
Kmet is a little different in that he’s been around for an extra season. And he’s not the same kind of freaky mismatch athlete. He finished with 60 catches for 612 yards last year, but with no touchdowns. Now the Bears have a new coaching staff and a new offense, with some chance he’ll have a bigger role but also a possibility they might use him less.
I don’t think Chicago has any interest in bringing back Jimmy Graham. That should or might free up Kmet to see a few more looks around the goal line. But I can’t say with confidence Kmet will be a big, featured part of their offense in that area of the field. (And can the Bears get Justin Fields going a little bit?)
With these kind of issues, I like to poke around with the historical numbers – see what’s happened to similar candidates. With this one, I was curious about how previous low-scoring tight ends have tended to perform. Specially, when a tight end catches 40-plus passes but scores fewer than 2 TDs, how many of those players come back the next year and start putting up touchdowns?
The numbers aren’t great. In the past 20 years, I see 22 tight ends having caught 40-plus passes but scored only 0-1 TDs. Only four of those guys came back the next year and scored more than 4 TDs. Jordan Reed, most notably, who zoomed up to 11 touchdowns for Washington in 2015. (Of the tight ends listed, Reed arguably is the most like Kyle Pitts – a mismatch receiving weapon rather than an in-line tight end.)
I’ve got the tight ends who scored more than 4 TDs tagged with black dots.
| ALLERGIC TO THE END ZONE | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Previous Yr |
| 2003 | Freddie Jones, Ariz. | 55 | 517 | 3 | 124.7 | 5 | 44-358-1 |
| 2003 | Stephen Alexander, S.D. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 89 | 45-510-1 |
| 2005 | Stephen Alexander, Den. | 21 | 170 | 1 | 44.0 | 36 | 41-377-1 |
| 2007 | • Jason Witten, Dall. | 96 | 1145 | 7 | 252.5 | 1 | 64-754-1 |
| 2008 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 58 | 561 | 2 | 126.1 | 11 | 46-421-1 |
| 2009 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 66 | 805 | 3 | 164.5 | 11 | 56-778-1 |
| 2009 | Jeremy Shockey, N.O. | 48 | 569 | 3 | 122.9 | 17 | 50-483-0 |
| 2009 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 29 | 332 | 2 | 74.2 | 28 | 83-849-1 |
| 2009 | Desmond Clark, Chi. | 19 | 145 | 2 | 45.5 | 42 | 41-367-1 |
| 2010 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 36 | 318 | 4 | 91.8 | 29 | 45-440-1 |
| 2011 | • Tony Scheffler, Det. | 26 | 347 | 6 | 99.2 | 25 | 45-378-1 |
| 2013 | • Brent Celek, Phil. | 32 | 502 | 6 | 118.2 | 20 | 57-684-1 |
| 2013 | Rob Housler, Ariz. | 39 | 454 | 1 | 90.4 | 28 | 45-417-0 |
| 2013 | Tony Scheffler, Det. | 7 | 82 | 0 | 15.2 | 69 | 42-504-1 |
| 2014 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 66 | 761 | 3 | 162.1 | 11 | 58-593-1 |
| 2015 | • Jordan Reed, Was. | 87 | 952 | 11 | 248.2 | 2 | 50-465-0 |
| 2016 | Jacob Tamme, Atl. | 22 | 210 | 3 | 61.0 | 39 | 59-657-1 |
| 2017 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 53 | 574 | 4 | 134.4 | 13 | 61-711-1 |
| 2017 | Will Tye, NYJ | 4 | 38 | 0 | 7.8 | 93 | 48-395-1 |
| 2021 | Gerald Everett, Sea. | 48 | 478 | 4 | 121.8 | 20 | 41-417-1 |
| 2021 | Evan Engram, NYG | 46 | 408 | 3 | 104.5 | 23 | 63-654-1 |
| 2021 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 11 | 81 | 0 | 19.1 | 73 | 40-349-1 |
| 2022 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 68-1026-1 |
| 2022 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 60-612-0 |
For those interested in the like numbers from the ‘90s, they appear below. Just one of the guys from that decade moving to over 4 TDs, and just two others reaching the 4 level. But with the league and the game changing dramatically, I don’t think these numbers are all that meaningful.
| TIGHT ENDS FROM THE '90s | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Previous Yr |
| 1994 | Ethan Horton, Was. | 15 | 157 | 3 | 48.7 | 28 | 43-467-1 |
| 1994 | Jay Novacek, Dall. | 47 | 475 | 2 | 106.5 | 8 | 44-445-1 |
| 1994 | Steve Jordan, Min. | 3 | 23 | 0 | 5.3 | 68 | 56-542-1 |
| 1995 | Tony McGee, Cin. | 55 | 754 | 4 | 154.4 | 5 | 40-492-1 |
| 1996 | • Frank Wycheck, Hou. | 53 | 511 | 6 | 140.4 | 5 | 40-471-1 |
| 1996 | Jackie Harris, T.B. | 30 | 349 | 1 | 72.9 | 16 | 62-751-1 |
| 1996 | Keith Cash, K.C. | 14 | 80 | 0 | 22.0 | 47 | 42-419-1 |
| 1997 | Pete Mitchell, Jac. | 35 | 380 | 4 | 97.0 | 14 | 52-575-1 |
| 1997 | Lonnie Johnson, Buff. | 41 | 340 | 2 | 87.6 | 17 | 46-457-0 |
| 1997 | Brian Kinchen, Balt. | 11 | 95 | 1 | 26.5 | 46 | 55-581-1 |
| 1998 | Ryan Wetnight, Chi. | 23 | 168 | 2 | 51.8 | 29 | 46-464-1 |
| 1998 | Eric Bjornson, Dall. | 15 | 218 | 1 | 49.5 | 32 | 47-442-0 |
| 1998 | Jamie Asher, Was. | 28 | 294 | 0 | 57.4 | 27 | 49-474-1 |
In general, I like both Pitts and Kmet, but I think both will be higher on my board in PPR formats rather than in scoring systems were touchdowns are at a premium.
—Ian Allan