Three of the coveted quarterback prospects finally came off the board in the third round, and I like them a lot more in that range than I did in the first. The expectations and time-lines look more palatable.
Malik Willis, most notably, with Tennessee trading up late in the third to grab him. Had he gone with a top-10 pick to the Panthers, Falcons or Seahawks, there would have been unrealistic expectations about him starting and making an impact. That was never going to happen; he’s not ready to play right now.
But Willis (pictured) is a mobile quarterback with a strong arm. He might develop into something at some point (especially with his mobility enhancing his value in fantasy leagues). I like the idea of him getting to sit and learn for now behind Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee’s style of offense could be a nice fit with his playing style. With Tannehill being a modest quarterback (particularly after losing A.J. Brown) I could see Willis moving into the starting lineup in 2023 – if he’s ready.
Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral are probably closer than Willis to becoming starters, but there’s no rush. Marcus Mariota will begin training camp as Atlanta’s first-string quarterback, while Sam Darnold is the No. 1 in Carolina. Those guys most likely will start in Week 1. Ridder and Corral will play when they’re ready. Those teams are in the same division, so we could possibly see Mariota and Darnold square off early in the season, with the two rookies in the lineup later in the year (two forgettable games that seem perfect for the Thursday night package).
I wouldn’t think any of these quarterbacks would generate too much interest in a dynasty draft. If a 12-team league, I don’t think any of them would one of the first two quarterbacks on a roster (that is, not one of the top 24 quarterbacks overall in a startup draft). But I would think all three would be picked if we’re going three deep.
In a dynasty draft, with teams thinking about what players might be doing in 2024, I would think some (maybe most) would for each of those three teams select the rookie before the holdover veteran. That’s how I would lean off the top of my head. I would pick Willis before Tannehill, Ridder before Mariota and Corral before Darnold. (Though in all three cases, I think the veterans will finish with better stats in 2022).
The hit rate on third-round isn’t particularly high, but invariably some good ones slip through the cracks. Most notably, Joe Montana and Russell Wilson were third-round picks. Two other third-rounders have started and won Super Bowl games (Jeff Hostetler, Nick Foles), and two others have started in Super Bowls (Neil O’Donnell, Chris Chandler).
Below see the run-down of all quarterbacks chosen in the third round since the move to the 16-game season in 1978. About 54 chosen (there are a couple of multiple-position and supplemental guys, and I might be missing one of two who simply never got on the field). Five of these guys at some point in their career had a top-5 fantasy season. That’s using standard scoring. And six others had a top-20 season. That’s not a ton of hits, but that’s about 20 percent of the total guys chosen.
Some of the other quarterbacks also had some value – a hot streak during a season or some good fill-in games. And some were at least starters, making them viable depth guys in SuperFlex leagues.
Below see the list of all quarterbacks chosen in the third round since 1978. With each player, I’m listing not his rookie season but the best seasons of his career. (Note that while Joe Montana threw only 17 TDs in 1982, that was a nine-game season – he was the 2nd-best fantasy quarterback that year.) Super Bowl quarterbacks tagged with black dots.
| QUARTERBACKS SELECTED IN THIRD ROUND | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2017 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3,983 | 34 | 586 | 3 | 415.8 | 1 |
| 1982 | • Joe Montana, S.F. | 2,613 | 17 | 118 | 1 | 216.5 | 2 |
| 1986 | Jay Schroeder, Was. | 4,109 | 22 | 47 | 1 | 304.2 | 3 |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 4,770 | 29 | 57 | 0 | 362.2 | 3 |
| 1993 | • Jeff Hostetler, Oak. | 3,242 | 14 | 202 | 5 | 268.3 | 5 |
| 1998 | • Chris Chandler, Atl. | 3,154 | 25 | 121 | 2 | 285.0 | 9 |
| 1993 | • Neil O'Donnell, Pitt. | 3,208 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 227.5 | 12 |
| 1988 | Bubby Brister, Pitt. | 2,634 | 11 | 209 | 6 | 232.6 | 13 |
| 1991 | Hugh Millen, N.E. | 3,073 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 204.9 | 13 |
| 1999 | Brian Griese, Den. | 3,032 | 14 | 138 | 2 | 233.4 | 15 |
| 2013 | • Nick Foles, Phil. | 2,891 | 27 | 221 | 3 | 296.7 | 17 |
| 1992 | Cody Carlson, Hou. | 1,710 | 9 | 77 | 1 | 135.2 | 21 |
| 2017 | Josh McCown, NYJ | 2,926 | 18 | 124 | 5 | 260.7 | 21 |
| 2008 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 2,699 | 11 | 117 | 3 | 210.7 | 22 |
| 2011 | Colt McCoy, Cle. | 2,733 | 14 | 212 | 0 | 214.4 | 22 |
| 2006 | Charlie Frye, Cle. | 2,454 | 10 | 215 | 3 | 202.2 | 23 |
| 1991 | Tom Tupa, Ariz. | 2,053 | 6 | 97 | 1 | 142.4 | 24 |
| 2017 | Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 3,098 | 13 | 260 | 4 | 256.9 | 24 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 2,608 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 210.1 | 25 |
| 1982 | Gifford Nielsen, Hou. | 1,005 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 78.0 | 27 |
| 1997 | Bobby Hoying, Phil. | 1,573 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 132.5 | 27 |
| 2013 | Terrelle Pryor, Oak. | 1,798 | 7 | 576 | 2 | 187.5 | 27 |
| 1996 | Frank Reich, NYJ | 2,205 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 177.4 | 28 |
| 2005 | Chris Simms, T.B. | 2,035 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 145.6 | 28 |
| 1990 | Anthony Dilweg, G.B. | 1,267 | 8 | 114 | 0 | 106.8 | 29 |
| 2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 2,664 | 16 | 44 | 0 | 205.6 | 29 |
| 2019 | Mason Rudolph, Pitt. | 1,765 | 13 | 42 | 0 | 144.5 | 30 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 1,380 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 96.8 | 32 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 1,430 | 4 | 136 | 3 | 119.1 | 33 |
| 1995 | Eric Zeier, Cle. | 864 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 69.2 | 34 |
| 2007 | Chris Redman, Atl. | 1,079 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 95.6 | 34 |
| 2015 | Ryan Mallett, 2TM | 1,336 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 96.3 | 36 |
| 1997 | Billy Joe Hobert, 2TM | 1,024 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 79.5 | 37 |
| 2006 | Andrew Walter, Oak. | 1,677 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 98.9 | 37 |
| 2014 | Charlie Whitehurst, Ten. | 1,326 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 104.3 | 37 |
| 2007 | Brodie Croyle, K.C. | 1,227 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 87.2 | 39 |
| 1999 | Stoney Case, Balt. | 988 | 3 | 141 | 3 | 93.5 | 40 |
| 1978 | Mark Miller, Cle. | 212 | 1 | 63 | 1 | 26.9 | 42 |
| 1992 | Peter Tom Willis, Chi. | 716 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 52.0 | 42 |
| 1989 | Erik Wilhelm, Cin. | 425 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 40.3 | 44 |
| 2000 | Brock Huard, Sea. | 540 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 41.9 | 45 |
| 2001 | Jonathan Quinn, Jac. | 361 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 26.3 | 47 |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 228 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 13.6 | 56 |
| 2003 | Dave Ragone, Hou. | 135 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 12.4 | 57 |
| 2017 | Sean Mannion, LAR | 185 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9.1 | 57 |
| 2008 | Kevin O'Connell, N.E. | 23 | 0 | -6 | 0 | .6 | 71 |
| 1984 | Rick McIvor, St.L. | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | .5 | 73 |
| 2021 | Kellen Mond, Min. | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .3 | 76 |
| 2021 | Davis Webb, Buff. | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | -.3 | 82 |
| 1986 | Robbie Bosco, G.B. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 1990 | Tommy Hodson, N.E. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2000 | Giovanni Carmazzi, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2005 | David Greene, Sea. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2015 | Garrett Grayson, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2022 | Malik Willis, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | Matt Corral, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan