Somebody in the comments section (Robert S, I think) was asking about rookie receivers, and whether any of them will post top-40 numbers. I think I can answer that one. Yes, definitely.
In nine of the last 10 years, multiple receivers have finished with top-40 overall stats. (That’s using PPR scoring). And in each of the last three years, at least three have been up in the top 30.
It will happen. I’m don’t think there will be a JaMarr Chase or Justin Jefferson guy who’s way up in the top 10, but there were be some viable receivers.
In the last 10 years, 26 wide receivers have finished with top-30 numbers – about 2-3 per years. Just 12 have made the top 20, so you’re getting down to about one guy per year.
As a I pointed out a few weeks back, a good number of these guys will be players selected outside the first round. Of the last 33 rookie receivers to finished with top-40 numbers, only 15 were picked in the first round. Over half were selected later, and I’ve got them tagged with black dots.
As I stack my board at receiver, there are no rookies in the top 30. I don’t think there’s one you can even consider. But there will be 1-4 up there at the end of the year, so it’s reasonable about 40 receivers into a draft, I think, to start throwing darts in that direction – Treylon Burks (pictured), Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Skyy Moore.
In the chart below, the numbers are a little funny. Yards include not only receiving yards but also rushing yards (almost all of these guys had a few). I thought it got clunky when try to list rushing with its own columns. And similarly with touchdowns: they’re mostly receiving touchdowns but include runs and returns.
The first number (Pk) shows the player’s draft position.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-40 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 81 | 1,476 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 6 | 104 | 1,018 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2021 | • Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 112 | 90 | 973 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 10 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 22 | 88 | 1,402 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 17 | 74 | 1,017 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2020 | • Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 49 | 62 | 889 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2020 | • Tee Higgins, Cin. | 33 | 67 | 936 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 25 | 60 | 825 | 7 | 184.5 | 35 |
| 2019 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. | 51 | 52 | 1,111 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2019 | • DK Metcalf, Sea. | 64 | 58 | 911 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2019 | • Terry McLaurin, Was. | 76 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2019 | • Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 36 | 57 | 961 | 6 | 191.1 | 31 |
| 2019 | • Darius Slayton, NYG | 171 | 48 | 740 | 8 | 170.0 | 37 |
| 2019 | • Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 66 | 59 | 721 | 6 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 26 | 64 | 848 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 24 | 55 | 960 | 2 | 163.0 | 36 |
| 2017 | • JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 62 | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 69 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2016 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. | 47 | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 165 | 61 | 860 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2016 | • Sterling Shepard, NYG | 40 | 65 | 714 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 4 | 72 | 1,067 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 12 | 91 | 1,340 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 28 | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2014 | • Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 42 | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 4 | 65 | 990 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2014 | • Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 63 | 84 | 754 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
| 2013 | • Keenan Allen, S.D. | 76 | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 29 | 45 | 627 | 9 | 161.7 | 38 |
| 2012 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 92 | 50 | 890 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | 64 | 888 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
—Ian Allan