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May 27, 2022

Seattle Seahawks

Still betting on a quarterback move

Having traded Russell Wilson away, the Seahawks are in rebuilding mode. They may not actually admit it, but this team isn't contending in the NFC West this season. The question is whether they'll at least try to win some games along the way. If they actually stand pat with what they have at quarterback, the answer is probably no.

At the moment, Seattle has a quarterback competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock. Pete Carroll says they had a higher rating on Lock coming out of college than any of this year's rookies, but that's pretty meaningless right now. Here in calendar year 2022, we've seen enough out of Lock to know he's not a viable NFL quarterback. And neither is Smith.

Over the last 10 years, 67 quarterbacks have started at least 20 games in the NFL. Just 19 of those players have completed 60 percent or fewer of their passes. Here are the 19, a group that of course includes both Lock and Smith. Of the other 17 quarterbacks, the potential Week 1 starters are Jacoby Brissett (presuming a suspension of some sort for Deshaun Watson) and Sam Darnold. Cleveland and Carolina aren't excited about that, either.

QBS COMPLETING UNDER 60 PERCENT, LAST 10 YEARS (20-PLUS STARTS)
PlayerGSCmpAttCmp%YdsTDIntRate
Jacoby Brissett37727120860.27742361783.0
Mike Glennon31689114760.17025473578.6
Cam Newton1282372395759.92833117310685.3
Colin Kaepernick581008168759.812236723088.9
Brock Osweiler30697116559.87418373178.0
Sam Darnold49972162559.810624545276.9
Blake Bortles731562263459.3176491037580.6
Drew Lock2142171059.34740252079.3
Brian Hoyer39870146959.210345523482.9
Trevor Siemian29606102958.96843412781.2
Geno Smith34592100658.86917343775.7
Mark Sanchez2653290658.76148313873.2
Matt Cassel2753691658.55809283770.6
Chad Henne2355494858.46176292676.7
Blaine Gabbert34648111258.37059383675.0
Jake Locker2337464358.24425232276.9
Brandon Weeden2555996557.96462313076.0
Michael Vick2238567956.74552221678.2
Josh Freeman2138473352.44975302275.2

Pete Carroll can say what he wants, but I'm going to stick to the belief that Seattle is playing a waiting game, hoping that either Baker Mayfield or perhaps Jimmy Garoppolo ultimately gets released, and can be signed for cheap. I don't think the aging Carroll actually wants to helm a 5-12 (at best) season with Smith or Lock, and I know none of us are hoping to select any Seattle skill guys with those quarterbacks slinging passes around.

We'll see, but I'm giving Lock and Smith each about 30 percent chance to start in Week 1 for Seattle. Just as likely, if not more, that their starting quarterback isn't currently on the roster.

--Andy Richardson

Drew Lock Geno Smith

15 Reader Comments:

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-05-27T16:02:32Z
The Browns and the 49ers know they have nothing to gain by cutting either Mayfield or Garoppolo now. The Seahawks have nothing to gain by leaking any interest in anyone other than Lock or Smith. So it's kind of a weird standoff right now. We'll know if Seattle is serious about Lock or Smith if either Lockett or Metcalf gets shipped out. I don't think either of those guys would want to hang around to catch passes from those guys, but both (especially Metcalf) could net a nice return in trade.

Cody Hager

Portland, OR
2022-05-27T16:17:08Z
Drew Lock has the best arm talent of the 4 mentioned QBs. At least in theory, you can coach Lock to make better decisions with the football and be more accurate. Odds are stacked against that happening though. Josh Allen is an outlier, not the norm.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2022-05-27T16:20:22Z
I think the clock will move a little quicker on Mayfield. I think the Browns will have to do something before training camp. With Garoppolo, there's the fact he's coming off surgery, and also that the 49ers have a competitive roster -- maybe they actually want to see Lance more this preseason before trading him.

I don't really think Seattle is going to wind up with Jimmy G, but with Pete Carroll being 71 I feel like they've got to do something to upgrade between now and the start of the season.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-05-27T16:26:17Z
Carolina tried to trade for Mayfield during the draft. Talks broke down over money. Supposedly Panthers wanted Cleveland to pay about $13 or $14 million of his $18.9 million salary (which is guaranteed). That actually seems pretty reasonable to me. That would put Browns $5 million ahead of where they are now. Whether Panthers still have interest now that they have Matt Corral and the OTAs are gone, I have no idea. Whether Seahawks seem him as an upgrade over their two castoff 2nd-rounders, I have no idea. If Mayfield is interested in joining a team sooner rather than later, he could help things along by waiving some of that money. That is, he's got $18.9 million today, with the potential the Browns waive him in late August or leave him on the roster or whatever. He would agree to move that down to $16 million if the Browns would cut him. That seems like a win-win.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-05-27T16:27:25Z
49ers can released Jimmy G in late August. That gives them the ability to see Trey Lance some and where he's at. But having that Jimmy G money on the books right now makes it harder sign Deebo to an extension.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2022-05-27T17:41:04Z
The problem with Seattle is accommodating the aging Pete Carroll. Acquiring Mayfield or Garoppolo is treading water and trying to stay competitive though nobody in the football world believes either will bring them a Super Bowl. For me, the real answer is to ship off all the talent, yes Metcalf and others, and have your 1-16 season and draft one of the two franchise quarterbacks and still have a bounty of picks

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2022-05-27T17:51:03Z
Metcalf is 24 years old. Trading him would make about as much sense as trading away A.J. Brown. Wait a minute....

Cody Hager

Portland, OR
2022-05-27T18:11:30Z
Let me rephrase that statement with a Devil's advocate position. Signing a player to a 4 year, 100 million dollar contract with a history of lower body injuries instead of drafting a comparable player on a rookie deal makes as much sense as.....wait a minute

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-05-27T19:16:17Z
It appears to me that the worm has turned, and more players of note have gained more say-so. Brown wanted to be paid, and it looks like Tennessee didn't want to meet his demands. So he got moved and paid. Deebo Samuel went the social media route, and everybody considered him as good as gone except Lynch; it's still a possibility, however unlikely. Metcalf wants his money too, and it seems unlikely that he'll get a big payday resulting from a Lock-Metcalf hookup. So he might be just a holdout away from being gone.

James Costello

Portland, ME
2022-05-27T19:19:30Z
I agree Andy about Metcalf. But you don’t want his talent to win a couple of extra games and cost you the quarterback.

Cody Hager

Portland, OR
2022-05-27T19:23:27Z
Absolutely. Poor QB play can effect future earnings. For example, it's to no surprise that Jordan Addison transferred from Pitt to USC once Kenny Pickett left.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA
2022-05-27T19:47:19Z
It would be crazy to trade Metcalf with his current, team-friendly contract. Lockett, I'm not so sure about, but he's been a Seahawk for 7 years now, and will be 30 in September, so I assume he's comfortable staying in Seattle, with or without Wilson throwing him the ball. I, for one, don't see any upside to signing Jimmy G. or Baker or Kaepernick - they'd be a stopgap until the Seahawks could draft a franchise QB. I believe they should hold onto their best players and give Lock a chance. The guy has only 21 starts and was OK in Denver. I think he has enough pedigree and credibility that you give him a legitimate shot in 2022. If he doesn't perform better than Geno, or just can't overcome his history of turnovers and lesser completion rates, then you go into next year's Draft looking for your guy. I think Carroll and Schneider also believe in Lock, rather than throwing darts and $$ and drafting a first-round QB. If Carroll could go out with a resurrected Lock and a competitive, playoff-worthy team, that should be a good enough end to his legacy.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2022-05-27T20:56:00Z
I understand it can be difficult (and perhaps unwise, we'll see) to pay the current exorbitant prices for star players. But Kansas City trading Tyreek and Green Bay doing the same with Davante can be at least defended as trading away guys who have played their best football, and perhaps a decline would be hitting early on in those big-money contracts.

With guys like A.J. Brown and Metcalf, at just 24 years old, they're just approaching their prime. Hitting on draft picks like that and getting the heart of their careers for your team is the goal. If you trade them for picks, the best-case scenario is that you use one of those picks to draft a player as good as the one you just traded away, and he's much cheaper for the next 3 years. But the more realistic likelihood is the player you select isn't as good -- and sometimes (1 in 3? more often?) he's a complete bust. So to save money (and yes, it's a LOT OF MONEY) you trade away one of your team's best assets -- one of the reasons you're contending for what everyone's goal is -- there's a good chance you're simply not as good.

So I guess my argument is, if you have a young star just entering his prime on your roster, you figure out a way to keep him. Because the only thing you do by trading him away is save money; seldom do you make the team better or the championship prospects more likely.

Stuff like this is more visible perhaps with quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins won't be going to the Hall of Fame or anything, but he was (perhaps) a top-10 or 12 quarterback who Washington let leave. Since that time, how much money, draft picks, and resources have they spent trying to replace him? How much more will they end up spending before one day uncovering a comparable quarterback and being a realistic playoff contender again? (I realize of course the Vikings haven't won anything either.) But my basic point: if you don't retain young quality players, over money, you might wind up spending quite a lot (money, picks) trying to replace them over the next few years.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-05-28T00:54:52Z
Although it may  not sound  like it from my earlier posts, I'm with Andy. Surreptitiously drafting/trading/drafting is just a dog chasing its tail. I posted what seems to be happening around the league, not what I'd do. I miss the pre-cap days when more players played out their careers in one place because owners were only limited by what they deemed their limit, not something superimposed to equalize everything.

Cliff Neville

Somerset, TX
2022-05-28T21:43:39Z
i'm sure the cap was meant more to keep player pay down, but at least it also had the effect that we don't have real madrid playing in the super bowl every other year. oh, but wait, the pats...
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