Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Atlanta Falcons

Falcons add Robinson to run-heavy offense

I was surprised to see the Falcons select Bijan Robinson. I didn’t see running back as a big need for them, with Tyler Allgeier rushing for 1,035 yards, a team record for a rookie. They’ve also gotten some good production out of Cordarrelle Patterson the last two years.

One of Robinson’s big selling points is his pass-catching ability. He’s got really good hands. But the Falcons haven’t passed much to their running backs and haven’t thrown it much in general. While this will presumably change some in the future, they don’t like a team that will really tap into that aspect of Robinson’s game.

I’m not suggesting Robinson can’t make Atlanta’s offense better, but I thought they would have gotten more value by looking at other positions.

With this pick, however, I think we can include the Falcons as decent candidates to lead the league in rushing. They ranked 3rd in rushing last year, averaging 160 yards per game. They got more rushing yards from their running backs than any other team (130 per game).

Atlanta should be running the ball a bunch. That much we can say with relative certainty. They ran the ball on 55 percent of their plays last year, 2nd-most in the league, and 9th-most by any team in the 32-team era.

Out of curiosity, I pulled up all past offenses (since 2002) that have run the ball on over half of their offensive downs. I then looked at how they performed in their next season. That is, when a team runs the ball a ton, can we in general count on it to do something similar the next season?

The 59 offenses in question appear below. Using standard scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards) 33 of them finished with top-10 rushing numbers the next season. Just over half, which is a little lower than I expected. 43 of them at least finished with above-average rushing production, while 16 finished with below-average rushing stats (as a team). So almost a 3-1 ratio in terms of above- versus below-average rushing.

I think we’re going to see a run-havy offense, with Robinson and Allgeier (pictured) getting most of the carries, but Patterson also chipping in.

OFFENSES RUSHING MORE THAN PASSING
YearTeamPrevPctYardsTDRPointsRk
2005Pittsburgh61.1%57.2%2,22321348.35
2010NY Jets58.9%49.1%2,37414321.47
2006Pittsburgh57.2%45.1%1,99216295.210
2023Chicago56.2%?????
2020Baltimore56.0%55.9%3,07124451.11
2009Baltimore56.0%46.2%2,20022352.05
2021Baltimore55.9%43.6%2,47918355.96
2009Atlanta55.4%43.0%1,87615277.612
2023Atlanta55.3%?????
2013Seattle55.0%52.3%2,18814302.88
2004Baltimore54.7%49.5%2,06311272.312
2005Atlanta54.1%52.0%2,54617356.64
2009Carolina53.7%51.3%2,49818357.83
2007Atlanta53.7%39.0%1,5207194.029
2012Denver53.7%44.1%1,83212255.217
2005NY Jets52.9%42.3%1,32810192.829
2019Seattle52.8%46.0%2,20015310.07
2005San Diego52.7%45.5%2,07222339.26
2006Denver52.6%50.2%2,15212287.213
2014San Francisco52.5%46.6%2,17610277.610
2003Miami52.5%50.3%1,81714265.716
2008Tennessee52.4%52.2%2,19924363.94
2014Seattle52.3%51.4%2,76220396.21
2011Kansas City52.3%47.7%1,8935219.324
2013Washington52.2%40.9%2,16414300.49
2009Tennessee52.2%50.4%2,59219373.22
2012Houston52.2%46.6%2,12319326.37
2006Chicago52.1%48.3%1,91814275.816
2006Atlanta52.0%53.7%2,9399347.93
2015Houston51.9%41.9%1,7317215.121
2007Jacksonville51.9%51.1%2,39118347.12
2004Denver51.9%49.9%2,33313311.37
2004Carolina51.8%42.6%1,58210218.226
2015Seattle51.4%48.3%2,26810286.89
2007San Diego51.4%49.5%2,03919317.93
2010Carolina51.3%44.5%1,8467226.620
2010Cleveland51.3%44.6%1,64613242.616
2021New England51.3%46.5%2,15124359.15
2008Minnesota51.2%51.2%2,33215323.27
2009Minnesota51.2%44.3%1,91819305.810
2022Philadelphia51.2%48.4%2,50932442.91
2008Pittsburgh51.1%45.3%1,69016265.016
2007Kansas City51.1%38.3%1,2486160.832
2008Jacksonville51.1%42.4%1,77417279.414
2006Seattle50.9%46.3%1,9238240.322
2008Oakland50.8%49.9%1,9879252.720
2013San Francisco50.8%52.5%2,20118328.13
2004Green Bay50.8%41.9%1,9089244.819
2005New England50.6%42.6%1,51216247.217
2006Washington50.6%50.1%2,21613299.68
2021Tennessee50.5%48.6%2,40423378.43
2006Carolina50.5%42.6%1,6597207.927
2010Tennessee50.4%44.8%1,72713250.714
2003Atlanta50.4%46.8%1,94917296.910
2004Miami50.3%37.6%1,33910193.931
2011Jacksonville50.2%48.8%1,9709251.019
2007Denver50.2%44.0%1,95710255.715
2012San Francisco50.2%50.8%2,49117351.15
2015Dallas50.1%42.1%1,8908237.017
2016Buffalo50.1%48.6%2,63029437.01
2007Washington50.1%47.3%1,87115277.19
2023Baltimore50.0%?????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index