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Factoid

Late-round running backs

Will 2023 class produce stars?

In March and April, we heard a lot about what was supposedly a deep draft class for running backs. Different people might have different views as to what that means, but what actually happened was that teams didn't take many players at the position early. Most of them went later.

While two running backs were selected in the first round, which is a rarity these days, there were only 8 total selected in the first four rounds. Compare that to the past five years, when there were 58 selected in the first four rounds -- an average of nearly 12 per year. The perceived depth of this year's class seemed to result in a lot of players going later -- more running backs were selected in the fifth through seventh rounds (10) than the first four (8).

So how many of these players might be significant fantasy backs? The recent history suggests relatively few.

First, there actually weren't any more running backs selected later than normal. In the last decade, there have been 103 running backs drafted in the fifth through seventh rounds -- about 10 per year, same as in 2023.

Of those 103, exactly 20 have had a top-40 fantasy season (PPR) at some point in their careers (so far). Just eight have had a top-20 season. So 1 in 10 have had a season where they were definitely a regular fantasy starter; 1 in 5 should definitely be rostered in typical leagues.

But the good news is it does happen, and the ones who have hit have worked out very well. Two guys are the gold standard, both from the 2017 draft class: Packers 5th-rounder Aaron Jones, and Seahawks 7th-rounder Chris Carson. Each of those guys had 3 or more top-2o fantasy seasons. Another fifth, Jordan Howard (2016), had two such seasons.

Table shows all the top-40 seasons from late-round running backs drafted in the last 10 years. Guys who did it last year (two rookies and two veterans) are in bold.

TOP-40 FANTASY SEASONS (PPR), RBS DRAFTED 5TH-7TH, 2013-
RdDrYearPlayerRunNoRecTDRk
520172019Aaron Jones, G.B.10844947432
520172020Aaron Jones, G.B.11044735525
520172022Aaron Jones, G.B.11215939557
520162016Jordan Howard, Chi.131329298210
520172021Aaron Jones, G.B.79952391211
520152016Jay Ajayi, Mia.127227151411
720172019Chris Carson, Sea.123037266712
720172018Chris Carson, Sea.115120163315
520162017Jordan Howard, Chi.112223125115
620132016Spencer Ware, K.C.92133447416
520162017Alex Collins, Balt.97323187419
620132014Andre Ellington, Ariz.66046395219
620132015Theo Riddick, Det.13380697119
720172020Chris Carson, Sea.68137287120
520162018Jordan Howard, Chi.93520145221
520132013Zac Stacy, St.L.97326141121
520172018Aaron Jones, G.B.72826206124
720192021Myles Gaskin, Mia.61249234225
720192020Myles Gaskin, Mia.58441388225
620132016Theo Riddick, Det.35753371025
620212021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.96319137026
620132017Theo Riddick, Det.28653444126
620132013Andre Ellington, Ariz.65239371126
520142017Chris Thompson, Was.29439510327
520142016Chris Thompson, Was.35649349228
520222022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.103516139030
620132022Latavius Murray, 2TM76027132132
520152017Jay Ajayi, 2TM87324158335
720222022Isiah Pacheco, K.C.83013130437
520152015Karlos Williams, Buff.5171196238
520132014Denard Robinson, Jac.58223124238
620132017Rex Burkhead, N.E.26430254139
520212021Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.29133253240
520132016Mike Gillislee, Buff.577950140

A fifth (8) of those top-4o backs did it in their rookie seasons. That includes two last year (Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco) and two in 2021 (Elijah Mitchell and Kenneth Gainwell). So reasonable to think a couple of this year's late rounders will be viable in fantasy leagues.

Looking at this year's late-rounders, three that come to mind as being possible late-round, ultra-deep league fliers are Cincinnati's Chase Brown (5th), the Giants' Eric Gray (6th, pictured) and Washington's Chris Rodriguez (6th). In the first two cases, the veteran starters (Mixon, Barkley) have contract or off-field situations that may need to be worked out, and empty depth charts behind them. Rodriguez likely fell in the draft due to off-field stuff (a DUI arrest), while Washington's incumbents (Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson) didn't exactly put a death grip on the starting job last season.

I'll go with Gray as the most intriguing, simply because Barkley has said he won't play on the franchise tag, so the sides not working things out is possible. And even if they do come to terms, these guys tend to get hurt. Gray has a three-down skill set; at Oklahoma last year he ran for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns and also caught 33 passes for 229 yards more. If I were drafting today, I'd give him a strong chance to be the No. 2 for the Giants.

--Andy Richardson

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