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Factoid

Speed kills

Gibbs, Robinson faster than typical rookie prospects

I am a fan of the 40. Especially the electronically-timed version at the combine. It allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of players from different years.

When looking at on-field action, there are always issues of who’s getting helped and hurt by schemes and level of competition. You get a powerhouse team like Alabama or Georgia, and there are games that any random Joe would look good running through big holes. When there’s a long touchdown against Eastern Michigan, you have to wonder if the guys in the secondary can run.

While the 40 is just one small piece of the puzzle, all of the variables are controlled, with the players running on the same field and with the same accurate clocks.

The two first-round running backs this year turned in noteworthy times. Jahmyr Gibbs (pictured) ran 4.36, and that’s smoking fast – the best by any running back selected in the first or second round in 11 years. And Gibbs’ speed can be seen on his highlight clips, with him consistently running away from people. He’s going to score some long touchdowns for the Lions.

With Bijan Robinson, he’s a tenth slower, running 4.46, and you can see the difference on the field. I watched all of his carries from three games a few weeks ago, and there were plays where he was on the edge that I thought the specialness didn’t quite kick in. In particular a goal-line carry against Iowa State, where if he were a half step faster, it would have been a touchdown rather than him getting pushed out of bounds at the 1.

Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall last year both ran under 4.40. They’re more like Gibbs than Robinson. Walker had a long touchdown against the Chargers last year where he reached 22.1 mph, the fastest time by a running back all year. And with Hall being faster than Robinson and having put up comparable college stats, I think he’ll be a better runner at the NFL level (Hall looked really good before tearing his ACL last year).

But with the 40 times in front of me, I am reminded that while Robinson isn’t as fast as Gibbs, Walker or Hall, that 4.46 is still an impressive time. In last 10 years, 33 running backs selected in the first two round have run the 40 at the combine. Only six of those backs ran faster than Robinson.

D’Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook. Those guys all ran slightly slower than Robinson. He’s not a true burner, but I expect he’ll break some longer runs for the Falcons.

RUNNING BACK 40 TIMES
YearPkPlayerHtWtTime
202312Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.5.091994.36
202241Kenneth Walker, Sea.5.092114.38
202236Breece Hall, NYJ5.112174.39
202041Jonathan Taylor, Ind.5.102264.39
20182Saquon Barkley, NYG6.002334.40
202263James Cook, Buff.5.111994.42
201827Rashaad Penny, Sea.5.112204.46
20238Bijan Robinson, Atl.5.112154.46
202052Cam Akers, LAR5.102174.47
20164Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.6.002254.47
202035D'Andre Swift, Det.5.082124.48
20178Christian McCaffrey, Car.5.112024.48
201953Miles Sanders, Phil.5.112114.49
201859Derrius Guice, Wash.5.112184.49
201741Dalvin Cook, Minn.5.112134.49
201454Bishop Sankey, Tenn.5.092094.49
20174Leonard Fournette, Jac.6.012304.51
201835Nick Chubb, Clev.5.102254.52
201515Melvin Gordon, S.D.6.012154.52
202062AJ Dillon, G.B.6.002474.53
201337Giovani Bernard, Cin.5.092084.53
201831Sony Michel, N.E.5.112144.54
201645Derrick Henry, Tenn.6.022474.54
201362Christine Michael, Sea.5.102214.54
201361Eddie Lacy, G.B.5.112304.55
202032Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.5.072074.60
201554Ameer Abdullah, Det.5.092054.60
201348LeVeon Bell, Pitt.6.012304.60
201536T.J. Yeldon, Jac.6.012264.61
201838Ronald Jones, T.B.6.002004.66
201455Jeremy Hill, Cin.6.012334.66
201457Carlos Hyde, S.F.6.002304.66
201358Montee Ball, Den.5.102154.66

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index