Factoid

May 31, 2023

First-round wideouts

Odds longer for Addison than earlier picks

Minnesota first-rounder Jordan Addison is missing time at offseason training activities due to an undisclosed minor injury. This is not a big deal; it's still May, for a few more hours. But it seems as good a time as any to point out that a rookie impact can't be taken for granted.

We've seen a lot of rookie wideouts put up big numbers lately, especially Addison's Vikings teammate, Justin Jefferson. But the earlier the pick the more likely he's an immediate standout, and that's true even within the first round.

Since 2000, there have been 45 wide receivers drafted in the first 15 picks of the first round. Of those 45, about a quarter (11) have put up top 25 numbers (PPR) in their rookie seasons. Slightly under half (20) have ranked in the top 40 at their position. That includes three guys drafted in the top 15 last season: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave.

ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 15, 2000-PRESENT
Pk	Year	Player	Tgt	No	Rec	Avg	TD	PPR	Rk
5	2021	JaMarr Chase, Cin.	128	81	1455	18.0	13	306.6	5
12	2014	Odell Beckham, NYG	130	91	1305	14.3	12	297.0	8
6	2021	Jaylen Waddle, Mia.	140	104	1015	9.8	7	247.8	12
7	2014	Mike Evans, T.B.	122	68	1051	15.5	12	245.1	13
15	2004	Michael Clayton, T.B.	122	80	1193	14.9	7	244.3	14
4	2011	A.J. Green, Cin.	115	65	1057	16.3	7	218.0	17
4	2015	Amari Cooper, Oak.	130	72	1070	14.9	6	214.7	21
6	2011	Julio Jones, Atl.	95	54	959	17.8	8	203.5	21
10	2022	Garrett Wilson, NYJ	147	83	1103	13.3	4	217.7	21
3	2003	Andre Johnson, Hou.	119	66	976	14.8	4	186.6	22
11	2022	Chris Olave, N.O.	119	72	1042	14.5	4	202.2	24
4	2014	Sammy Watkins, Buff.	128	65	982	15.1	6	200.0	27
8	2022	Drake London, Atl.	117	72	866	12.0	4	184.6	28
5	2012	Justin Blackmon, Jac.	132	64	865	13.5	5	184.8	29
13	2004	Lee Evans, Buff.	74	48	843	17.6	9	194.8	29
4	2000	Peter Warrick, Cin.	126	51	592	11.6	7	167.0	30
10	2021	DeVonta Smith, Phil.	104	64	916	14.3	5	187.6	30
3	2004	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	115	58	780	13.5	8	185.4	31
7	2004	Roy Williams, Det.	118	54	817	15.1	8	183.8	32
2	2007	Calvin Johnson, Det.	93	48	756	15.8	5	158.8	38
15	2001	Rod Gardner, Was.	101	46	741	16.1	4	145.7	43
15	2020	Jerry Jeudy, Den.	113	52	856	16.5	3	157.6	45
13	2002	Donte Stallworth, N.O.	69	42	594	14.1	8	149.6	50
8	2013	Tavon Austin, St.L.	69	40	418	10.5	6	132.9	53
9	2001	Koren Robinson, Sea.	78	39	536	13.7	1	99.9	60
10	2009	Michael Crabtree, S.F.	86	48	625	13.0	2	122.5	60
8	2001	David Terrell, Chi.	63	34	415	12.2	4	99.5	61
13	2012	Michael Floyd, Ariz.	86	45	562	12.5	2	113.2	65
3	2005	Braylon Edwards, Cle.	59	32	512	16.0	3	101.2	67
10	2000	Travis Taylor, Balt.	54	28	276	9.9	3	74.7	72
9	2007	Ted Ginn, Mia.	71	34	420	12.4	3	94.3	74
14	2015	DeVante Parker, Mia.	50	26	494	19.0	3	93.4	78
7	2005	Troy Williamson, Min.	52	24	372	15.5	2	76.0	82
15	2016	Corey Coleman, Cle.	73	33	413	12.5	3	93.3	83
5	2017	Corey Davis, Ten.	65	34	375	11.0	0	71.5	85
8	2000	Plaxico Burress, Pitt.	65	22	273	12.4	0	49.3	86
2	2003	Charles Rogers, Det.	52	22	243	11.1	3	66.0	88
10	2005	Mike Williams (USC), Det.	57	29	350	12.1	1	70.0	88
12	2020	Henry Ruggs, L.V.	43	26	452	17.4	2	88.1	89
9	2004	Reggie Williams, Jac.	54	27	268	9.9	1	63.8	93
7	2009	Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.	40	9	124	13.8	1	29.3	118
7	2017	Mike Williams (Clemson), LAC	23	11	95	8.6	0	20.5	139
12	2022	Jameson Williams, Det.	9	1	41	41.0	1	15.1	158
9	2017	John Ross, Cin.	2	0	0	0.0	0	1.2	199
7	2015	Kevin White, Chi.	0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	999

The odds get a little longer outside the top 15 picks. There have been about the same number of wide receivers (48) drafted in the latter half of the first round since 2000. Of those 48, just half as many (6) have ranked in the top 25, and just over half as many (12) have finished in the top 40.

ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED PICKS 16-32, 2000-PRESENT
Pk	Year	Player	Tgt	No	Rec	Avg	TD	PPR	Rk
22	2020	Justin Jefferson, Min.	125	88	1400	15.9	7	274.2	6
28	2014	Kelvin Benjamin, Car.	145	73	1008	13.8	9	227.8	16
26	2018	Calvin Ridley, Atl.	92	64	821	12.8	10	208.8	20
17	2020	CeeDee Lamb, Dall.	111	74	935	12.6	7	219.7	22
23	2007	Dwayne Bowe, K.C.	116	70	995	14.2	5	199.5	22
22	2009	Percy Harvin, Min.	91	60	790	13.2	8	200.5	23
29	2009	Hakeem Nicks, NYG	74	47	790	16.8	6	162.8	33
19	2009	Jeremy Maclin, Phil.	91	56	773	13.8	4	156.6	35
25	2020	Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.	96	60	748	12.5	7	184.5	35
24	2018	DJ Moore, Car.	82	55	788	14.3	2	163.0	36
25	2006	Santonio Holmes, Pitt.	86	49	824	16.8	3	150.7	38
29	2013	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.	77	45	469	10.4	9	161.7	38
24	2010	Dez Bryant, Dall.	73	45	561	12.5	8	149.1	42
20	2012	Kendall Wright, Ten.	104	64	626	9.8	4	151.0	45
25	2019	Marquise Brown, Balt.	71	46	584	12.7	7	146.4	46
21	2000	Sylvester Morris, K.C.	105	48	678	14.1	3	135.4	49
27	2013	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.	91	52	802	15.4	2	144.2	49
16	2022	Jahan Dotson, Was.	61	35	523	14.9	7	130.6	51
30	2009	Kenny Britt, Ten.	75	42	701	16.7	3	130.1	52
21	2005	Matt Jones, Jac.	69	36	432	12.0	5	114.9	53
22	2005	Mark Clayton, Balt.	87	44	471	10.7	3	112.4	55
20	2014	Brandin Cooks, N.O.	69	53	550	10.4	4	139.3	56
21	2016	Will Fuller, Hou.	92	47	635	13.5	3	128.2	61
32	2007	Anthony Gonzalez, Ind.	51	37	576	15.6	3	112.6	66
19	2002	Ashley Lelie, Den.	53	35	525	15.0	2	103.5	69
27	2021	Rashod Bateman, Balt.	68	46	515	11.2	1	103.5	70
27	2005	Roddy White, Atl.	69	29	446	15.4	3	92.8	71
18	2022	Treylon Burks, Ten.	54	33	444	13.5	2	94.1	78
17	2003	Bryant Johnson, Ariz.	77	35	438	12.5	1	84.8	82
30	2001	Reggie Wayne, Ind.	49	27	345	12.8	0	61.5	86
20	2021	Kadarius Toney, NYG	57	39	420	10.8	0	82.6	89
25	2001	Freddie Mitchell, Phil.	43	21	283	13.5	1	54.9	89
21	2020	Jalen Reagor, Phil.	54	31	396	12.8	2	87.2	91
20	2002	Javon Walker, G.B.	50	23	319	13.9	1	62.0	95
22	2010	Demaryius Thomas, Den.	39	22	283	12.9	2	62.4	95
20	2015	Nelson Agholor, Phil.	44	23	283	12.3	1	57.3	101
29	2000	R. Jay Soward, Jac.	34	14	154	11.0	1	38.2	102
30	2007	Craig Davis, S.D.	34	20	188	9.4	1	45.7	106
26	2011	Jonathan Baldwin, K.C.	52	21	254	12.1	1	52.4	108
29	2015	Phillip Dorsett, Ind.	39	18	225	12.5	1	48.2	110
31	2004	Rashaun Woods, S.F.	23	7	160	22.9	1	29.0	122
32	2019	N'Keal Harry, N.E.	24	12	105	8.8	2	39.4	124
29	2004	Michael Jenkins, Atl.	20	7	119	17.0	0	19.1	136
16	2001	Santana Moss, NYJ	17	2	40	20.0	0	5.4	153
22	2016	Josh Doctson, Was.	6	2	66	33.0	0	8.6	170
23	2016	Laquon Treadwell, Min.	3	1	15	15.0	0	2.5	188
26	2015	Breshad Perriman, Balt.	0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	999
30	2012	A.J. Jenkins, S.F.	1	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	999
20	2023	Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
21	2023	Quentin Johnston, LAC	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
22	2023	Zay Flowers, Bal.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
23	2023	Jordan Addison, Min.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

Broadly speaking, it's about half as likely that players selected where Addison (and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers) were are viable fantasy starters as rookies than if they'd been selected where Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Drake London were a year ago.

Two other thoughts that come to mind. The first is that three of those six top-25 performers from the second half of the round have done it in the last five years. That includes Addison's teammate, Jefferson. So it seems fair to say that's it's more likely today than it was in 2005, 2010 or 2015.

The second is that in scanning the two tables, it's not a great track record for those first-rounders who didn't do much in their first seasons. From the first table, of the 25 who didn't put up top-40 numbers as rookies, I see a few guys who had good seasons or two (DeVante Parker, Braylon Edwards, Chargers' Mike Williams) but no superstars (jury still out on Jerry Jeudy). From the second table, I see more stars (Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss), but the percentages remain bad -- most of those guys who didn't do much as rookies didn't do much in their careers. So that's what guys like Jameson Williams, Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks are up against.

In general, will be nice if these rookies put up good numbers as rookies. Seems to increase the odds of them going to have noteworthy careers. Certainly, Smith-Njigba runs the risk of being overshadowed by a couple of great veterans in Seattle (as does Johnston with the Chargers, and Flowers with Baltimore), and Addison needs to beat out K.J. Osborn, which might not happen immediately. But chances of success are a little better if they emerge in their rookie seasons.

--Andy Richardson

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