Minnesota first-rounder Jordan Addison is missing time at offseason training activities due to an undisclosed minor injury. This is not a big deal; it's still May, for a few more hours. But it seems as good a time as any to point out that a rookie impact can't be taken for granted.

We've seen a lot of rookie wideouts put up big numbers lately, especially Addison's Vikings teammate, Justin Jefferson. But the earlier the pick the more likely he's an immediate standout, and that's true even within the first round.

Since 2000, there have been 45 wide receivers drafted in the first 15 picks of the first round. Of those 45, about a quarter (11) have put up top 25 numbers (PPR) in their rookie seasons. Slightly under half (20) have ranked in the top 40 at their position. That includes three guys drafted in the top 15 last season: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave.

ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 15, 2000-PRESENT
PkYearPlayerTgtNoRecAvgTDPPRRk
52021JaMarr Chase, Cin.12881145518.013306.65
122014Odell Beckham, NYG13091130514.312297.08
62021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.14010410159.87247.812
72014Mike Evans, T.B.12268105115.512245.113
152004Michael Clayton, T.B.12280119314.97244.314
42011A.J. Green, Cin.11565105716.37218.017
42015Amari Cooper, Oak.13072107014.96214.721
62011Julio Jones, Atl.955495917.88203.521
102022Garrett Wilson, NYJ14783110313.34217.721
32003Andre Johnson, Hou.1196697614.84186.622
112022Chris Olave, N.O.11972104214.54202.224
42014Sammy Watkins, Buff.1286598215.16200.027
82022Drake London, Atl.1177286612.04184.628
52012Justin Blackmon, Jac.1326486513.55184.829
132004Lee Evans, Buff.744884317.69194.829
42000Peter Warrick, Cin.1265159211.67167.030
102021DeVonta Smith, Phil.1046491614.35187.630
32004Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.1155878013.58185.431
72004Roy Williams, Det.1185481715.18183.832
22007Calvin Johnson, Det.934875615.85158.838
152001Rod Gardner, Was.1014674116.14145.743
152020Jerry Jeudy, Den.1135285616.53157.645
132002Donte Stallworth, N.O.694259414.18149.650
82013Tavon Austin, St.L.694041810.56132.953
92001Koren Robinson, Sea.783953613.7199.960
102009Michael Crabtree, S.F.864862513.02122.560
82001David Terrell, Chi.633441512.2499.561
132012Michael Floyd, Ariz.864556212.52113.265
32005Braylon Edwards, Cle.593251216.03101.267
102000Travis Taylor, Balt.54282769.9374.772
92007Ted Ginn, Mia.713442012.4394.374
142015DeVante Parker, Mia.502649419.0393.478
72005Troy Williamson, Min.522437215.5276.082
152016Corey Coleman, Cle.733341312.5393.383
52017Corey Davis, Ten.653437511.0071.585
82000Plaxico Burress, Pitt.652227312.4049.386
22003Charles Rogers, Det.522224311.1366.088
102005Mike Williams (USC), Det.572935012.1170.088
122020Henry Ruggs, L.V.432645217.4288.189
92004Reggie Williams, Jac.54272689.9163.893
72009Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.40912413.8129.3118
72017Mike Williams (Clemson), LAC2311958.6020.5139
122022Jameson Williams, Det.914141.0115.1158
92017John Ross, Cin.2000.001.2199
72015Kevin White, Chi.0000.000.0999

The odds get a little longer outside the top 15 picks. There have been about the same number of wide receivers (48) drafted in the latter half of the first round since 2000. Of those 48, just half as many (6) have ranked in the top 25, and just over half as many (12) have finished in the top 40.

ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED PICKS 16-32, 2000-PRESENT
PkYearPlayerTgtNoRecAvgTDPPRRk
222020Justin Jefferson, Min.12588140015.97274.26
282014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.14573100813.89227.816
262018Calvin Ridley, Atl.926482112.810208.820
172020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.1117493512.67219.722
232007Dwayne Bowe, K.C.1167099514.25199.522
222009Percy Harvin, Min.916079013.28200.523
292009Hakeem Nicks, NYG744779016.86162.833
192009Jeremy Maclin, Phil.915677313.84156.635
252020Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.966074812.57184.535
242018DJ Moore, Car.825578814.32163.036
252006Santonio Holmes, Pitt.864982416.83150.738
292013Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.774546910.49161.738
242010Dez Bryant, Dall.734556112.58149.142
202012Kendall Wright, Ten.104646269.84151.045
252019Marquise Brown, Balt.714658412.77146.446
212000Sylvester Morris, K.C.1054867814.13135.449
272013DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.915280215.42144.249
162022Jahan Dotson, Was.613552314.97130.651
302009Kenny Britt, Ten.754270116.73130.152
212005Matt Jones, Jac.693643212.05114.953
222005Mark Clayton, Balt.874447110.73112.455
202014Brandin Cooks, N.O.695355010.44139.356
212016Will Fuller, Hou.924763513.53128.261
322007Anthony Gonzalez, Ind.513757615.63112.666
192002Ashley Lelie, Den.533552515.02103.569
272021Rashod Bateman, Balt.684651511.21103.570
272005Roddy White, Atl.692944615.4392.871
182022Treylon Burks, Ten.543344413.5294.178
172003Bryant Johnson, Ariz.773543812.5184.882
302001Reggie Wayne, Ind.492734512.8061.586
202021Kadarius Toney, NYG573942010.8082.689
252001Freddie Mitchell, Phil.432128313.5154.989
212020Jalen Reagor, Phil.543139612.8287.291
202002Javon Walker, G.B.502331913.9162.095
222010Demaryius Thomas, Den.392228312.9262.495
202015Nelson Agholor, Phil.442328312.3157.3101
292000R. Jay Soward, Jac.341415411.0138.2102
302007Craig Davis, S.D.34201889.4145.7106
262011Jonathan Baldwin, K.C.522125412.1152.4108
292015Phillip Dorsett, Ind.391822512.5148.2110
312004Rashaun Woods, S.F.23716022.9129.0122
322019N'Keal Harry, N.E.24121058.8239.4124
292004Michael Jenkins, Atl.20711917.0019.1136
162001Santana Moss, NYJ1724020.005.4153
222016Josh Doctson, Was.626633.008.6170
232016Laquon Treadwell, Min.311515.002.5188
262015Breshad Perriman, Balt.0000.000.0999
302012A.J. Jenkins, S.F.1000.000.0999
202023Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.???????
212023Quentin Johnston, LAC???????
222023Zay Flowers, Bal.???????
232023Jordan Addison, Min.???????

Broadly speaking, it's about half as likely that players selected where Addison (and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers) were are viable fantasy starters as rookies than if they'd been selected where Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Drake London were a year ago.

Two other thoughts that come to mind. The first is that three of those six top-25 performers from the second half of the round have done it in the last five years. That includes Addison's teammate, Jefferson. So it seems fair to say that's it's more likely today than it was in 2005, 2010 or 2015.

The second is that in scanning the two tables, it's not a great track record for those first-rounders who didn't do much in their first seasons. From the first table, of the 25 who didn't put up top-40 numbers as rookies, I see a few guys who had good seasons or two (DeVante Parker, Braylon Edwards, Chargers' Mike Williams) but no superstars (jury still out on Jerry Jeudy). From the second table, I see more stars (Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss), but the percentages remain bad -- most of those guys who didn't do much as rookies didn't do much in their careers. So that's what guys like Jameson Williams, Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks are up against.

In general, will be nice if these rookies put up good numbers as rookies. Seems to increase the odds of them going to have noteworthy careers. Certainly, Smith-Njigba runs the risk of being overshadowed by a couple of great veterans in Seattle (as does Johnston with the Chargers, and Flowers with Baltimore), and Addison needs to beat out K.J. Osborn, which might not happen immediately. But chances of success are a little better if they emerge in their rookie seasons.

--Andy Richardson