I like Dameon Pierce. I understand that he was held back last year by having a lesser cast around him. But I also recognize that teams change.

The Texans ranked next-to-last in rushing last year, down at 87 yards per game. They also scored only 7 rushing touchdowns all year (also next-to-last). But to me, they look like a team that can get a lot better (particularly in that regard). The offensive line looks just fine, and they’ve got a new offensive coordinator coming in to re-design the offense. And Pierce had a really nice rookie season, looking at times like a young Marshawn Lynch – he’s a violent tackle breaker.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston’s rushing production moves up to something close to average. That would be a big improvement, but it wouldn’t be uncommon.

Consider the following chart. It shows the last 40 teams that have ranked last or next-to-last in rushing production (using standard fantasy scoring – 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). The table shows how those seemingly crappy teams fared the next season. Of the 40 teams, over half moved out of the bottom 10. And 30 percent of the teams (12 of 40) moved up to above average.

OFFENSES RANKING LAST OR NEXT-TO-LAST IN RUSHING (the next year)
YearTeamPrev seasonAttYardsTDF PtsRk
2003Chicago382-1344-8443176313254.320
2003Houston424-1347-6421165114249.121
2004• Arizona403-1531-5475166815256.816
2004Detroit376-1338-540717777219.725
2005• Miami384-1339-10444189811255.816
2005Oakland327-1295-10361136911202.925
2006Arizona360-1138-2419133812205.828
2006Cleveland395-1503-437213357175.531
2007• Cleveland372-1335-7440189513267.513
2007Detroit304-1129-9324128813206.825
2008Chicago423-1330-8434167315257.319
2008Kansas City383-1248-637918109235.025
2009• Cincinnati420-1520-650520569259.615
2009Detroit352-1332-1040916169215.626
2010• Tampa Bay404-1627-543120019254.113
2010Chicago373-1492-6414161610221.624
2011Arizona320-1388-9389162512234.522
2011Washington351-1461-940016148209.426
2012Cleveland415-1531-4396159312231.321
2012Tennessee376-1438-8378168710228.722
2013• Oakland376-1420-4437200016296.010
2013Jacksonville358-1369-537812607168.031
2014• Cleveland348-1383-4477172817274.812
2014Jacksonville378-1260-736016339217.322
2015• Arizona397-1308-6452191716287.78
2015Oakland337-1240-437014577187.727
2016San Diego393-1358-4398151010211.026
2016Detroit354-1335-735013109185.029
2017• Minnesota380-1205-9501195715285.77
2017NY Giants398-1412-639415496190.927
2018Cincinnati377-1366-6359168213246.219
2018Miami360-1388-437117387215.829
2019• Minnesota357-1493-9476213319327.34
2019• Arizona355-1342-9396199018307.08
2020Miami349-1156-10428168815258.820
2020NY Jets383-1257-640616839222.329
2021Jacksonville337-1519-9392175513253.523
2021Houston344-1466-1042014228190.232
2022• Atlanta393-1451-11559271817373.85
2022Houston420-1422-839814767189.631
2023Tampa Bay386-1308-5?????
2023Houston398-1476-7?????

While I’ve got these numbers out, I may as well also show you the improvement stats for teams ranking 29th and 30th (again, using fantasy scoring). Of the last 40 such teams, half moved up out of the bottom 10, and 35 percent (14 of 40) moved up to above average (that is, ranking in the top 16 out of the 32 teams).

These stats in general indicate that one should be careful not to underestimate guys like Pierce, Rachaad White, James Conner, Cam Akers and Jonathan Taylor. If the past is any indication, some of these bad teams will be a lot better than you might expect (or at least have some success running the ball).

TEAMS RANKING 29th AND 30th IN RUSHING (the next year)
YearTeamPrev seasonAttYardsTDF PtsRk
2003Tampa Bay414-1557-642116485194.829
2003Detroit358-1477-937613385163.832
2004• NY Giants387-1559-6424190418298.49
2004Tampa Bay421-1648-539314899202.929
2005• Tampa Bay393-1489-9457182613260.615
2005Cleveland441-1657-639515034174.331
2006NY Jets384-1328-10491173815263.817
2006Baltimore452-1605-5476163711229.723
2007• Tampa Bay404-1523-6449187215277.28
2007• Oakland394-1519-5508208611274.610
2008• Atlanta385-1520-7560244323382.32
2008St. Louis404-1527-541716498212.927
2009• Cleveland409-1605-6498208710268.713
2009Arizona340-1178-14365149416245.417
2010Seattle395-1566-7385142413220.425
2010Washington391-1510-835114619200.131
2011• New Orleans380-1519-9431212716308.76
2011Cincinnati428-1522-8455177810237.821
2012• Detroit356-1523-9391161317263.313
2012• Tampa Bay346-1458-9416183713261.715
2013San Diego411-1461-448619659250.519
2013Dallas355-1265-8336150712222.722
2014• Baltimore423-1328-7448201916297.95
2014Atlanta321-1247-11372149811215.823
2015• Tampa Bay353-1375-7455216212288.27
2015San Diego398-1367-639313584159.832
2016Indianapolis396-1438-6409162813240.818
2016Jacksonville354-1473-539216318211.125
2017• LA Rams375-1252-9454195317297.35
2017Detroit350-1310-9363122110182.129
2018Detroit363-1221-1040416601123223
2018Arizona409-1386-635513429188.232
2019Jacksonville416-1723-738917083188.829
2019Miami371-1738-7349115610175.631
2020Pittsburgh395-1447-7373135112207.130
2020Jacksonville389-1708-333715199205.932
2021NY Jets406-1683-9380166714250.725
2021Pittsburgh373-1351-12411158310218.329
2022• NY Giants419-1688-8520251921377.93
2022• Pittsburgh411-1583-10500207316303.315
2023Indianapolis439-1866-8?????
2023Cincinnati399-1528-14?????

—Ian Allan