Yesterday I ran an item discussing the likelihood of a "sophomore slump" when it came to rookie running backs. I said I'd look at the history for wide receivers, as well, and here's that information.
With running backs, the numbers were inconclusive. About half of the solid rookies put up similar or better numbers in Year 2, about half declined by a decent amount. Injuries were a huge part of the picture for those who declined, which isn't exactly a slump -- anyone can get hurt.
Since injuries are less common at the wide receiver position, I figured we'd have a much smaller percentage of players decline. And that's how things turned out. At this position, it looks fair to say, the bigger question is to what extent players will break out with even bigger years in their second seasons, rather than decline.
For this table, I looked at all wide receivers who put up at least 750 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. Since 2000, there have been 55 such wideouts, including four las year: Garrett Wilson (pictured), Chris Olave, Drake London and George Pickens.
Of those 51 previous wide receivers, a remarkable 39 came back with at least 750 receiving yards in their second season -- that's over 76 percent. A 750-yard wideout isn't necessarily particularly special, but 30 of them (about 60 percent) went over 1,000 yards. In PPR leagues, 19 of them put up top-12 production, including three from last year (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith). Two thirds (34 of 51) finished in the top 25. Most of the ones who didn't battled injuries in their second seasons.
Table below shows those 55 750-yard rookies, sorted by their Year 2 receiving yards.
| 750-YARD ROOKIE WIDEOUTS, ONE YEAR LATER (2000-PRESENT) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk | Nx(Ru-Rec-TD) | Rk |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon, Cle. | 50 | 805 | 5 | 41 | 87-1646-9 | 3 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 6 | 108-1616-10 | 4 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 8 | 96-1450-13 | 5 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 8 | 20 | 111-1426-7 | 8 |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 58 | 780 | 8 | 31 | 103-1409-10 | 2 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 12 | 75-1356-8 | 8 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 17 | 97-1350-11 | 4 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 48 | 756 | 5 | 38 | 78-1331-12 | 3 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 58 | 900 | 7 | 29 | 83-1303-10 | 7 |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 39 | 756 | 6 | 36 | 60-1257-10 | 9 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1137 | 9 | 7 | 104-1245-5 | 6 |
| 2013 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 2 | 49 | 76-1210-6 | 14 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 13 | 74-1206-3 | 22 |
| 2006 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 70 | 1038 | 8 | 16 | 98-1202-11 | 8 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 8 | 21 | 79-1198-10 | 11 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 5 | 30 | 95-1196-7 | 9 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 | 36 | 87-1175-4 | 16 |
| 2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 90 | 912 | 6 | 22 | 106-1161-6 | 7 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 84 | 758 | 5 | 30 | 110-1157-6 | 9 |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 62 | 912 | 4 | 30 | 62-1156-12 | 10 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 21 | 83-1153-5 | 15 |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | 4 | 22 | 79-1142-6 | 18 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 30 | 87-1118-4 | 20 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 22 | 79-1102-6 | 19 |
| 2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 67 | 908 | 6 | 28 | 74-1091-6 | 23 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 8 | 28 | 82-1083-5 | 19 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 22 | 70-1075-12 | 11 |
| 2009 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 6 | 33 | 79-1052-11 | 8 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 6 | 27 | 60-1047-9 | 20 |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 5 | 22 | 86-1022-7 | 16 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 25 | 85-997-8 | 16 |
| 2009 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 56 | 773 | 4 | 35 | 70-964-10 | 14 |
| 2006 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 3 | 38 | 52-942-8 | 24 |
| 2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 23 | 71-868-7 | 19 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 | 20 | 63-866-7 | 27 |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 23 | 59-860-2 | 38 |
| 2011 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 50 | 841 | 7 | 30 | 49-855-8 | 31 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 18 | 77-783-4 | 36 |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 964 | 11 | 16 | 65-771-3 | 36 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 9 | 29 | 48-743-7 | 32 |
| 2001 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 48 | 883 | 7 | 33 | 52-734-3 | 47 |
| 2004 | Roy Williams, Det. | 54 | 817 | 8 | 32 | 45-687-8 | 35 |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 101 | 1377 | 8 | 3 | 56-623-1 | 52 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 5 | 25 | 40-566-6 | 51 |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 52 | 856 | 3 | 45 | 38-467-0 | 85 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 29 | 29-415-1 | 93 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 57 | 802 | 6 | 31 | 33-391-1 | 96 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 14 | 32-372-0 | 89 |
| 2011 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 51 | 788 | 4 | 42 | 29-366-3 | 79 |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 91 | 980 | 5 | 14 | 37-345-2 | 81 |
| 2004 | Keary Colbert, Car. | 47 | 754 | 5 | 41 | 25-282-2 | 93 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 21 | ??? | ??? |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 24 | ??? | ??? |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 72 | 866 | 4 | 28 | ??? | ??? |
| 2022 | George Pickens, Pitt. | 52 | 801 | 5 | 40 | ??? | ??? |
Three of those 2022 rookies made it into our initial top 25 at the position this year. Based on the history, pretty good chance that optimism will prove to be well-founded. I will not hesitate to select any of the four (including Pickens, who made it into our top 40) in drafts. It's a really nice track record.
--Andy Richardson