I will be interested to see Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder in the preseason. Both are being elevated into starting lineups in their second seasons, and both have intriguing weapons around them.
In the case of Ridder, a third-round pick a year ago, the Falcons have used top-10 picks the last three years on skill-position guys: Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson. The Falcons had a run-dominated offense last year, but I expect they’ll start opening things up some.
With Howell, he lasted until the fifth round in last year’s draft but looks like a similar kind of prospect. And he’ll be working with one of the league’s better trios of wide receivers: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. Washington has brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense.
With both of these quarterbacks, I don’t think they’ll be among the first 25 chosen at their position this summer. But with each, there’s some sense to selecting them in late rounds as third quarterbacks – keep them around for the first few weeks of the season to cover the possibility of them developing into top-15 type guys. Both are capable runners.
Both, of course, also have the potential to flame out. Both teams have hedged their bets with the two most-expensive backup quarterback buys of the offseason. Jacoby Brissett is making $8 million per year; there are some in Washington who believe he’ll replace Howell sooner rather than later. And the Falcons signed Taylor Heinicke to a contract averaging $7 million. No other veteran backup quarterbacks are making much more than $5 million.
Looking at some comps, I see other quarterbacks who have managed to pull off what Ridder and Howell are attempting. Below see the 23 quarterbacks selected after the first half of the first round who’ve started less than half of their first season, then started more than half of the time in either their second or third year. Six of these players were selected in the second half of the first round, which is kind of a gray area (Lamar Jackson in particular had some success as a rookie), and I’ve got them tagged with black dots. I didn’t include the quarterbacks chosen early in the first round, because they seem to be something a little different.
The stats below aren’t total stats but instead show the average production in games started. (If a player threw 3 TDs off the bench, those aren’t included – these are “per start” numbers only.) The final column shows how the player ranked relative to other quarterbacks who started at least eight games.
Of these 23 quarterbacks (in the 32-team era), six averaged top-10 numbers. Another six averaged top-20 numbers. That’s about half the guys (though there were also players, of course, who aren’t listed at all because they flamed out or got hurt, not starting half the season).
| TAKING THE HELM | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2019 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 32 | 15 | 208 | 2.40 | 80 | .47 | 30.9 | 1 |
| 2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 88 | 10 | 265 | 2.40 | 22 | .30 | 27.2 | 3 |
| 2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 53 | 15 | 210 | 1.07 | 52 | .67 | 24.0 | 10 |
| 2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 213 | 15 | 240 | 1.87 | 5 | .20 | 21.3 | 7 |
| 2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 217 | 11 | 213 | 1.55 | 31 | .18 | 21.0 | 8 |
| 2013 | Terrelle Pryor, Oak. | Sup | 9 | 196 | .78 | 61 | .22 | 20.4 | 17 |
| 2011 | • Tim Tebow, Den. | 25 | 11 | 150 | 1.00 | 57 | .45 | 20.3 | 12 |
| 2019 | Kyle Allen, Car. | FA | 12 | 252 | 1.42 | 8 | .17 | 20.1 | 23 |
| 2013 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 36 | 16 | 200 | 1.31 | 33 | .25 | 20.0 | 21 |
| 2020 | Drew Lock, Den. | 42 | 13 | 226 | 1.23 | 12 | .23 | 19.0 | 26 |
| 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 147 | 9 | 204 | 1.00 | 30 | .22 | 18.8 | 17 |
| 2016 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 250 | 14 | 243 | 1.29 | 4 | .00 | 17.8 | 26 |
| 2017 | Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 91 | 15 | 203 | .87 | 17 | .27 | 17.0 | 25 |
| 2003 | • Patrick Ramsey, Was. | 32 | 11 | 197 | 1.27 | 6 | .09 | 16.4 | 18 |
| 2007 | • Jason Campbell, Was. | 25 | 13 | 208 | .92 | 14 | .08 | 16.3 | 16 |
| 2006 | Charlie Frye, Cle. | 67 | 13 | 189 | .77 | 17 | .23 | 15.6 | 20 |
| 2006 | • J.P. Losman, Buff. | 22 | 16 | 191 | 1.19 | 9 | .06 | 15.5 | 21 |
| 2009 | Chad Henne, Mia. | 57 | 13 | 214 | .92 | 2 | .08 | 15.1 | 26 |
| 2007 | Tarvaris Jackson, Min. | 64 | 12 | 159 | .75 | 22 | .25 | 15.0 | 20 |
| 2004 | Josh McCown, Ari. | 81 | 13 | 188 | .85 | 9 | .15 | 14.7 | 28 |
| 2005 | Chris Simms, T.B. | 97 | 10 | 197 | 1.00 | 3 | .00 | 14.1 | 27 |
| 2009 | • Brady Quinn, Cle. | 22 | 9 | 148 | .89 | 11 | .11 | 12.7 | 30 |
| 2005 | Brooks Bollinger, NYJ | 200 | 9 | 151 | .56 | 13 | .00 | 11.1 | 31 |
| 2023 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 74 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Sam Howell, Wash. | 144 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan