There are some who believe experience is a key with rookie quarterbacks. Bill Parcells, for one, in his day preferred to draft prospects who had started at least 30 games in college. A pair of Parcells-type prospects were the most notable rookie quarterbacks last year, with Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy both completing over 900 passes before they were drafted.
But is there anything to this? Josh Allen didn’t attempt many passes at Wyoming, and he’s been awesome. And Cam Newton completed fewer than 200 passes at Auburn but had a nice run at Carolina, including an MVP season.
I’m not sure how I feel about this issue. Certainly the game has changed a ton since the days when Parcells was coaching. Top prospects sticking around in college for their senior seasons is now the exception rather than the norm. And quarterbacks are showing up at college with a lot more coaching and experience, with high school teams passing more.
Below is the list of all rookie quarterbacks who’ve won at least five starts in the 32-team era. I’ve got them in order by the number of passes they attempted in college (with Pickett and Purdy both in the top 4).
I don’t see anything super meaningful. I guess one could say that there are six quarterbacks on the list who were selected after the second round, and all but one of them attempted at least 1,100 passes in college. Lightly regarded rookies who were able to step in capably run an offense in their first season tended to be experienced guys – Purdy, Russell Wilson, Kyle Orton, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH AT LEAST 5 WINS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rd-Pk | W-L | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2022 | • Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 1-20 | 7-5 | 1,045 | 1,674 | 12,303 | 81 | 32 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 1-1 | 6-7 | 1,026 | 1,497 | 14,607 | 131 | 30 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3-75 | 11-5 | 907 | 1,489 | 11,720 | 109 | 30 |
| 2022 | • Brock Purdy, S.F. | 7-262 | 5-0 | 993 | 1,467 | 12,170 | 81 | 33 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 2-39 | 8-8 | 988 | 1,465 | 11,662 | 98 | 21 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 1-7 | 5-8 | 939 | 1,442 | 11,903 | 89 | 28 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 1-3 | 11-5 | 807 | 1,347 | 9,313 | 56 | 37 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 4-106 | 10-5 | 786 | 1,336 | 9,337 | 63 | 28 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 2-35 | 9-7 | 812 | 1,317 | 10,314 | 71 | 30 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 1-11 | 13-0 | 854 | 1,304 | 10,829 | 84 | 34 |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 1-19 | 5-4 | 622 | 1,301 | 7,980 | 64 | 48 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 1-6 | 6-9 | 827 | 1,293 | 10,541 | 95 | 23 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 1-2 | 9-6 | 800 | 1,192 | 10,366 | 78 | 17 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4-135 | 13-3 | 734 | 1,169 | 9,376 | 70 | 23 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 6-178 | 6-6 | 761 | 1,168 | 8,266 | 62 | 20 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 1-32 | 6-6 | 781 | 1,142 | 9,817 | 72 | 24 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 1-22 | 5-10 | 767 | 1,103 | 9,260 | 75 | 27 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 1-32 | 6-1 | 619 | 1,086 | 9,043 | 69 | 27 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 1-1 | 11-5 | 713 | 1,064 | 9,430 | 82 | 22 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 1-18 | 11-5 | 596 | 943 | 7,057 | 41 | 15 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 1-1 | 7-9 | 604 | 893 | 8,403 | 88 | 16 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 3-92 | 5-4 | 487 | 865 | 5,429 | 36 | 33 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 1-1 | 6-10 | 562 | 851 | 7,964 | 65 | 28 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 1-8 | 7-9 | 484 | 774 | 5,450 | 42 | 21 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 1-3 | 8-5 | 444 | 718 | 6,040 | 44 | 28 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 1-5 | 6-3 | 474 | 684 | 7,442 | 87 | 11 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 1-7 | 5-6 | 365 | 649 | 5,066 | 44 | 21 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 1-2 | 7-9 | 392 | 612 | 5,115 | 45 | 14 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 1-15 | 10-7 | 413 | 556 | 6,126 | 56 | 7 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 1-1 | 5-10 | 350 | 519 | 5,406 | 50 | 14 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 1-5 | 8-7 | 313 | 487 | 3,964 | 41 | 16 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 1-1 | 6-10 | 191 | 292 | 2,908 | 30 | 7 |
Looking at the current draft, there were three quarterbacks selected with top-4 picks. Of that group, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud come in with a decent amount of experience, while Anthony Richardson hardly played at Florida. He attempted only 393 passes at Florida, which is over 100 fewer than all of those previously mentioned quarterbacks except Newton and Mark Sanchez.
With Richardson’s limited experience, I think it’s fair to wonder if he might be undermined by some of the same issues as Trey Lance. Richardson at least is paired with a good offensive coach; Shane Steichen had success with a similar style of quarterback in Philadelphia. But Lance similarly was dropped into an ideal situation (with Kyle Shanahan and a bunch of cool weapons).
In the 2023 crop of rookies, also note that there were four Purdy-type prospects selected in the fourth and fifth rounds. Aidan O’Connell, Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Sean Clifford all attempted more than 1,200 passes in college. Clifford was good enough at Penn State that Will Levis transferred. Considering the quarterbacks starting for those teams (Garoppolo, Kyler, Deshaun W, Love) some of those four rookies might actually step on the field this year.
| CURRENT ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rd-Pk | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 1-1 | 624 | 949 | 8,356 | 80 | 12 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 1-2 | 575 | 830 | 8,123 | 85 | 12 |
| Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 1-4 | 215 | 393 | 3,105 | 24 | 15 |
| Will Levis, Ten. | 2-33 | 479 | 738 | 5,876 | 46 | 25 |
| Hendon Hooker, Det. | 3-68 | 632 | 944 | 8,974 | 80 | 12 |
| Jake Haener, N.O. | 4-127 | 740 | 1,085 | 9,120 | 68 | 18 |
| Stetson Bennett, LAR | 4-128 | 601 | 924 | 8,429 | 66 | 21 |
| Aidan O’Connell, L.V. | 4-135 | 826 | 1,239 | 9,219 | 65 | 30 |
| Clayton Tune, Ari. | 5-139 | 956 | 1,497 | 11,994 | 104 | 41 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cle. | 5-140 | 860 | 1,359 | 10,710 | 88 | 36 |
| Sean Clifford, G.B. | 5-149 | 833 | 1,356 | 10,661 | 86 | 31 |
| Jaren Hall, Min. | 5-164 | 468 | 718 | 6,174 | 52 | 11 |
| Tanner McKee, Phil. | 6-188 | 473 | 748 | 5,336 | 28 | 15 |
| Max Duggan, LAC | 7-239 | 739 | 1,225 | 9,618 | 73 | 28 |
—Ian Allan