Factoid

July 06, 2023

Wide receivers with rookie QBs

How might Bryce, Stroud WRs fare?

I've seen a couple of stories go by the last few days with coaches talking up young or unproven wide receivers. Most notably, Frank Reich has had good things to say about both rookie Jonathan Mingo and third-year veteran Terrace Marshall. Both will of course be working with a rookie quarterback, Bryce Young (pictured). Where should expectations be set?

Young was the top pick in the draft and is considered to be extremely NFL-ready, so there's not much doubt he'll be a Week 1 starter. C.J. Stroud in Houston and Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis are also candidates to start early on. So I was wondering if recent history would enable us to draw conclusions about how the likely starting wideouts will fare on those teams: guys like Robert Woods and some youngster in Houston, Adam Thielen/DJ Chark or perhaps Mingo or Marshall in Carolina, and Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce in Indianapolis.

In the last 10 years, there have been 27 rookie quarterbacks to start at least 10 games. I pulled the stats from the top 2 wide receivers for each of those 27 quarterbacks, so 54 wide receivers in all. I don't know that there's anything conclusive, but I think we can say there's a reasonable chance for quality production.

Of those 54 wide receivers, a dozen (22 percent) ranked in the top 30 at their position (PPR). Eleven more at least finished in the top 40. So that's 43 percent of those rookie quarterbacks' top wideouts who had at least some value in fantasy leagues.

In the table, wide receivers who put up top 30 production with rookie starters the last 10 years are in bold.

WIDE RECEIVERS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, 2013-2022
Year	QB	WR	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	PPR	Rk
2013	Manuel	Stevie Johnson, Buff.	52	597	11.5	3	132.7	54
2013	Manuel	Robert Woods, Buff.	40	587	14.7	3	120.3	59
2013	Smith	Jeremy Kerley, NYJ	43	523	12.2	3	114.4	60
2013	Smith	David Nelson, NYJ	36	423	11.8	2	90.3	82
2013	Glennon	Vincent Jackson, T.B.	78	1224	15.7	7	242.4	16
2013	Glennon	Tiquan Underwood, T.B.	24	440	18.3	4	92.0	80
2014	Bortles	Allen Hurns, Jac.	51	677	13.3	6	154.7	49
2014	Bortles	Cecil Shorts, Jac.	53	557	10.5	1	120.3	63
2014	Bridgwater	Greg Jennings, Min.	59	742	12.6	6	169.2	42
2014	Bridgwater	Jarius Wright, Min.	42	588	14.0	2	119.9	64
2014	Carr	James Jones, Oak.	73	666	9.1	6	175.6	38
2014	Carr	Andre Holmes, Oak.	47	693	14.7	4	140.3	55
2015	Winston	Mike Evans, T.B.	74	1206	16.3	3	212.6	22
2015	Winston	Vincent Jackson, T.B.	33	543	16.5	3	107.3	66
2015	Mariota	Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten.	32	549	17.2	4	112.9	59
2015	Mariota	Kendall Wright, Ten.	36	408	11.3	3	96.5	75
2016	Prescott	Cole Beasley, Dall.	75	833	11.1	5	189.0	33
2016	Prescott	Dez Bryant, Dall.	50	796	15.9	8	182.1	39
2016	Wentz	Jordan Matthews, Phil.	73	804	11.0	3	171.4	44
2016	Wentz	Nelson Agholor, Phil.	36	365	10.1	2	87.9	87
2017	Trubisky	Kendall Wright, Chi.	59	614	10.4	1	126.4	53
2017	Trubisky	Josh Bellamy, Chi.	24	376	15.7	1	68.2	89
2017	Kizer	Rashard Higgins, Cle.	27	312	11.6	2	70.6	86
2017	Kizer	Corey Coleman, Cle.	23	305	13.3	2	65.5	92
2018	Rosen	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	69	734	10.6	6	186.0	26
2018	Rosen	Christian Kirk, Ariz.	43	590	13.7	3	123.5	58
2018	Allen	Zay Jones, Buff.	56	652	11.6	7	165.2	35
2018	Allen	Robert Foster, Buff.	27	541	20.0	3	99.1	76
2018	Mayfield	Jarvis Landry, Cle.	81	976	12.1	5	219.8	18
2018	Mayfield	Antonio Callaway, Cle.	43	586	13.6	5	134.3	54
2018	Darnold	Robby Anderson, NYJ	50	752	15.0	6	160.4	37
2018	Darnold	Quincy Enunwa, NYJ	38	449	11.8	1	88.9	83
2019	Murray	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	75	804	10.7	4	179.4	35
2019	Murray	Christian Kirk, Ariz.	68	709	10.4	3	168.2	38
2019	Minshew	DJ Chark, Jac.	73	1008	13.8	8	225.8	18
2019	Minshew	Dede Westbrook, Jac.	66	660	10.0	3	156.7	43
2019	Jones	Darius Slayton, NYG	48	740	15.4	8	170.0	37
2019	Jones	Golden Tate, NYG	49	676	13.8	6	154.2	45
2020	Burrow	Tee Higgins, Cin.	67	908	13.6	6	196.6	28
2020	Burrow	Tyler Boyd, Cin.	79	841	10.7	4	192.8	30
2020	Herbert	Keenan Allen, LAC	100	992	9.9	8	249.1	12
2020	Herbert	Mike Williams, LAC	48	756	15.8	5	153.7	48
2021	Fields	Darnell Mooney, Chi.	81	1055	13.0	5	219.7	24
2021	Fields	Allen Robinson, Chi.	38	410	10.8	1	87.0	81
2021	Mills	Brandin Cooks, Hou.	90	1037	11.5	6	231.8	20
2021	Mills	Nico Collins, Hou.	33	446	13.5	1	83.6	87
2021	Lawrence	Marvin Jones, Jac.	73	832	11.4	4	180.2	34
2021	Lawrence	Laviska Shenault, Jac.	63	619	9.8	0	129.0	56
2021	Jones	Jakobi Meyers, N.E.	83	866	10.4	2	188.8	29
2021	Jones	Kendrick Bourne, N.E.	55	800	14.6	5	182.8	32
2021	Wilson	Elijah Moore, NYJ	43	538	12.5	6	138.2	50
2021	Wilson	Braxton Berrios, NYJ	46	431	9.4	5	123.1	59
2022	Pickett	Diontae Johnson, Pitt.	86	882	10.3	0	180.7	30
2022	Pickett	George Pickens, Pitt.	52	801	15.4	5	166.5	40

A lot of those more successful wide receivers have come recently, working with elite quarterbacks like Burrow and Herbert, but Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett each produced a top 30 wideout in the last two seasons, as well. Less likely to produce a top wideout, though, is Richardson, who’s both raw and working in what will likely be a run-dominated offense. (If you follow our rankings, Pittman won’t be on your team.)

Guys like Mingo and Marshall, of course, won't be factors if they can't make it into the starting lineup. But no reason to think Young himself can't produce a quality receiver or two.

--Andy Richardson

Bryce Young C.J. Stroud

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