I've seen a couple of stories go by the last few days with coaches talking up young or unproven wide receivers. Most notably, Frank Reich has had good things to say about both rookie Jonathan Mingo and third-year veteran Terrace Marshall. Both will of course be working with a rookie quarterback, Bryce Young (pictured). Where should expectations be set?
Young was the top pick in the draft and is considered to be extremely NFL-ready, so there's not much doubt he'll be a Week 1 starter. C.J. Stroud in Houston and Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis are also candidates to start early on. So I was wondering if recent history would enable us to draw conclusions about how the likely starting wideouts will fare on those teams: guys like Robert Woods and some youngster in Houston, Adam Thielen/DJ Chark or perhaps Mingo or Marshall in Carolina, and Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce in Indianapolis.
In the last 10 years, there have been 27 rookie quarterbacks to start at least 10 games. I pulled the stats from the top 2 wide receivers for each of those 27 quarterbacks, so 54 wide receivers in all. I don't know that there's anything conclusive, but I think we can say there's a reasonable chance for quality production.
Of those 54 wide receivers, a dozen (22 percent) ranked in the top 30 at their position (PPR). Eleven more at least finished in the top 40. So that's 43 percent of those rookie quarterbacks' top wideouts who had at least some value in fantasy leagues.
In the table, wide receivers who put up top 30 production with rookie starters the last 10 years are in bold.
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, 2013-2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | QB | WR | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2013 | Manuel | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 52 | 597 | 11.5 | 3 | 132.7 | 54 |
| 2013 | Manuel | Robert Woods, Buff. | 40 | 587 | 14.7 | 3 | 120.3 | 59 |
| 2013 | Smith | Jeremy Kerley, NYJ | 43 | 523 | 12.2 | 3 | 114.4 | 60 |
| 2013 | Smith | David Nelson, NYJ | 36 | 423 | 11.8 | 2 | 90.3 | 82 |
| 2013 | Glennon | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 78 | 1224 | 15.7 | 7 | 242.4 | 16 |
| 2013 | Glennon | Tiquan Underwood, T.B. | 24 | 440 | 18.3 | 4 | 92.0 | 80 |
| 2014 | Bortles | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 51 | 677 | 13.3 | 6 | 154.7 | 49 |
| 2014 | Bortles | Cecil Shorts, Jac. | 53 | 557 | 10.5 | 1 | 120.3 | 63 |
| 2014 | Bridgwater | Greg Jennings, Min. | 59 | 742 | 12.6 | 6 | 169.2 | 42 |
| 2014 | Bridgwater | Jarius Wright, Min. | 42 | 588 | 14.0 | 2 | 119.9 | 64 |
| 2014 | Carr | James Jones, Oak. | 73 | 666 | 9.1 | 6 | 175.6 | 38 |
| 2014 | Carr | Andre Holmes, Oak. | 47 | 693 | 14.7 | 4 | 140.3 | 55 |
| 2015 | Winston | Mike Evans, T.B. | 74 | 1206 | 16.3 | 3 | 212.6 | 22 |
| 2015 | Winston | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 33 | 543 | 16.5 | 3 | 107.3 | 66 |
| 2015 | Mariota | Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten. | 32 | 549 | 17.2 | 4 | 112.9 | 59 |
| 2015 | Mariota | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 36 | 408 | 11.3 | 3 | 96.5 | 75 |
| 2016 | Prescott | Cole Beasley, Dall. | 75 | 833 | 11.1 | 5 | 189.0 | 33 |
| 2016 | Prescott | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 50 | 796 | 15.9 | 8 | 182.1 | 39 |
| 2016 | Wentz | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 73 | 804 | 11.0 | 3 | 171.4 | 44 |
| 2016 | Wentz | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 36 | 365 | 10.1 | 2 | 87.9 | 87 |
| 2017 | Trubisky | Kendall Wright, Chi. | 59 | 614 | 10.4 | 1 | 126.4 | 53 |
| 2017 | Trubisky | Josh Bellamy, Chi. | 24 | 376 | 15.7 | 1 | 68.2 | 89 |
| 2017 | Kizer | Rashard Higgins, Cle. | 27 | 312 | 11.6 | 2 | 70.6 | 86 |
| 2017 | Kizer | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 23 | 305 | 13.3 | 2 | 65.5 | 92 |
| 2018 | Rosen | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 69 | 734 | 10.6 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
| 2018 | Rosen | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 43 | 590 | 13.7 | 3 | 123.5 | 58 |
| 2018 | Allen | Zay Jones, Buff. | 56 | 652 | 11.6 | 7 | 165.2 | 35 |
| 2018 | Allen | Robert Foster, Buff. | 27 | 541 | 20.0 | 3 | 99.1 | 76 |
| 2018 | Mayfield | Jarvis Landry, Cle. | 81 | 976 | 12.1 | 5 | 219.8 | 18 |
| 2018 | Mayfield | Antonio Callaway, Cle. | 43 | 586 | 13.6 | 5 | 134.3 | 54 |
| 2018 | Darnold | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 50 | 752 | 15.0 | 6 | 160.4 | 37 |
| 2018 | Darnold | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 38 | 449 | 11.8 | 1 | 88.9 | 83 |
| 2019 | Murray | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 75 | 804 | 10.7 | 4 | 179.4 | 35 |
| 2019 | Murray | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 68 | 709 | 10.4 | 3 | 168.2 | 38 |
| 2019 | Minshew | DJ Chark, Jac. | 73 | 1008 | 13.8 | 8 | 225.8 | 18 |
| 2019 | Minshew | Dede Westbrook, Jac. | 66 | 660 | 10.0 | 3 | 156.7 | 43 |
| 2019 | Jones | Darius Slayton, NYG | 48 | 740 | 15.4 | 8 | 170.0 | 37 |
| 2019 | Jones | Golden Tate, NYG | 49 | 676 | 13.8 | 6 | 154.2 | 45 |
| 2020 | Burrow | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 67 | 908 | 13.6 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2020 | Burrow | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 79 | 841 | 10.7 | 4 | 192.8 | 30 |
| 2020 | Herbert | Keenan Allen, LAC | 100 | 992 | 9.9 | 8 | 249.1 | 12 |
| 2020 | Herbert | Mike Williams, LAC | 48 | 756 | 15.8 | 5 | 153.7 | 48 |
| 2021 | Fields | Darnell Mooney, Chi. | 81 | 1055 | 13.0 | 5 | 219.7 | 24 |
| 2021 | Fields | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 38 | 410 | 10.8 | 1 | 87.0 | 81 |
| 2021 | Mills | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | 90 | 1037 | 11.5 | 6 | 231.8 | 20 |
| 2021 | Mills | Nico Collins, Hou. | 33 | 446 | 13.5 | 1 | 83.6 | 87 |
| 2021 | Lawrence | Marvin Jones, Jac. | 73 | 832 | 11.4 | 4 | 180.2 | 34 |
| 2021 | Lawrence | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 63 | 619 | 9.8 | 0 | 129.0 | 56 |
| 2021 | Jones | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 83 | 866 | 10.4 | 2 | 188.8 | 29 |
| 2021 | Jones | Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 55 | 800 | 14.6 | 5 | 182.8 | 32 |
| 2021 | Wilson | Elijah Moore, NYJ | 43 | 538 | 12.5 | 6 | 138.2 | 50 |
| 2021 | Wilson | Braxton Berrios, NYJ | 46 | 431 | 9.4 | 5 | 123.1 | 59 |
| 2022 | Pickett | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 86 | 882 | 10.3 | 0 | 180.7 | 30 |
| 2022 | Pickett | George Pickens, Pitt. | 52 | 801 | 15.4 | 5 | 166.5 | 40 |
A lot of those more successful wide receivers have come recently, working with elite quarterbacks like Burrow and Herbert, but Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett each produced a top 30 wideout in the last two seasons, as well. Less likely to produce a top wideout, though, is Richardson, who’s both raw and working in what will likely be a run-dominated offense. (If you follow our rankings, Pittman won’t be on your team.)
Guys like Mingo and Marshall, of course, won't be factors if they can't make it into the starting lineup. But no reason to think Young himself can't produce a quality receiver or two.
--Andy Richardson