I’m not a Jimmy Garoppolo fan, but with the numbers in front of me, I see that he’s been surprisingly effective as a short-yardage runner. Way more effective, in fact, than the running back he’ll be sharing the backfield with in Las Vegas.
To clarify up front, I’m not suggesting Garoppolo is a better short-yardage runner than Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. But strictly off the numbers, Garoppolo has converted a higher percentage of short-yardage runs than either of those guys.
That’s just the numbers say. Over the last three years, 57 players have carried the ball at least 20 times when their team has been looking to pick up an important yard. That is, either keeping a drive alive on third or fourth down, or looking to score at the goal line. Garoppolo on such plays has converted an NFL-best 95 percent of his carries (19 of 20) since 2020.
Five other players have converted over 85 percent of such plays, and they’re all quarterbacks – Ryan Tannehill, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz and Jacoby Brissett. Ronald Jones, who’s hoping to salvage his career in Dallas, has been the most effective running back on those plays, at 17 of 20.
Josh Jacobs, on the other hand, has been oddly ineffective on those plays. He’s converted only 31 of 53 such carries, which places him 52nd on that list. None of the five backs who’ve been less effective than him will be starting in Week 1. Jacobs hit above that level last year, going 12 of 17. That’s 71 percent last year, versus 53 percent in the previous two.
I’m not suggesting the Raiders will make Garoppolo (who’s had all kinds of injury issues) a big part of their short-yardage and goal-line rushing plans. But I expect he’ll get a few. Tom Brady always snuck the ball plenty when Josh McDaniels was coaching there. And Jacobs hasn’t signed his franchise tag tender, keeping the possibility alive that he’ll miss a portion of training camp.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (last 3 years) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (QB), S.F. | 19 | 20 | 95.0% |
| Ryan Tannehill (QB), Ten. | 24 | 26 | 92.3% |
| Justin Herbert (QB), LAC | 26 | 29 | 89.7% |
| Jalen Hurts (QB), Phil. | 47 | 53 | 88.7% |
| Carson Wentz (QB), 3 tms | 22 | 25 | 88.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett (QB), 3 tms | 29 | 34 | 85.3% |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 17 | 20 | 85.0% |
| Dak Prescott (QB), Dall. | 18 | 22 | 81.8% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 45 | 56 | 80.4% |
| Trevor Lawrence (QB), Jac. | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 24 | 30 | 80.0% |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
| Peyton Barber, Was.-L.V. | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 23 | 29 | 79.3% |
| Josh Allen (QB), Buff. | 34 | 43 | 79.1% |
| James Conner, Ariz. | 52 | 66 | 78.8% |
| Lamar Jackson (QB), Balt. | 18 | 23 | 78.3% |
| Cam Newton (QB), N.E.-Car. | 21 | 27 | 77.8% |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 27 | 35 | 77.1% |
| Taysom Hill (QB-TE), N.O. | 23 | 30 | 76.7% |
| Daniel Jones (QB), NYG | 16 | 21 | 76.2% |
| Kyler Murray (QB), Ariz. | 19 | 25 | 76.0% |
| Sony Michel, 3 tms | 19 | 25 | 76.0% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 50 | 66 | 75.8% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B.-Det. | 45 | 61 | 73.8% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 19 | 26 | 73.1% |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| Kenyan Drake, 3 tms | 21 | 29 | 72.4% |
| Latavius Murray, 4 tms | 18 | 25 | 72.0% |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 42 | 60 | 70.0% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC-Den. | 21 | 30 | 70.0% |
| Jeff Wilson, S.F.-Mia. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 30 | 43 | 69.8% |
| Cam Akers, LAR | 16 | 23 | 69.6% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 20 | 29 | 69.0% |
| Joe Burrow (QB), Cin. | 17 | 25 | 68.0% |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 28 | 42 | 66.7% |
| Darrel Williams, K.C.-Ari. | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| Mike Davis, 3 tms | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 27 | 42 | 64.3% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car.-S.F. | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 16 | 25 | 64.0% |
| James Robinson, Jac.-NYJ | 21 | 33 | 63.6% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 17 | 27 | 63.0% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| Joshua Kelley, LAC | 14 | 23 | 60.9% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 29 | 48 | 60.4% |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 13 | 22 | 59.1% |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 31 | 53 | 58.5% |
| Zack Moss, Buff.-Ind. | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
| Benny Snell, Pitt. | 14 | 25 | 56.0% |
| Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
| D'Andre Swift, Det. | 10 | 20 | 50.0% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson, Chi.-Atl. | 9 | 23 | 39.1% |
—Ian Allanb