We've been talking a lot about running backs lately; whether they're worth big money or not. A friend sent me a meme joking the argument against big contracts for running backs is LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott (who got paid, then struggled). I wondered how star wide receivers have fared.
Different ways to do this, but what I went with was using spotrac.com to look at the highest-paid wide receivers in the league (based on average annual salary) and see how they fared the season after they signed their big deals. Did those players go on to live up to those huge contracts, or were they more like Bell with the Jets and Gurley with the Rams?
I came up with 32 wide receivers currently playing on contracts averaging at least $10 million per season. Four of those players just signed those deals this offseason, so it remains to be seen how they'll fare. But the other 28 all signed their deals between 2018-2022. How did they fare the season after signing those deals?
Like many things, it seems to be about a 50-50 proposition.
Of the 28 players, about half (13) at least ranked in the top 17 (PPR) at their position a year later. I'll concede, if you're playing a guy $15-$20 million a year, you want them to be at least that good and probably better. But in general, those guys were pretty good. Twelve of the 13 went over 1,000 receiving yards the year after getting paid. Seven of them caught at least 8 TDs.
A quarter of the 28 wideouts (7) ranked in the top 12 at the position. That includes the 2-3-4-5 PPR wideouts a year ago: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown. Those teams aren't regretting the contracts they handed out last offseason.
The glass is half-empty view would be that just under half (12) of those players did not finish in the top 30 at the position that next season; disappointing for guys making that kind of money. Eight of them didn't even make it into the top 50. That includes a bunch of guys who got paid last offseason: Russell Gage, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Michael Gallup, Allen Robinson, Hunter Renfrow and Tim Patrick. Some of those contracts looks bad at the time they were signed, and that's how some of them played out.
Table shows the top 32 wideouts in the league based on average annual salary, sorted by their finish in PPR leagues one year later.
| WIDE RECEIVERS WHO GOT PAID, ONE YEAR LATER (2018-PRESENT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Annual | Next | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | $30M | 2022 | 119 | 1710 | 7 | 2 |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | $28M | 2022 | 100 | 1516 | 14 | 3 |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | $24M | 2022 | 108 | 1429 | 11 | 4 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | $25M | 2022 | 88 | 1496 | 11 | 5 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | $16.5M | 2018 | 86 | 1524 | 8 | 9 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | $20M | 2020 | 100 | 992 | 8 | 12 |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | $18M | 2022 | 84 | 1108 | 8 | 12 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | $24M | 2022 | 90 | 1048 | 6 | 14 |
| Amari Cooper, Dall. | $20M | 2020 | 92 | 1114 | 5 | 15 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | $22.8M | 2022 | 77 | 1191 | 5 | 16 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | $17.2M | 2021 | 73 | 1175 | 8 | 16 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | $20M | 2022 | 104 | 1023 | 3 | 17 |
| Tyler Boyd, Cin. | $10.8M | 2019 | 90 | 1046 | 5 | 17 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | $26.7M | 2022 | 75 | 812 | 6 | 23 |
| DJ Moore, Car. | $20.6M | 2022 | 63 | 888 | 7 | 25 |
| Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | $18.3M | 2022 | 86 | 882 | 0 | 30 |
| Mike Williams, LAC | $20M | 2022 | 63 | 895 | 4 | 33 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | $23.9M | 2022 | 56 | 632 | 2 | 36 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | $15.2M | 2021 | 58 | 776 | 2 | 44 |
| Brandin Cooks, Hou. | $19.8M | 2022 | 57 | 699 | 3 | 49 |
| Russell Gage, T.B. | $10M | 2022 | 51 | 426 | 5 | 53 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling, K.C. | $10M | 2022 | 42 | 687 | 2 | 54 |
| Michael Gallup, Dall. | $11.5M | 2022 | 39 | 424 | 4 | 68 |
| Corey Davis, NYJ | $12.5M | 2021 | 34 | 492 | 4 | 69 |
| Allen Robinson, LAR | $15.5M | 2022 | 33 | 339 | 3 | 85 |
| Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | $16.1M | 2022 | 36 | 330 | 2 | 92 |
| Curtis Samuel, Was. | $11.5M | 2021 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 180 |
| Tim Patrick, Den. | $11.3M | 2022 | Inj. | |||
| Odell Beckham, Balt. | $15M | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ten. | $13M | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Allen Lazard, NYJ | $11M | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | $11M | 2023 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
--Andy Richardson