I am a Jaxon Smith-Njigba fan. I think he’s the best of the rookie receivers. If I’m walking into a dynasty draft, he would be the first rookie wide receiver I would draft, and it wouldn’t even be close. (I think I’d rather have him than all three of the other wide receivers who went in the first round.)
That said, it’s going to be tough for Smith-Njigba to make a big impact right away. The Seahawks are already set up pretty well at wide receiver, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett one of the league’s better randems. As long as those guys stay healthy, I’m thinking, it will be tough for Smith-Njigba to carve out a good role.
Talent counts for something, of course, and Smith-Njigba at Ohio State was able to catch 25 more passes than both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He had that 347-yard game against Utah in the Rose Bowl. But I think he’s going to be a third option for the first part of his career, making it difficult for him to shine initially.
Out of curiosity, I looked up the numbers for other receivers who’ve been in similar situations. Randy Moss, most famously, joined a Minnesota team that was already well stocked at wide receiver, with Cris Carter and Jake Reed torching secondaries the previous year. Moss was a superstar from the git-go, piling up 1,313 yards and 17 TDs.
Two other historic receivers started in similar situations. Calvin Johnson with the Lions in 2007 came in behind Roy Williams and Mike Furrey initially. Johnson caught 48 passes for 756 yards and 4 TDs (the No. 38 wide receiver that year, using PPR scoring). Steve Smith (who might join Moss and Johnson in the Hall of Fame someday) went to a Carolina team that had Patrick Jeffers and Muhsin Muhammad coming off big season; Smith wasn’t much of a factor (10 catches for 154 yards).
By my count, 18 times in the last 25 years, a team with a pair of top-20 receivers (using PPR scoring) drafted a receiver in the first three rounds. All but two of those guys ranked outside the top 65 in production at the position.
I’m not sure how useful the following chart is. It includes those three historic wide receivers, and it’s awfully early to suggest Smith-Njigba might be anywhere near as good as any of those guys. But the Seahawks will be disappointed and surprised if he’s not a lot better than all of the other 15 receivers listed.
| ROOKIES JOINING A PAIR OF TOP-20 RECEIVERS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk | Returning veterans |
| 1998 | Randy Moss, Min. | 21 | 69 | 1313 | 17 | 306.7 | 2 | Cris Carter, Jake Reed |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 2 | 48 | 756 | 4 | 158.8 | 38 | Roy Williams, Mike Furrey |
| 2007 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 32 | 37 | 576 | 3 | 112.6 | 66 | Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne |
| 1998 | Germane Crowell, Det. | 50 | 25 | 464 | 3 | 92.9 | 67 | Herman Moore, Johnnie Morton |
| 2012 | Rueben Randle, NYG | 63 | 19 | 298 | 3 | 66.8 | 90 | Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks |
| 2001 | Steve Smith, Car. | 74 | 10 | 154 | 0 | 47.7 | 93 | Patrick Jeffers, M.Muhammad |
| 2020 | Van Jefferson, LAR | 57 | 19 | 220 | 1 | 46.9 | 122 | Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods |
| 2018 | James Washington, Pitt. | 60 | 16 | 217 | 1 | 43.7 | 125 | Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster |
| 2008 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 97 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 24.1 | 127 | Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson |
| 2008 | Early Doucet, Ariz. | 81 | 14 | 90 | 0 | 23.0 | 131 | Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin |
| 2003 | Taylor Jacobs, Was. | 44 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 12.7 | 134 | Laveranues Coles, Rod Gardner |
| 2021 | Dee Eskridge, Sea. | 56 | 10 | 64 | 1 | 28.3 | 146 | DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett |
| 1999 | Travis McGriff, Den. | 93 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 | 148 | Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey |
| 2005 | Terrence Murphy, G.B. | 58 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 8.6 | 151 | Javon Walker, Donald Driver |
| 2003 | Kevin Curtis, St.L. | 74 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 5.3 | 156 | Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce |
| 2009 | Brandon Tate, N.E. | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 173 | Wes Welker, Randy Moss |
| 2008 | Jerome Simpson, Cin. | 46 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | 177 | Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson |
| 2002 | Marquis Walker, T.B. | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | K. McCardell, Key. Johnson |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 20 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf |
—Ian Allan