In Week 2, there were a lot of injuries that happened over the weekend, but none more impactful than Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley – especially in Guillotine Leagues, where there’s more importance on the here-and-now. I’ll not only be going over whom to replace them with, but what to bid on each player.
Top Chopped Players:
Given their poor performances in Week 2, here are some of the most relevant names that ended up on the chopping block this week: Trevor Lawrence, A.J. Brown, JaMarr Chase, Calvin Ridley, Breece Hall, Austin Ekeler, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Cooper Kupp, and Kyle Pitts. Some of the names didn’t play, such as Ekeler and Kupp (and some would say you could add Cook and Hall to that list).
Team Assumptions:
The bid amounts are subject to how your team is doing. If you are cruising along just fine, your team is a top-half team after two weeks, and you’ve sustained minimal injuries, congratulations. The bids I recommend should be lowered by roughly 5-8 percent. If your team was nearly chopped this week (like mine), you’re dealing with serious injuries, or you simply won’t get any points out of the player you’ve got to start, consider going above these recommended bids by five to eight percent. If you’re in the middle of the pack, feel free to bid as recommended. For a more detailed and tailored recommendation amount, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @_ColtWilliams. I do a guillotine league post every Tuesday morning. You show me your team and which players are available, and I recommend amounts to bid.
20 percent players:
They were not chopped in many leagues, but in the event Travis Kelce or Justin Jefferson hit waivers, those are the only two players I’d consider dropping over 20 percent of my budget on.
15 percent players:
Among the top chopped players, I’d only consider dropping 15 percent of my budget on Chase. He hasn’t looked great lately (the Bengals in general haven’t), but I expect a bounce back sooner rather than later. People may be put off of him due to his recent performances.
10 percent players:
A.J. Brown, Ridley, and Etienne are the only players who make this budget recommendation. Ekeler could arguably be in this group, but with no timeline to return and the Chargers’ bye week in Week 5, it’s a huge red flag.
5 percent players:
Here come the bulk of the players. I’m adding most of the remaining top chopped stars, but I’ll also be adding in some underperformers who weren’t listed above. Josh Jacobs, Brandon Aiyuk, Miles Sanders, Hall, Ekeler, Harris, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara. Jacobs is my highest-rated player in this tier. He’s getting the bell cow workload, but he isn’t converting with it. The first two matchups weren’t ideal, but in Week 3, he gets the Steelers, who have allowed the most rushing yards so far this season. It’s time to get last year’s leading rusher back on track. Kamara is also an interesting name. With the Saints’ backfield being completely decimated by injuries, Kamara is coming back just in time. You’ll have to wait a week before you get to play him, but I believe now is the time to buy low. The average winning bid for him last week was 8 percent of your budget.
1-3 percent players:
Jerome Ford leads the list here. He could arguably be in the tier above, but with Kareem Hunt coming back to Cleveland, it throws a wrench in the Ford hype train. This is a list of Week 2 underperformers that I wouldn’t spend up on, but you should be casting a low bid on: Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Alexander Mattison, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Joshua Kelley, Cam Akers, Javonte Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Jahan Dotson, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson, Pat Freiermuth, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Kyle Pitts. I don’t recommend spending up on positions you start one of such as quarterback and tight end, unless they are at the tippy top of elite status. The running backs and wide receivers in this tier have red flags and concerns written all over them, but they are still worth rostering if you can obtain them cheaply.
Players on IR:
This specifically goes for Kupp or Taylor, but works for other names that may appear in the future. You’re holding a roster spot for a player you know you won’t have for at least a couple of weeks. These bench spots are so valuable once teams start getting chopped. On a player such as Kupp or Taylor, people will probably outbid you (which, again, is fine, we want others to spend up on players), but I’d be extremely conservative with a maximum of 5 percent of your budget bid.
—Colt Williams
Williams is working towards a degree in economics and statistics at Sonoma State. A United States Air Force veteran, he’s been playing fantasy football since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @_ColtWilliams