With running quarterbacks, one school of thought is that they tend to run more in the postseason; these are big-stage games, with less concern about trying to play the long game of avoiding injuries. But on the one hand, they’re playing against stronger opponents, which should make them less effective. But at the same time,.
There is ample data, of course, to see what’s happened in the past. And those numbers tend to support the theory that running quarterbacks will tend to lean into that ability more in the playoffs.
Josh Allen, as one example, averages 37 rushing yards in regular-season games; he averaged 56 rushing yards in playoff games. And Lamar Jackson averages 64 rushing yards in his career in the regular season; he’s averaged 87 rushing yards in the playoffs.
But rather than look at just a few anecdotal examples, I pulled all of the numbers. In the 32-team era, there are 13 quarterbacks who have averaged at least 15 rushing yards in their regular-season starts, then gone on to start at least five playoff games. All but two of those guys averaged more rushing yards in the postseason.
The numbers aren’t as strong for touchdowns. Of those 13 quarterbacks, only eight averaged more rushing touchdowns in the playoffs.
If we assume the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards, then 10 of our 13 quarterbacks averaged better rushing numbers in their playoff games.
(In the chart below, I’ve got the three who averaged lesser numbers tagged with black dots.)
| RUNNING QUARTERBACKS IN POSTSEASON | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Yds/G | TDR | Yd v. R.S. | TD v. R.S. | Diff |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 84.5 | .67 | 47.9 | .49 | 165.0% |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 86.8 | .50 | 22.6 | .16 | 38.1% |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 37.4 | 1.00 | -8.8 | .17 | 1.2% |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 56.3 | .50 | 18.9 | -.09 | 18.4% |
| • Michael Vick | 5 | 54.2 | .20 | 4.4 | -.09 | -1.6% |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 23.3 | .57 | 7.4 | .33 | 91.0% |
| • Cam Newton | 7 | 36.9 | .29 | -2.0 | -.23 | -22.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 18 | 29.1 | .28 | 9.1 | .15 | 66.3% |
| Russell Wilson | 16 | 32.9 | .19 | 5.5 | .03 | 20.1% |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 31.4 | .14 | 15.9 | .05 | 91.6% |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 17.0 | .20 | .4 | .00 | 0.8% |
| Donovan McNabb | 11 | 23.0 | .09 | 6.5 | -.08 | 6.2% |
| • Andrew Luck | 8 | 23.5 | .00 | 5.0 | -.16 | -16.8% |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
While I’ve got these numbers in front of me, I’m reminded that Josh Allen has been remarkably productive in the playoffs. Since 2002, 37 quarterbacks have started at least five playoff games. He’s been at least 2 points per game better than all of them.
Allen has averaged 4 more points per game in the playoffs than he has in the regular season.
Active quarterbacks on this list are tagged with black dots. I see Jared Goff down near the bottom, last among those with at least 8 starts. (I’m not suggesting this means that he’ll fizzle when the Lions join the fray next week; these are simply the numbers from their previous games.)
| FANTASY POINTS PER GAME IN THE PLAYOFFS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts/G |
| • Josh Allen | 10 | 272.3 | 2.10 | .40 | 56.3 | .50 | 30.6 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 229.0 | 1.17 | .83 | 84.5 | .67 | 28.6 |
| • Patrick Mahomes | 18 | 285.3 | 2.28 | .44 | 29.1 | .28 | 28.0 |
| • Dak Prescott | 7 | 280.3 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 23.3 | .57 | 27.8 |
| • Lamar Jackson | 6 | 220.7 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 86.8 | .50 | 26.7 |
| • Matthew Stafford | 8 | 307.9 | 1.88 | .75 | 8.4 | .38 | 26.0 |
| Kurt Warner | 6 | 288.5 | 2.67 | .67 | .2 | .00 | 25.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 21 | 280.7 | 2.14 | .62 | 13.6 | .19 | 25.1 |
| • Jalen Hurts | 5 | 217.4 | 1.00 | .40 | 37.4 | 1.00 | 24.6 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 249.3 | 2.00 | .29 | 31.4 | .14 | 24.5 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 260.1 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 36.9 | .29 | 24.1 |
| Drew Brees | 18 | 298.1 | 2.06 | .83 | 2.8 | .00 | 23.4 |
| Tom Brady | 45 | 285.1 | 1.93 | .87 | 2.5 | .13 | 23.0 |
| • Russell Wilson | 16 | 236.6 | 1.56 | .75 | 32.9 | .19 | 22.5 |
| Andrew Luck | 8 | 281.8 | 1.50 | 1.63 | 23.5 | .00 | 22.4 |
| Matt Ryan | 10 | 267.2 | 2.00 | .70 | 4.3 | .10 | 22.4 |
| Nick Foles | 6 | 272.2 | 1.83 | .83 | .0 | .17 | 21.9 |
| Donovan McNabb | 11 | 253.0 | 1.45 | 1.09 | 23.0 | .09 | 21.3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23 | 259.7 | 1.57 | 1.22 | 10.7 | .13 | 21.1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 214.8 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 23.0 | .60 | 20.6 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 11 | 249.2 | 1.64 | .82 | 10.8 | .09 | 20.6 |
| Peyton Manning | 25 | 276.7 | 1.56 | 1.00 | .6 | .08 | 20.6 |
| • Joe Burrow | 7 | 260.9 | 1.29 | .57 | 14.4 | .14 | 20.5 |
| Brett Favre | 8 | 239.4 | 1.88 | 1.38 | .9 | .00 | 19.6 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 224.8 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 17.0 | .20 | 18.9 |
| Michael Vick | 5 | 180.2 | .80 | .80 | 54.2 | .20 | 18.8 |
| Philip Rivers | 12 | 247.1 | 1.33 | .83 | 3.8 | .08 | 18.6 |
| • Joe Flacco | 16 | 220.6 | 1.63 | .75 | 6.3 | .06 | 18.5 |
| Eli Manning | 12 | 234.6 | 1.50 | .75 | 3.8 | .00 | 18.1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 8 | 230.9 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 2.9 | .00 | 17.8 |
| • Brock Purdy | 6 | 223.8 | 1.00 | .17 | 16.3 | .17 | 17.8 |
| Chad Pennington | 6 | 236.3 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 3.3 | .00 | 17.5 |
| Tony Romo | 6 | 219.3 | 1.33 | .33 | 4.3 | .00 | 16.7 |
| • Jared Goff | 8 | 247.8 | .88 | .25 | 3.9 | .00 | 16.3 |
| Mark Sanchez | 6 | 192.5 | 1.50 | .50 | 1.5 | .00 | 15.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 150.8 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 10.6 | .20 | 15.4 |
| • Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 160.3 | .67 | 1.00 | 1.0 | .00 | 10.8 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan