Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. COVID-replacement waiver options. Can James Robinson turn things around? How to handle the extra week in the schedule. Late-season waiver-wire strategies. And more.
Question 1
Long-time subscriber, thanks for the great intel. One I can't figure out is why you keep ranking James Robinson so high each week. Last week 6 carries for 4 yards, the week before that, 24 yards and a fumble. You obviously know something we don't, but how can we trust that guy during a playoff run? I have Kamara (who you have ranked behind Robinson), Barkley, Sanders and Gordon. I need 3 and the highest projections that you have show Robinson as the best pick this week out of all of them. Please tell me why so I can feel good about plugging him in.
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
Robinson has been good at times. He put up 134 and 147 total yards in early-season games against Arizona and Tennessee, and he’s got two other games over 100 yards (most recently in Week 12 against Atlanta). He’s a good player, and Jacksonville’s offensive line isn’t a disaster. This week they’re at home against worst run defense in the league. The Texans have allowed 157, 238 and 193 rushing yards in their last three games, with multiple rushing touchdowns in all of those games. Rashaad Penny just had a career day against them. And I’m thinking Jacksonville will get a spark out of firing Urban Meyer – maybe that helps to reset a lot of attitudes as everyone looks to turn the page. I would definitely start Robinson before all of those other backs you listed.
Question 2
Ian any thoughts on unsung heroes who may help win FF championships. Damien Williams comes to mind a couple years ago. Thank you.
Robert McKinlay (Belews Creek, NC)
With this currently COVID outbreak, I think the waiver wire will play a larger role in these late-season games than in typical years. They’re not moving games this year, so I think we’re going to see some teams in the next few weeks that are duct-taped together with practice squad players. The Browns, Bears, Rams and Washington right now all have about a third of their roster on the COVID-19 reserve list. Consider, for example, Derek Carr. Previously I didn’t think there was any way you would want to use him at Cleveland in December. But he could be working against a secondary missing half of its starters. I’m not promising Carr will put up top-10 quarterbacking numbers, but I think it changes the conversation. And it makes me feel pretty good about Hunter Renfrow again catching a ton of balls. Or think about the Dolphins. They’re playing at home against a Jets defense that’s allowed the most points in the league, but Myles Gaskin and Jaylen Waddle are both on the COVID list. Waddle has been catching 8-9 passes every week, and somebody will need to step into that kind of role. Albert Wilson (and I can’t believe I’m saying this) might actually be pretty good in PPR formats. And Miami will have a productive running back against that defense (which has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league). Not sure if that back will be Gaskin (I think he’ll be activated) or someone else. Salvon Ahmed and Phillip Lindsay are both on the COVID list. Malcolm Brown might be activated. Duke Johnson is the only running back currently on their roster.
Question 3
Why isn't the NFL using the flex scheduling for SNF more? Week 14 we got the 4-8 Bears. Week 15 we get the Saints (also with a losing record). Week 16 we get Washington. Each week there are much better games. Any insight? I know some of the games are prioritized for CBS or FOX, but there has to be something better than those lame offenses that night.
Josh Obusek (Pittsburgh, PA)
Fair question. There’s been only one schedule change this year, with the Denver at Kansas City game replacing 49ers-Seahawks in Week 13. In Week 16, you could argue that Bills-Patriots would be more compelling than WFT-Cowboys. Maybe they’re figuring they don’t want to give people overload on New England (Bills-Pats had Monday Night Football a couple weeks ago, and New England’s playing on Saturday this week). Or maybe they just don’t want to make changes unless it’s a clear, huge upgrade. TVs will turn on for Washington at Dallas. And the last two games have featured Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. There’s a Sunday Night Football page on Wikipedia. It indicates that changes aren’t common. In the last 10 years, there have been 1, 0, 3, 0, 4, 2, 0, 4, 2 and 2 games flexed.
Question 4
I am commissioner of a 10-team league and am looking for some ideas for how to handle the longer, 18-week season. Our usual format is two 5-team divisions; each team plays their division foes twice and those in the other division once – very common format. We follow the 13-week regular season with 3 rounds of playoffs and wrap things up in Week 16. This schedule is perfectly balanced and worked quite well for many years. We didn't make any changes to our schedule for this season but didn't realize that there would be Week 14 byes during the fantasy playoffs. We've decided to live with it this year and make some changes for next season. What are some of the best ways that you've seen the extra week handled? Love to hear what you and others are doing with the extra week.
KW Song (Pittsburgh, PA)
In a league with only 10 teams, I’d like to see every team place each of the other teams twice. That’s 18 per team. The season is only 18 weeks long, of course, and best to stay away from Week 18, with too many key players sitting out. You want to crown the champion in Week 17. So you need to set aside Weeks 16-17 or Weeks 15-17 for playoff games, so you’ve got either 14 or 15 weeks to work with. So how about some weeks where there are doubleheader games? That is, Team A is not only playing Team B, it also has a separate game against Team C. This allows every team to play 18 regular-season games, facing every opponent twice. Those double-header games would be best scheduled into NFL weeks where there are no teams on byes. Readers, I’m sure, will chime in with other suggestions.
Question 5
Can you talk about waiver wire strategies for the playoffs? I have the first waiver wire pickup option but with Covid this week I may need to try and grab a WR? There always seems to be three or four grouped together. Is it better to wait and pick up best available after waiver wire? Or pick up best available with waiver wire? Because the #1 waiver wire next week means nothing if you lose and you’re out. Your thoughts and strategies.
JON CASASENT (Barker, TX)
I would be looking at the difference in quality between the top few prospects. There’s A and B and C, and there’s also the decent likelihood that some other player becomes relevant when some other starter is ruled out on Friday or Saturday. In general, I would use that No. 1 waiver claim only if I felt good about the player. If you’re not sure he’s better than the other few options, I would think there would be some value in hanging onto the top waiver spot. As rapidly as teams and rosters are changing right now, I would think there probably will be some really good player available on the waiver wire next week.
Question 6
I bought my first copy of FFI in October 1988 (been buying it ever since), started a league in '89, and been running it ever since. I have been to 13 Fantasy Bowls and credit you and FFI for my success. My question, however, has to do with my wife's league. She plays in a 12-team league (all guys but her; she's been to the Fantasy Bowl all three years she's been in it and won it once). Their regular season ended last night and they have an 8-way tied for first place at 8-6. Have you ever heard of such a thing?
KEVIN CRONIN (Andover, NJ)
That’s really cool (and really weird). I’ve seen plenty of three- and four-way ties over the years, but an eight-way tie hardly seems possible. Thanks for sharing. And thanks for sticking with us all of these years. I appreciate it.
Question 7
I'm in a keeper league, so I always have an eye on who will be my four protected players. Justin Herbert, Jonathan Taylor, and Davante Adams are slam dunks. Until midseason I would have said DK Metcalf, but again this year he's become David Boston in the second half. I'll probably keep him since the other candidates on my roster are part of committees -- Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and AJ Dillon. I also have Mike Williams, but I no longer believe in him. Your thoughts on my 4th keeper?
Russell Pitts (Fallbrook, CA)
David Boston. That’s a really good comp. I wish I had thought of it. They’ve very similar players. They’ve both really big, and with almost unbelievable measurables. Guys that big aren’t supposed to be that fast. With Boston, it looked briefly like he was going to be one of the top few receivers in the league – a Terrell Owens kind of guy – but he fizzled quickly and then suffered a knee injury that derailed his career. I’m not suggesting Metcalf is headed for a similar fate, but let’s see how things transpire in the next month and during the offseason. I would think that any of those four guys – Harris, Stevenson, Dillon – could be your fourth keeper. If we’re picking today, I’m going with Metcalf. (Tyler Lockett, by the way, just got sent to the COVID-19 reserve list, so the Seahawks likely will be looking to use Metcalf heavily this week against the Rams).
Question 8
Now that we have reached fantasy playoffs this is a question for teams in keeper leagues that might be able to add a player in a down year that might have value next year in a different situation. For example: new team, coaching change, qb change, etc. Thanks for a great season. Let’s go championships.
JOSEPH PATTISON (Metairie, LA)
I’ve been hitting the dynasty rankings each Saturday, rotating between the four positions. I hit quarterbacks last week. I’ll be doing running backs on Saturday. (I’ll start in on those rankings later today.) I’ll be going 80 deep, and it will include a number of injured players who aren’t going to play again in 2021 – J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Kenyan Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson). I think you’re most interested in lightly-used youngsters who are going to be big stars in the future, and I don’t see a ton of those guys. AJ Dillon, Javonte Williams and Rhamondre Stevenson are the first who come to mind for me, but all of those guys are seeing too much playing time already to be considered overlooked youngsters. If you were looking for an off-the-radar last-round guy, perhaps Trey Sermon, on the chance he takes a step forward in his second year.
Question 9
Can only keep one defense for the playoffs week 16 and 17 because I need the spot for Rashaad Penny. The Browns or Dolphins Defense. Or should I back off Penny and use the Dolphins week 16 against the Saints and use the Browns against the Steelers week 17.
PAUL NICKAS (Jacksonville, FL)
The Seahawks are playing at home against Chicago and Detroit in Weeks 16 and 17. I would want to keep Penny around for those games. If he plays well enough against the Rams this week, I would think you would have some confidence that Penny might be a decent starter in those next two games. I wouldn’t want to use Cleveland’s defense in Week 16 at Green Bay, so I guess it would be Penny and the Dolphins.
Question 10
I have been offered a trade in my dynasty league, I can have either DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle for Josh Jacobs. First would you make the trade, and second which receiver would you take?
David Jung (San Francisco, CA)
That’s a tough question, and I think you can make a case for any of the three guys. Jacobs is a running back, and that’s a more valuable, harder to fill position. But he’s had a lot of injuries – can’t seem to stay healthy – and they’ll likely have a new coach and a new offense next year. (Hopefully also a better offensive line). Waddle right now is catching a ton of balls, but I haven’t seen him do anything that’s underscored why they selected him with a top-6 overall pick. My sense is that Smith is probably a better receiver, but he’s been the opposite – stuck in an offense where they’ve been running the heck out of it. If the Eagles switch quarterbacks in the offense, they’ll also be going to a completely different style of offense, and we’ll get to see Smith to a lot more.
Question 11
In the playoffs this week. Have two tough lineup decisions for Week 15: Rashaad Penny or Darrell Henderson. And Eagles defense or Bills defense. Your ratings for my league have each pair ranked almost identical. Love your product.
Chris Tilley (Riverview, FL)
If we’re picking right now, I will take Penny over Henderson. I don’t know, but Sony Michel has played well enough the last two games that I believe he will start for the Rams and get more carries than Henderson. With Penny, I have more confidence that he’ll be his team’s main ball carrier (particularly with Alex Collins on the COVID-19 reserve list). If Michel winds up on that COVID list before Sunday, than I would want Henderson. With the defenses, there are two variables we can look at later in the week. Is Taylor Heinicke playing? If he’s out, Philadelphia would start to look like an even better choice (particularly with Kyle Allen on the COVID list). And let’s also look at the weather, particularly in Buffalo.
Question 12
I want to add a COVID handcuff for Montgomery, and I am not sure who is backing him up: Williams or Herbert. I would hate to have him test positive right before the Monday night game when I would have no other options.
Walker Fenci (Denver, CO)
That’s a cool strategy. Makes sense for these late-season games. In the case of the Bears, Damien Williams was their backup running back at the beginning of the season. When Montgomery got hurt earlier in the year, Williams replaced him in the starting lineup but got hurt himself early in his first game. Then they plugged in Herbert, and he exceeded expectations, running for 97 and 100 yards in starts against the two Bays. If Montgomery were to scratch now, I can’t say for sure which guy would be their featured back. They could use a combination of both of them. Williams is better and more trusted in passing situations, making it easier for him to contribute in PPR formats. But if I had to guess which back would run for more yards, I would go with Herbert.
Question 13
I have 3 players not posted on this week’s blackout list, what's up with that?
Dave Garner (Mossyrock, WA)
In the Blackout competition, not all players are listed as options. Geno Smith, for example, is currently on Seattle’s 53-man roster. He’s not listed as an option because the assumption is that nobody would select him. Typically we list only the top 1-2 players at each position on each team. Sometimes there’s an injury or COVID test situation late in the week that creates a viable starter who isn’t available as an option. That’s unfortunate, but we’ve gone that route rather than having a confusion ballot with hundreds of players.