Rookie drafts are occurring in some dynasty leagues this month (if they haven't already happened), and I expect the first round will be wide receiver-heavy in most of them. That was the case in the actual NFL Draft, with four selected in the top 12 picks. I wondered how often those early selection pan out in the NFL -- what are the odds of them busting?
I looked at all the wide receivers selected with a top 15 draft pick this century, like Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave (pictured) and Jameson Williams were in April. There have been 41 since 2000, so 2 per year on average. Then I pulled out the best season (PPR rankings) for each player.
Of those 41 previous wide receivers, almost exactly half of them (21) had a top-20 fantasy season at some point. That alone doesn't make those picks a success story, however, since some of them only did it once and had an otherwise forgettable careers: Koren Robinson, Michael Clayton, Peter Warrick and Rod Gardner. No way would those players be selected in the top 15 again.
Better to say that 12 (so a little more than a quarter of them) had at least one top-10 season. Roy Williams had one, and his overall career wasn't successful, and the same can be said about Braylon Edwards. But most of those guys did it multiple times, and many are among the best wideouts in the game over the last 20 years: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green.
Of the 20 wide receivers from this group yet to record a top-20 season, a couple are just getting started and might well do it in the next year or two: DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy. A couple of the others have at least been decent pros: Corey Davis, and Charger Mike Williams.
But 14 of them didn't ever record a top-20 season, and most of those weren't particularly close to it. Those are the disappointments: Kevin White, Corey Coleman, David Terrell, etc.
The best seasons from those 41 top-15 wide receiver picks from this century are below. Historically, looks like about a 1-in-3 chance that the players selected never come close to living up to expectations. Hope you don't pick that guy in your rookie draft.
| TOP 15 WIDE RECEIVER PICKS, BEST NFL SEASONS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rk |
| 3 | 2009 | Andre Johnson | 171 | 101 | 1569 | 15.5 | 9 | 1 |
| 2 | 2012 | Calvin Johnson | 204 | 122 | 1964 | 16.1 | 5 | 1 |
| 6 | 2015 | Julio Jones | 203 | 136 | 1871 | 13.8 | 8 | 2 |
| 3 | 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 154 | 96 | 1431 | 14.9 | 12 | 2 |
| 7 | 2016 | Mike Evans | 173 | 96 | 1321 | 13.8 | 12 | 3 |
| 4 | 2013 | A.J. Green | 178 | 98 | 1426 | 14.6 | 11 | 4 |
| 3 | 2007 | Braylon Edwards | 154 | 80 | 1289 | 16.1 | 16 | 4 |
| 12 | 2016 | Odell Beckham | 169 | 101 | 1367 | 13.5 | 10 | 4 |
| 5 | 2021 | JaMarr Chase | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 18.0 | 13 | 5 |
| 13 | 2006 | Lee Evans | 137 | 82 | 1292 | 15.8 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | 2006 | Roy Williams | 151 | 82 | 1310 | 16.0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | 2019 | Amari Cooper | 119 | 79 | 1189 | 15.1 | 8 | 10 |
| 14 | 2019 | DeVante Parker | 128 | 72 | 1202 | 16.7 | 9 | 11 |
| 8 | 2005 | Plaxico Burress | 166 | 76 | 1214 | 16.0 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 6 | 12 |
| 10 | 2016 | Michael Crabtree | 145 | 89 | 1003 | 11.3 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | 2002 | Koren Robinson | 141 | 78 | 1240 | 15.9 | 5 | 14 |
| 15 | 2004 | Michael Clayton | 122 | 80 | 1193 | 14.9 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | 2003 | Peter Warrick | 122 | 79 | 819 | 10.4 | 7 | 16 |
| 15 | 2002 | Rod Gardner | 141 | 71 | 1006 | 14.2 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | 2015 | Sammy Watkins | 96 | 60 | 1047 | 17.5 | 9 | 20 |
| 13 | 2005 | Donte Stallworth | 129 | 70 | 945 | 13.5 | 7 | 23 |
| 10 | 2002 | Travis Taylor | 118 | 61 | 869 | 14.3 | 6 | 25 |
| 13 | 2013 | Michael Floyd | 113 | 65 | 1041 | 16.0 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 | 2015 | Tavon Austin | 87 | 52 | 473 | 9.1 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | 2011 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 115 | 64 | 975 | 15.2 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | 2020 | Corey Davis | 92 | 65 | 984 | 15.1 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 132 | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 | 29 |
| 10 | 2021 | DeVonta Smith | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | 2018 | Mike Williams (Clemson) | 66 | 43 | 664 | 15.4 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | 2008 | Ted Ginn | 93 | 56 | 790 | 14.1 | 2 | 33 |
| 9 | 2007 | Reggie Williams | 60 | 38 | 629 | 16.6 | 10 | 35 |
| 10 | 2010 | Mike Williams (USC) | 110 | 65 | 751 | 11.6 | 2 | 41 |
| 15 | 2020 | Jerry Jeudy | 113 | 52 | 856 | 16.5 | 3 | 45 |
| 8 | 2004 | David Terrell | 90 | 42 | 699 | 16.6 | 1 | 55 |
| 9 | 2019 | John Ross | 56 | 28 | 506 | 18.1 | 3 | 74 |
| 7 | 2006 | Troy Williamson | 76 | 37 | 455 | 12.3 | 0 | 77 |
| 15 | 2016 | Corey Coleman | 73 | 33 | 413 | 12.5 | 3 | 82 |
| 12 | 2021 | Henry Ruggs | 36 | 24 | 469 | 19.5 | 2 | 86 |
| 2 | 2003 | Charles Rogers | 52 | 22 | 243 | 11.1 | 3 | 88 |
| 7 | 2016 | Kevin White | 36 | 19 | 187 | 9.8 | 0 | 122 |
--Andy Richardson