After a quiet Monday, Tuesday was a busy day for free agent running backs. Arguably the two best backs available, or at least two of the top four or five, signed in what were almost definitely the two very best landing spots.
First Rashaad Penny signed with the Eagles, which is exciting. Philadelphia is letting Miles Sanders walk, and Penny should be the main runner on what was the NFC's best team a year ago. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will have supporting, passing-down roles, but Penny will be the No. 1.
Only question is if he can stay healthy, and clearly there's considerable doubt there. He hasn't appeared in more than 10 games since his rookie season; just 5 with Seattle last year before suffering a season-ending broken leg. The paltry size of his contract (1 year, $1.35 million; reportedly worth "up to" $2.1 million) is actually less than Scott signed for (1 year, $2 million). It's also less than another ex-Seahawk, Travis Homer (2 years, up to $4.5 million) just signed for, with Chicago. Either Penny isn't fully healthy now, teams don't believe he can stay healthy, or his agent has done him a disservice -- hard to believe a guy who averaged over 6.0 yards per carry the last two seasons couldn't land a better deal.
But Penny's deal was overshadowed by the Lions signing David Montgomery last night. If Penny's deal looked a little cheap, Montgomery's looked a little generous: 3 years, $18 million. Maybe it's backloaded, but it has $11 million in guarantees; Montgomery's done well for himself and it's abundantly clear that he'll be the main back operating behind one of the league's best offensive lines, and in one of its best ground games.
Philadelphia and Detroit ranked 4th and 11th, respectively, in rushing a year ago, scoring 32 and 23 touchdowns -- No. 1 and No. 3 in that regard. But if you remove quarterback rushing from the equation, the Lions look even better.
Of Philadelphia's 32 rushing scores, a league-high 14 were scored by non-running backs: 13 by Jalen Hurts, 1 by Gardner Minshew. For the Lions, all 23 were scored by running backs: 17 by Jamaal Williams, who will be signing with a new team, probably in the next day or two, and 6 by D'Andre Swift (5) and Justin Jackson (1).
Table shows running back-only production from last season, sorted by touchdowns. Detroit and Philadelphia ranked 1st and 3rd in scoring and 7th and 10th in yards.
| RB-ONLY RUSHING, 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Detroit | 427 | 1884 | 4.41 | 23 |
| Dallas | 462 | 2044 | 4.42 | 22 |
| Philadelphia | 368 | 1745 | 4.74 | 18 |
| Cleveland | 438 | 2018 | 4.61 | 15 |
| Minnesota | 357 | 1497 | 4.19 | 15 |
| LA Chargers | 344 | 1376 | 4.00 | 15 |
| Atlanta | 455 | 2209 | 4.85 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 392 | 1902 | 4.85 | 13 |
| Tennessee | 410 | 1813 | 4.42 | 13 |
| Carolina | 415 | 1893 | 4.56 | 12 |
| Las Vegas | 378 | 1809 | 4.79 | 12 |
| NY Giants | 380 | 1673 | 4.40 | 12 |
| Arizona | 316 | 1298 | 4.11 | 12 |
| Jacksonville | 359 | 1701 | 4.74 | 11 |
| Seattle | 351 | 1679 | 4.78 | 11 |
| LA Rams | 320 | 1310 | 4.09 | 11 |
| New England | 354 | 1663 | 4.70 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh | 384 | 1554 | 4.05 | 10 |
| Miami | 335 | 1501 | 4.48 | 10 |
| Kansas City | 335 | 1500 | 4.48 | 10 |
| Green Bay | 410 | 1929 | 4.70 | 9 |
| Baltimore | 352 | 1731 | 4.92 | 9 |
| Chicago | 368 | 1650 | 4.48 | 9 |
| NY Jets | 338 | 1410 | 4.17 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | 311 | 1238 | 3.98 | 9 |
| Denver | 367 | 1540 | 4.20 | 8 |
| Indianapolis | 382 | 1605 | 4.20 | 7 |
| Buffalo | 291 | 1418 | 4.87 | 7 |
| Washington | 433 | 1676 | 3.87 | 5 |
| Houston | 332 | 1260 | 3.80 | 5 |
| New Orleans | 330 | 1280 | 3.88 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 343 | 1230 | 3.59 | 4 |
With Montgomery, of course, he's also a receiver. Jamaal Williams caught just 12 passes in this offense last year, while Swift caught 48, but the gap will likely be a little closer between the two backs now. Montgomery averages 43 catches the last three years; last year he caught 85 percent of the passes thrown his way (34 of 40). Maybe Swift will take more of those chances away from him, but Montgomery's ability in this regard suggests he'll get a healthy share of them.
This landing spot makes it fair to wonder if Montgomery will be a top-10 running back next season, and perhaps an early second-round pick in fantasy leagues. He has one top-5 fantasy season (PPR), in 2020; 19th-24th the other three years. As for Swift, well, great running game or no, will be tough for him to be a big factor in this backfield. Not a great day for his dynasty fortunes.
--Andy Richardson