I am not a fan of the rookie receivers. I think it’s going to be a down year for them. But that said, they’re tending to do more earlier than they have in the past.

I think it’s through some combination of them getting more pass-catching reps at the high school and college levels, along with coaches doing a better job of utilizing them. As outlined in S.C. Gwynne’s “The Perfect Pass” (which I’m finishing up right now) coaches are better now at drawing up plays that are easy to teach but difficult to defend. They’re going a better job of using space and route adjustments, along with adjusting plays at the line of scrimmage and using tempo.

And they’ve been helped along by some rule adjustments.

Whatever the reason, we’re seeing more receivers have success early.

With numbers in general growing, best to not look at stat totals but instead where the player placed at his position.

In the past 10 years, 27 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers (that’s using PPR scoring, results might vary slightly using other scoring systems). That includes four receivers who’ve finished with top-10 numbers – JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham.

In the previous 10 years, only 16 rookie receivers finished with top-30 numbers, barely half as many. And with only one (Anquan Boldin) ranking higher than 14th.

If we got back to the ‘90s, only 10 wide receivers in that decade finished with top-30 numbers, and with only one (Randy Moss) ranking higher than 12th.

In the ‘80s, I see 16 finishing in the top 30, with three sneaking into the top 10 (Bill Brook, Eddie Brown, Cris Collinsworth). It’s a different game now.

The overall trends suggest that going forward, there should be about three rookie receivers in the top 30 in a typical year. I don’t see that happening this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks good, but I fear he’ll be crowded out, with the Seahawks already having a pair of standout receivers. Maybe one of the other first-rounders – Zay Flowers (pictured), Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston – is a lot better than I’m expecting, but right now I have zero interest in selecting any of those guys among the top 40 receivers (I see those three as late-late round gambles). Similarly, four other receivers were picked in the second round, but I don’t see any of them as anything more than a flyer-type possibility right now.

With the game seemingly changing and a lot of darts being thrown, probably one of those rookies will surprisingly finish with top-30 numbers. But it’s not going to be the usual three, I think.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (last 10 yrs)
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRk
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.81145513306.65
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.8814007274.26
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.9211379259.77
2014Odell Beckham, NYG91130512297.08
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.10410157247.812
2014Mike Evans, T.B.68105112245.113
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.7310089227.816
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.6159312219.018
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.7110468223.618
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.6482110208.820
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.589178197.720
2022Garrett Wilson, NYJ8311034217.721
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.7210706214.721
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.909126227.322
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.749357219.722
2019A.J. Brown, Ten.5210519217.122
2020Chase Claypool, Pitt.6287311216.923
2022Chris Olave, N.O.7210424202.224
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR628695178.925
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.678728202.225
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.659826200.027
2022Drake London, Atl.728664184.628
2020Tee Higgins, Cin.679086196.628
2019DK Metcalf, Sea.589007193.129
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.649165187.630
2019Terry McLaurin, Was.589197191.930
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia.847585189.430
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (2003-12)
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRk
2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz.10113778290.73
2008Eddie Royal, Den.919805231.914
2004Michael Clayton, T.B.8011937244.314
2010Mike Williams, T.B.6596411227.416
2006Marques Colston, N.O.7010388221.816
2011A.J. Green, Cin.6510577218.017
2011Julio Jones, Atl.549598203.521
2007Dwayne Bowe, K.C.709955199.522
2003Andre Johnson, Hou.669764186.622
2009Percy Harvin, Min.607908200.523
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind.508618187.028
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac.648655184.829
2009Austin Collie, Ind.606767169.729
2004Lee Evans, Buff.488439194.829
2011Torrey Smith, Balt.508417180.030
2008DeSean Jackson, Phil.629124186.830
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (1990-99)
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRk
1998Randy Moss, Min.69131317306.72
1996Terry Glenn, N.E.9011326243.412
1995Joey Galloway, Sea.6710399240.317
1996Eddie Kennison, St.L.5492411212.419
1999Kevin Johnson, Cle.669868212.022
1996Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ638448197.423
1996Marvin Harrison, Ind.648368197.124
1994Darnay Scott, Cin.468665175.925
1991Lawrence Dawsey, T.B.558184161.730
1990Ricky Proehl, Phoe.568024160.630
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (1980-89)
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRk
1986Bill Brooks, Ind.6511318226.68
1985Eddie Brown, Cin.539428208.19
1981Cris Collinsworth, Cin.6710098215.910
1984Louis Lipps, Pitt.4586011204.113
1986Ernest Givins, Hou.6110624206.015
1983Willie Gault, Chi.408368174.718
1984Bobby Johnson, NYG487957169.523
1984Daryl Turner, Sea.3571510166.524
1985Jerry Rice, S.F.499274168.325
1988Tim Brown, Oak.437257162.527
1980Art Monk, Was.587973155.727
1989Shawn Collins, Atl.588623162.228
1989Andre Rison, Ind.528204159.829
1988Brian Blades, Sea.406828158.629
1989Hart Lee Dykes, N.E.497955158.530
1986Mike Sherrard, Dall.417445146.530

—Ian Allan