Overview: Logically, the 49ers shouldn't have much chance in this game. They failed to score an offensive touchdown while upsetting the Packers, while the Rams -- but for a trio of lost fumbles last week -- would have won both of their playoff games easily. And yet, San Francisco has won all six meetings over the last three seasons.
Games two and three years ago don't matter much; this Rams team is better than the Jared Goff ones. This season's losses involved the Rams digging a huge early hole with a pair of interceptions, and a Week 18 game they frittered away; probably should have won. In any case, the recent history, which most are aware of, helps explain the betting lines. The Rams are favored by just 3.5 points, with an over-under of 46.5 -- a 25-22 type of game. The AFC game is projected 8 points higher, so if you're looking into No. 3 receivers or No. 2 running backs, probably best to consider players from that game.
49ERS:
It's a little hard to figure how San Francisco is playing in this game. Since going up 23-7 midway through the third quarter at Dallas, its offense has produced all of 2 field goals (and one of those on a drive that started at midfield) in the last five-plus quarters. But here we are, and San Francisco has proven it belongs on the same field with the Rams, winning both regular-season meetings -- quite easily in Week 10 (31-10). Its offense, believe it or not, averaged slightly more total yards per game during the season (376-371), and only 2 fewer points. We're sticking fairly close to the averages, projecting San Francisco for slightly under 3 touchdowns and 24-25 points. We're thinking they'll come up short, but it wouldn't be shocking if they sneak away with another win.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the oddball among the Championship Game quarterbacks. His own coach used three first-round picks to draft his replacement less than a year ago. But whether he deserves much credit or not, he's 4-1 as a postseason starter and his team is on the brink of the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. He's managed to do something right, even if most recently it's been not messing up enough for his team to lose. Strictly in fantasy terms, no one would seriously rank Garoppolo anywhere but 4th at his position this week. Through two games he's averaged 152 passing yards, with no touchdowns, and his 2 interceptions in those games were costly -- the first helped Dallas get back in a game that seemed all but over, while the second took points off the board at Green Bay. The Rams had 19 interceptions and 50 sacks (3rd in both) during the season, so the plan should be to hide Garoppolo as much as possible this week.
On Garoppolo's behalf, he had a credible season, averaging 254 passing yards (slightly more than in San Francisco's Super Bowl year) with 23 total touchdowns in 15 games. Just 182 yards, albeit with 2 TDs, in the Week 10 win, which was heavily swung by Matthew Stafford throwing interceptions on his first two drives, including a Pick Six, helping San Francisco take a 14-0 lead. He then threw for 316 and a score in the Week 18 win at Los Angeles, a game where the Rams built an early 17-0 lead.
This game should be competitive, with the 49ers less likely to be sitting on a lead or controlling things on the ground; that could enable Garoppolo to finish with only slightly below average yards and 1-2 TDs, but with just 1 a lot more likely. The Rams were a bottom-10 pass defense during the season, allowing 263 yards per game, but just 17 touchdown passes (2nd-fewest). Garoppolo scored 3 TDs on the ground, but doesn't actually run much at all (51 yards all season).
An additional concern for San Francisco involves its line against the Rams' top-3 pass rush. Trent Williams suffered an ankle injury at Green Bay and didn't practice on Wednesday. Garoppolo was sacked just 29 times during the season, but that includes 3 in the game at Los Angeles (where he was also intercepted twice) and 4 more last week. Williams will likely play, but just another reason to think the team will try to limit how often they pass it.
San Francisco would doubtless prefer to control things on the ground -- on the season they were 7th in rushing -- but that won't be easy. The Rams were a lot better defending the run (6th) than the pass, and they'll definitely be loading up against the run game, hoping to force Garoppolo into a careless throw or two. But this is not a conventional ground game, and the Rams didn't fully take it away in either matchup during the season. They did have some success, though. In Week 11, Elijah Mitchell ran for 91 yards, but that was on 27 carries (so just 3.4 per attempt). In the rematch, Mitchell was a little better (21 for 85, 4.0), though still below average. Deebo Samuel was the key difference-maker in both games (and for most of the season, really). In his last 10 games (starting with the home game against this defense) he's averaged 45 rushing yards, with touchdowns on the ground in seven of those games (including both Rams contests). Nobody has really been able to stop him, and it probably won't happen here. Mitchell will be the main runner, but Samuel is about as likely account for any rushing scores. And there should be at least one; while tough against the run, the Rams allowed 18 rushing scores, with was a bottom-10 figure. Neither Jeff Wilson nor JaMycal Hasty should play much; neither touched the ball at Green Bay. The 2nd-busiest running back is more likely to be Kyle Juszczyk, and he averaged a modest 19 yards per game (14-15 in the playoffs), with 1 TD . Mitchell missed practice Wednesday with a knee issue but he was listed with that a week ago and it didn't limit him against the Packers.
Passing production should be modest, but Deebo Samuel will get his numbers anyway. Some of it will come as a runner, and some will come with him turning short throws into longer plays. He averaged 88 receiving yards during the season, and 95-97, with 1 TD, in the two Rams games. With the kind of routes he'll run, tough for any secondary to take him away (and as noted, the Rams were just 24th against the pass, even with Jalen Ramsey, and are now working without their regular safety tandem).
Lesser passing production is more likely to affect the other involved wideouts, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. Aiyuk had been on a nice little tear, catching 15 passes for an average of 89 yards in a three-game stretch that included the game at Los Angeles. Just 3 for 26 in the home win, though, and he didn't catch his only target last week (on a play initially ruled a fumble). San Francisco might be passing a little more in this one, with weather not a factor and the possibility of the team falling behind. But Aiyuk will likely be no better than the No. 3 for targets. Jennings was the star of the last meeting (6 for 94, with 2 TDs), but that was his only game with even 30 yards in his last six. Unlikely that Garoppolo is throwing for over 300 again; Jennings will likely need to catch a touchdown to really pay off. San Francisco activated Mohamed Sanu from IR this week, but he's unlikely to have a role.
George Kittle is one of the best two tight ends still playing (arguably in the league), but his role as a receiver has been inconsistent of late. He's finished under 40 yards in six of his last 10 contests, including the Week 18 game. He caught 5 for 50 and a touchdown in the home game. His usage at Green Bay was encouraging (4 for 63, in a game Garoppolo completed just 11 passes), and he has the talent to take over games. Odds are he'll be one of the top 2 targets, helping him relative to players like C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Higbee. But San Francisco will likely try to emphasize the run, with Kittle more of a blocker at times. Just 4 TDs by tight ends against the Rams, although one of those was Kittle himself.
Robbie Gould has some kind of playoff history. In 12 games across six postseasons, he's made all 52 kicks (20 field goals and 32 extra points). That includes 5 field goals the last two weeks, and an average of 8 kicking points in the two Rams games. The expectation is that San Francisco will probably lose (and might be playing from behind in) this game, but in a competitive game between two strong defensive teams, multiple field goals are a possibility. The Rams allowed 30 field goals during the season, 3 (plus a miss from 48 yards) in the two playoff games.
The 49ers Defense could be key to the likelihood of an upset occurring. That's a little strange, since although it had 48 sacks, Matthew Stafford was sacked just 30 times. Stafford threw a league-high 17 interceptions, including 4 that were returned for touchdowns, but San Francisco intercepted just 9 passes during the season. Those season-long numbers tended to go out the window in this series, however. Stafford was intercepted twice in each meeting (accounting for nearly half of San Francisco's total) and he was sacked 7 times in those games. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth (knee) missed the Bucs game, and Stafford took 2 sacks in that one, but Whitworth was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday, an encouraging sign for his availability this week. San Francisco has some potential on returns, with Travis Benjamin on punts and Deebo Samuel (who had a 45-yard return at Green Bay) getting some chances on kickoffs. Benjamin's last touchdown on a return was four years ago, though, while Samuel hasn't traditionally been used on those plays -- not certain he'll get those chances in this one.
--Andy Richardson